An updated scenario typology

Kleiner, 1996

Ringland, 1998

European Environment Agency and ICIS. Cloudy crystal balls: An assessment of recent European and global scenario studies and models. 2000.

Ducot, 1980, A typology for scenarios, Futures, 12, 15, 10.1016/S0016-3287(80)80007-3

N.E. Duncan, P. Wack, Scenarios designed to improve decision making, Planning Review 1994; 22(4): 18-25, 46.

Godet, 1996, Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios, Long Range Planning, 29, 164, 10.1016/0024-6301(96)00004-0

Postma, 1995, Toekomstverkenning met scenarios (Exploring the future using scenarios), Bedrijfskunde, 67, 2

Heugens, 2001, To boldly where no man has gone before: integrating cognitive and physical features in scenario studies, Futures, 33, 861, 10.1016/S0016-3287(01)00023-4

1999

2000

Anastasi, 1999

C. Anastasi, et al. VISIONS Progress Report 1998-99, ICIS: Maastricht, the Netherlands, 1999.

J. Rotmans, et al. Integrated visions for a sustainable Europe: change mental maps, VISIONS Final Report. ICIS: Maastricht, the Netherlands. 2001.

C. Gough, et al. VISONS for the NW: Interim report, September. UMIST and Manchester University: Manchester, UK, 1999.

S. Funtowicz, et al. VISIONS report: Venice 2050, Joint Research Centre: Ispra, Italy, 1999.

Rotmans, 2000, Visions for a sustainable Europe, Futures, 32, 809, 10.1016/S0016-3287(00)00033-1

Van Notten, 2001, The future of scenarios, Scenario and Strategy Planning, 1, 4

Schwartz, 1991

Van der Heijden, 1996

Hammond, 1998

McKiernan, 2001, Scenarios for Scotland, Scenario and Strategy Planning, 2

McKiernan, 2001, The high road, Scenario and Strategy Planning, 3

McKiernan, 2001, The low road: Scenarios for Scotland part II, Scenario and Strategy Planning, 2

P. Le Roux, et al. The Mont Fleur scenarios, in Weekly Mail and The Guardian Weekly, 1992.

Kahane, 1998, Imagining South Africa’s future: How scenarios helped discover common ground

1998, Destino Colombia, Deeper News, 9

Van Asselt, 2001

Godet, 1987

CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, WorldScan. The core version. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis: The Hague, 1999.

UNEP, Global environment outlook 3: Past, present and future perspectives. London: Earthscan, 2002.

Merriam-Webster’s Collegiate Dictionary. http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary.

European Environment Agency, Funtowicz S, et al. Information tools for environmental policy under conditions of complexity. European Environment Agency: Copenhagen, Denmark, 1999.

M.B.A. Van Asselt, Perspectives on uncertainty and risk: The PRIMA approach to decision support, Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer, 2000.

R. Gertner, M. Knez, Speltheorie in de realiteit (Game theory in reality), Het Financieele Dagblad: Supplement on strategy, 2000, p. 12–13.

European Environment Agency. Environment in the European Union at the turn of the Century. European Environment Agency: Copenhagen, Denmark, 1999.

Robinson J. Personal communication. 25 July, 2002.

European Environment Agency, Alcamo J. Scenarios as tools for international environmental assessments. European Environment Agency: Copenhagen, Denmark, 2001.

2002

1992

Höjer, 2000, Determinism and backcasting in future studies, Futures, 32, 613, 10.1016/S0016-3287(00)00012-4

Robinson, 1990, Futures under glass: A recipe for people who hate to predict, Futures, 22, 820, 10.1016/0016-3287(90)90018-D

Dreborg, 1996, Essence of backcasting, Futures, 28, 813, 10.1016/S0016-3287(96)00044-4

Bertrand, 1999

Bertrand, 2001, Governance in a larger and more diverse European Union: lessons from scenarios Europe 2010

Banister, 2000

Digital Thinking Network, The future of television. 2000, www.dtn.net.

Digital Thinking Network, The future of crime. 1997, www.dtn.net.

McCorduck, 1996

T. Nakamae, Three futures for Japan: Views from 2020, The Economist, 1998.

M. Godet, Scenarios and strategies: A toolbox for scenario planning. 1997, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers (CNAM) www.cnam.fr/lips/toolbox.

G.K.C. Pardoe, et al. Technology and the future of Europe: the impact of emerging technologies and the activity and economy of the member states beyond 1992. Luxembourg, Luxembourg, 1992.

1998

P.W.F. van Notten, Create the future: 21–22 June workshop report, ICIS: Maastricht, the Netherlands, 2000.

T. Brussaard, Interview. April, 2002.

Rotmans, 1997

VROM. The Netherlands in 2030—Exploration of spatial perspectives (in Dutch). Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM): The Hague, the Netherlands, 1997.

Stuurgroep Toekomstonderzoek en Strategisch Omgevingsbeleid. Terugblik op toekomstverkenningen (A retrospective look at foresight studies). The Hague: Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR), 2000.

Abeln, 1998, Telekomklant in perspectief (Telecom customer in perspective), Informatie en informatiebeleid, 16, 48

J. Rotmans, et al. Global change and sustainable development: A modelling perspective for the next decade. National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM): Bilthoven, The Netherlands, 1994.

Schneider, 1997, Integrated assessment modeling of climate change: Transparent rational tool for policy making or opaque screen hiding value-laden assumptions?, Environmental Modelling and Assessment, 2, 229, 10.1023/A:1019090117643

Dammers, 2000

CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Scanning the future: A long term scenario study of the world economy 1990–2015. The Hague, the Netherlands: Sdu Uitgeverij, 1992.

CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Globalization, International Transport and the Global Environment: four quantitative scenarios. The Hague, the Netherlands, 1999.

E. Dobbinga, Weerbarstigheid van organisatiecultuur: een organisatie-antropologische studie naar betekenisgeving aan moderne managementinstrumenten (Stubbornness of organisational culture). Delft: Eburon, the Netherlands, 2001.

R. De Jong, De geschiedenis van de toekomst: De ontwikkeling van vier scenarios voor intemediairs op de arbeidsmarkt van 2010 (The history of the future: the development of four scenarios for intermediaries on the job market in 2010), in Faculteit Bedrijfskunde (Faculty of Business Administration). University of Groningen: Groningen, the Netherlands, 1998.

Moss, 2000, Canonical tasks, environments and models for social simulation, Computational & Mathematical Organization Theory, 6, 249, 10.1023/A:1009629602618

Gilbert, 1999

Conte, 1995

European Environment Agency, Toth F. Participatory integrated assessment methods: An assessment of their usefulness to the European Environment Agency. European Environment Agency: Copenhagen, the Netherlands, 2001.

De Niet, 2001

Street, 1997, Scenario workshops: A participatory approach to sustainable urban living?, Futures, 29, 139, 10.1016/S0016-3287(96)00073-0

Schoemaker, 1998, Twenty common pitfalls in scenario planning, 422

Jungermann, 1987, The use of mental models for generating scenarios, 245

Breunesse E et al. Koersen op de toekomst: vier toekomstscenarios voor modern leiderschap (Navigating our way to the future: four scenarios for modern leadership). NIVE, 2000.

R. De Jong, February 2001, interview.

R.P. Bood, T.J.B.M. Postma, Leren met scenarios? (Learning using scenarios?). Bedrijfskunde 1995; (2): 45–53.

Porter, 1985

Rotmans, 1998

1994

2nd Visions European workshop. 23 November, 2000.

VISIONS symposium. 17 May, 2001. Maastricht, the Netherlands.

Dobbinga, 2002, A crunch of gears: scenarios and organisational cultures, Scenario & Strategy Planning, 3, 24

Moyer, 1996, Scenario planning at British Airways—A case study, Long Range Planning, 29, 172, 10.1016/0024-6301(96)00005-2

Hyde-Price, 1991

Global Business Network, Port of Rotterdam scenario workshop report. 1996.

World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Biotech scenarios. Conches-Geneva, 2000.

P. De Ruijter, Interview. 19 April, 2002.

P.J. Jongman, Interview. 10 June, 2002.