Một nền kinh tế Wicksell–Keynes nhân tạo tích hợp chu kỳ kinh doanh ngắn hạn và xu hướng tích lũy dài hạn

Ichiro Takahashi1,2, Isamu Okada2
1Chuo University, Hachioji, Japan
2Soka University, Hachioji, Japan

Tóm tắt

Tóm tắtCác nhà kinh tế học đã nghiên cứu cách mà tính cứng giá – lương ảnh hưởng đến sự ổn định kinh tế vĩ mô. Một quan điểm được chấp nhận rộng rãi cho rằng tăng cường tính cứng sẽ làm mất ổn định nền kinh tế bằng cách yêu cầu điều chỉnh khối lượng lớn hơn. Ngược lại, quan điểm Old Keynesian xem tính cứng danh nghĩa như một yếu tố ổn định, vì nó giảm sự biến động trong thu nhập và do đó là tổng cầu. Để xem xét liệu tính cứng giá – lương có ổn định hay không, chúng tôi xây dựng một mô hình kinh tế vĩ mô dựa trên tác nhân Wicksell–Keynes, hoàn toàn khép kín và hoàn toàn không chịu bất kỳ cú sốc bên ngoài nào, bao gồm cả can thiệp chính sách. Trong mô hình này, các công ty đặt giá và lương sẽ đưa ra quyết định về việc làm cũng như đầu tư dưới sự ràng buộc của tổng cầu, trong khi một khu vực ngân hàng dự trữ phân đoạn sẽ đặt lãi suất và cung cấp cho các công ty nguồn vốn đầu tư. Do việc đầu tư có thời gian thụ thai, nó dễ dẫn đến sản xuất dư thừa, do đó gây ra tình trạng thị trường người bánngười mua luân phiên. Trong mô phỏng cơ bản, một nền kinh tế ổn định xuất hiện với các chu kỳ kinh doanh ngắn hạn và sự biến động dài hạn. Một đặc điểm độc đáo của nền kinh tế này là khả năng phục hồi đáng chú ý của nó: Khi bị ảnh hưởng bởi tình trạng giảm phát kéo dài, nó thường quản lý để đảo ngược vòng xoáy giảm phát và quay trở lại đà tăng trưởng, cuối cùng đạt được mức việc làm toàn phần hoặc gần đạt được mức này. Những thí nghiệm ảo chứng minh rằng cả giá và lương đều phải cứng vừa phải để đảm bảo sự ổn định dài hạn. Cơ chế ổn định chính là một nền kinh tế đủ cầu lặp lại, trong đó các công ty được phép tăng việc làm đồng thời với việc cắt giảm lương thực tế.

Từ khóa


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