An agent-based simulation of extirpation of Ceratitis capitata applied to invasions in California

Arrignon F, Deconchat M, Sarthou J-P et al (2007) Modelling the overwintering strategy of a beneficial insect in a heterogeneous landscape using a multi-agent system. Ecol Model 205:423–436. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.03.006

Babin-Fenske J, Anand M (2011) Agent-based simulation of effects of stress on forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hübner) population dynamics. Ecol Model 222:2561–2569. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.04.014

Back EA, Pemberton CE (1918) The Mediterranean fruit fly in Hawaii. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Washington DC

Bedau MA (1997) Weak emergence. Nous 31:375–399

Blower SM, Dowlatabadi H (1994) Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: an HIV model, as an example. Int Stat Rev 2:229–243

Bonabeau E (2002) Agent-based modeling: methods and techniques for simulating human systems. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99:7280–7287. doi: 10.1073/pnas.082080899

Bonizzoni M, Zheng L, Guglielmino C et al (2001) Microsatellite analysis of medfly bioinfestations in California. Mol Ecol 10:2515–2524

Campbell GS, Norman JM (1997) An introduction to environmental biophysics, 2nd edn. Springer, New York

Campbell A, Frazer BD, Gilbert N et al (1974) Temperature requirements of some aphids and their parasites. J Appl Ecol 11:431–438. doi: 10.2307/2402197

Carey JR (1982) Demography and population dynamics of the Mediterranean fruit fly. Ecol Model 16:125–150. doi: 10.1016/0304-3800(82)90005-9

Carey JR (1991) Establishment of the Mediterranean fruit fly in California. Science 253:1369

Carey JR (1992) The Mediterranean fruit fly in California: taking stock. Calif Agric 46:12–17

Carey JR (1996) The future of the Mediterranean fruit fly Ceratitis capitata invasion of California: a predictive framework. Biol Conserv 78:35–50. doi: 10.1016/0006-3207(96)00016-X

Carey JR (2011) Biodemography of the Mediterranean fruit fly: aging, longevity and adaptation in the wild. Exp Gerontol 46:404–411. doi: 10.1016/j.exger.2010.09.009

CDFA (2012) California Dept of Food and Agriculture, Medfly Quarantine Information. Sacramento CA

Christenson L, Foote RH (1960) Biology of fruit flies. Annu Rev Entomol 5:171–192

Cormont A, Jochem R, Malinowska A et al (2012) Can phenological shifts compensate for adverse effects of climate change on butterfly metapopulation viability? Ecol Model 227:72

Crespo-Pérez V, Rebaudo F, Silvain JF, Dangles O (2011) Modeling invasive species spread in complex landscapes: the case of potato moth in Ecuador. Landsc Ecol 26(10):1447–1461

Cunningham RT, Couey HM (1986) Mediterranean fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae): Distance/response curves to trimedlure to measure trapping efficiency. Environ Entomol 15:71–74

Davies N, Villablanca FX, Roderick GK (1999) Bioinvasions of the Medfly Ceratitis capitata: source estimation using DNA sequences at multiple intron loci. Genetics 153:351–360

de Almeida SJ, Martins Ferreira RP, Eiras ÁE et al (2010) Multi-agent modeling and simulation of an Aedes aegypti mosquito population. Environ Model Softw 25:1490–1507. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.04.021

DeAngelis D, Rose K, Huston M (1994) Individual-oriented approaches to modeling ecological populations and communities. In: Levin S (ed) Frontiers in mathematical biology. Springer, New York, pp 390–410

Diamantidis AD, Papadopoulos NT, Nakas CT et al (2009) Life history evolution in a globally invading tephritid: patterns of survival and reproduction in Medflies from six world regions. Biol J Linn Soc 97:106–117. doi: 10.1111/j.1095-8312.2009.01178.x

Dowell R, Siddiqui I, Meyer F et al (1999) Early results suggest sterile flies may protect S. California from Medfly. Calif Agric 53:28–32

Dowell RV, Siddiqu I, Meyer F et al (2000) Mediterranean fruit fly preventative release programme in Southern California. Area-wide control of fruit flies and other insect pests. In: Joint proceedings of the international conference on area-wide control of insect pests, 28 May to 2 June 1998 and the Fifth International Symposium on Fruit Flies of Economic Importance, Penang, Malaysia, 1–5 June 1998, pp 369–375

Duyck P f, Quilici S (2002) Survival and development of different life stages of three Ceratitis spp. (Diptera: Tephritidae) reared at five constant temperatures. Bull Entomol Res 92:461–469. doi: 10.1079/BER2002188

El Keroumi A, Naamani K, Dahbi A et al (2010) Effect of ant predation and abiotic factors on the mortality of Medfly larvae, Ceratitis capitata, in the Argan forest of Western Morocco. Biocontrol Sci Technol 20:751–762. doi: 10.1080/09583151003734651

Fletcher BS (1989) Temperature-development rate relationships of the immature stages and adults of tephritid fruit flies. In: Robinson AS, Hooper G (eds) Fruit flies: their biology, natural enemies, and control. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 273–289

Fry J, Taylor CE, Devgan U (1989) An expert system for mosquito control in Orange County California. Bull Soc Vector Ecol 14:237–246

Gasperi G, Bonizzoni M, Gomulski L et al (2002) Genetic differentiation, gene flow and the origin of infestations of the Medfly, Ceratitis capitata. Genetica 116:125–135

Gilbert A, Bingham R, Nicolas M, Clark R (2010) Insect trapping guide, 12th edn. CDFA, Sacramento

Grimm V (1999) Ten years of individual-based modelling in ecology: what have we learned and what could we learn in the future? Ecol Model 115:129–148

Grimm V, Berger U, Bastiansen F et al (2006) A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models. Ecol Model 198:115–126. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.04.023

Grimm V, Berger U, DeAngelis DL et al (2010) The ODD protocol: a review and first update. Ecol Model 221:2760–2768

Grout TG, Stoltz KC (2007) Developmental rates at constant temperatures of three economically important Ceratitis spp. (Diptera: Tephritidae) from Southern Africa. Environ Entomol 36:1310–1317. doi: 10.1603/0046-225X

Grout TG, Daneel JH, Ware AB, Beck RR (2011) A comparison of monitoring systems used for Ceratitis species (Diptera: Tephritidae) in South Africa. Crop Prot 30:617–622. doi: 10.1016/j.cropro.2011.01.005

Gutierrez AP, Ponti L (2011) Assessing the invasive potential of the Mediterranean fruit fly in California and Italy. Biol Invasions 13:2661–2676. doi: 10.1007/s10530-011-9937-6

Hales D, Rouchier J, Edmonds B (2003) Model-to-model analysis. J Artif Soc Soc Simul 6:5

Harris EJ, Carey JR, Krainacker DA, Lee CYL (1991) Life history of Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae) reared from mock orange in Hawaii. Environ Entomol 20:1048–1052

Haymer DS, He M, McInnis DO (1997) Genetic marker analysis of spatial and temporal relationships among existing populations and new infestations of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata). Heredity 79:302–309

Holcombe M, Adra S, Bicak M et al (2012) Modelling complex biological systems using an agent-based approach. Integr Biol 4:53. doi: 10.1039/c1ib00042j

Huston M, DeAngelis D, Post W (1988) New computer models unify ecological theory. BioScience 38:682–691

Jackson DE, Holcombe M, Ratnieks FL (2004) Trail geometry gives polarity to ant foraging networks. Nature 432:907–909

Kaspi R, Mossinson S, Drezner T et al (2002) Effects of larval diet on development rates and reproductive maturation of male and female Mediterranean fruit flies. Physiol Entomol 27:29–38. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-3032.2001.00264.x

Katsoyannos B, Heath R, Papadopoulos N et al (1999) Field evaluation of Mediterranean fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) female selective attractants for use in monitoring programs. J Econ Entomol 92:583–589

Kendall MG (1942) Partial rank correlation. Biometrika 32:277–283

Knipling EF (1979) The basic principles of insect population suppression and management. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Washington DC

Lance DR, Gates DB (1994) Sensitivity of detection trapping systems for Mediterranean fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Southern California. J Econ Entomol 87:1377–1383

Leslie PH (1945) On the use of matrices in certain population mathematics. Biometrika 33:183–212

Levins R (1966) The strategy of model building in population biology. Am Sci 54:421–431

Lewis E (1942) On the generation and growth of a population. Sankhya 6:93–96

Liquido NJ, Cunningham RT, Nakagawa S (1990) Host plants of Mediterranean fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) on the island of Hawaii (1949–1985 survey). J Econ Entomol 83:1863–1878

Macal CM, North MJ (2010) Tutorial on agent-based modelling and simulation. J Simul 4:151–162

Messenger PS (1959) Bioclimatic Studies with Insects. Annu Rev Entomol 4:183–206. doi: 10.1146/annurev.en.04.010159.001151

Messenger PS, Flitters NE (1958) Effect of constant temperature environments on the egg stage of three species of Hawaiian fruit flies. Ann Entomol Soc Am 51:109–119

Midgarden D, Ovalle O, Epsky ND et al (2004) Capture of Mediterranean fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) in dry traps baited with a food-based attractant and Jackson traps baited with trimedlure during sterile male release in Guatemala. J Econ Entomol 97:2137–2143

Papachristos DP, Papadopoulos NT, Nanos GD (2008) Survival and development of immature stages of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) in citrus fruit. J Econ Entomol 101:866–872. doi: 10.1603/0022-0493

Papadopoulos NT, Katsoyannos BI, Carey JR (2002) Demographic parameters of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) reared in apples. Ann Entomol Soc Am 95:564–569. doi: 10.1603/0013-8746

Parry HR, Evans AJ, Morgan D (2006) Aphid population response to agricultural landscape change: a spatially explicit, individual-based model. Ecol Model 199:451–463. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.01.006

Perez L, Dragicevic S (2012) Landscape-level simulation of forest insect disturbance: coupling swarm intelligent agents with GIS-based cellular automata model. Ecol Model 231:53–64. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.01.020

Pratt SC, Sumpter DJT, Mallon EB, Franks NR (2005) An agent-based model of collective nest choice by the ant Temnothorax albipennis. Anim Behav 70:1023–1036. doi: 10.1016/j.anbehav.2005.01.022

Radchuk V, Johst K, Groeneveld J et al (2013) Behind the scenes of population viability modeling: predicting butterfly metapopulation dynamics under climate change. Ecol Model 259:62–73

Railsback SF, Grimm V (2012) Agent-based and individual-based modeling: a practical introduction. Princeton University Press, Princeton

Rivnay E (1950) The Mediterranean fruit fly in Israel. Bull Entomol Res 41:321–341

Rossler Y (1975) Reproductive differences between laboratory-reared and field-collected populations of the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata. Ann Entomol Soc Am 68:987–991

Sawyer AJ, Feng Z, Hoy CW et al (1987) Instructional simulation: sterile insect release method with spatial and random effects. Bull Entomol Soc Am 33:182–190

Shoukry A, Hafez M (1979) Studies on the biology of the Mediterranean fruit fly Ceratitis capitata. Entomol Exp Appl 26:33–39. doi: 10.1111/j.1570-7458.1979.tb02894.x

Siebert J, Cooper T (1995) If Medfly infestation triggered a trade ban: embargo on California produce would cause revenue, job loss. Calif Agric 49:7–12

Simberloff D, Schmitz DC, Brown TC (1997) Strangers in paradise: impact and management of nonindigenous species in Florida. Island Press, Washington DC

Steiner L (1967) Methods of estimating the size of populations of sterile pest Tephritidae in release programs. In: Proceedings of a panel organized by the joint FAO/IAEA Division of Atomic Energy in Food and Agriculture, Vienna. p 63

Steiner L (1969) A method of estimating the size of native populations of Oriental, Melon, and Mediterranean fruit flies to establish the over flooding ratios required for sterile-male releases. J Econ Entomol 62:4–7

Vargas RI, Walsh WA, Jang EB et al (1996) Survival and development of immature stages of four Hawaiian fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) reared at five constant temperatures. Ann Entomol Soc Am 89:64–69

Vargas RI, Walsh WA, Kanehisa D et al (1997) Demography of four Hawaiian fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) reared at five constant temperatures. Ann Entomol Soc Am 90:162–168

Vargas RI, Walsh WA, Kanehisa D et al (2000) Comparative demography of three Hawaiian fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) at alternating temperatures. Ann Entomol Soc Am 93:75–81. doi: 10.1603/0013-8746

Vinatier F, Tixier P, Duyck PF, Lescourret F (2011) Factors and mechanisms explaining spatial heterogeneity: a review of methods for insect populations. Method Ecol Evol 2:11–22