Aggregating disparate estimates of chance
Tài liệu tham khảo
Alpert, 1982, A progress report on the training of probability assessors, 294
Ariely, 2000, The Effects of Averaging Subjective Probability Estimates Between and Within Judges, J. Exper. Psychol.: Appl., 6, 130, 10.1037/1076-898X.6.2.130
Ashton, 1985, Aggregating subjective forecasts: some empirical results, Manage. Sci., 31, 1499, 10.1287/mnsc.31.12.1499
Bahar, 1997, Algebraic decision diagrams and their applications, J. Formal Methods Systems Design, 10, 171, 10.1023/A:1008699807402
Bar-Hillel, 1973, On the subjective probability of compound events, Organ. Behav. Human Performance, 9, 396, 10.1016/0030-5073(73)90061-5
Baron, 2000
Batsell, 2002, Eliminating incoherence from subjective estimates of chance, 353
Berend, 1998, When is Condorcet's jury theorem valid?, Soc. Choice Welfare, 15, 481, 10.1007/s003550050118
Bernardo, 1994
Biazzo, 2000, A generalization of the fundamental theorem of de Finetti for imprecise conditional probability assessments, Int. J. Approx. Reasoning, 24, 251, 10.1016/S0888-613X(00)00038-4
Biazzo, V., Gilio, A., Lukasiewicz, T., Sanfilippo, G., 2001. Probabilistic logic under coherence: Complexity and algorithms. In: 2nd International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and Their Applications. Ithaca, NY
Bonini, 2004
Brier, 1950, Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability, Monthly Weather Rev., 78, 1, 10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2
Camerer, 1981, General conditions for the success of bootstrapping models, Organ. Behav. Human Performance, 27, 411, 10.1016/0030-5073(81)90031-3
Castillo, 1997
Chvátal, 1983
Clemen, 1989, Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography, Int. J. Forecasting, 5, 559, 10.1016/0169-2070(89)90012-5
Clemen, 1993, Aggregating point estimates: A flexible modeling approach, Manage. Sci., 39, 501, 10.1287/mnsc.39.4.501
Clemen, 1999, Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis, Risk Analysis, 19, 187, 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00399.x
Clemen, 1996, Aggregating forecasts: An empirical evaluation of some Bayesian methods
Coletti, 1993, Comparative probability for conditional events: A new look through coherence, Theory Dec., 35, 237, 10.1007/BF01075200
Cooke, 1991
Cover, 1991
Dawes, 1979, The robust beauty of improper linear models, Amer. Psychol., 34, 571, 10.1037/0003-066X.34.7.571
Dawes, 1974, Linear models in decision making, Psychol. Bull., 81, 97, 10.1037/h0037613
de Finetti, 1974
Deines, J., Osherson, D., Thompson, J., Tsavachidis, S., Vardi, M.Y., 2003. Removing incoherence from subjective estimates of chance. Technical report. Rice University. Available at http://www.princeton.edu/~osherson/Papers/cohere.pdf
Dietrich, F., List, C., April 2004. Strategy-proof judgment aggregation. Manuscript
Druzdzel, 1995, Elicitation of probabilities for belief networks: Combining qualitative and quantitative information, 112
Fagin, 1990, A Logic for Reasoning about Probabilities, Info. Comput., 87, 78, 10.1016/0890-5401(90)90060-U
Ferrell, 1985, Combining individual judgments, 111
Fletcher, 1986
Fong, 1986, The effects of statistical training about everyday problems, Cogn. Psychol., 18, 253, 10.1016/0010-0285(86)90001-0
Gärdenfors, 1988
Genest, 1986, Combining probability distributions: A critique and an annotated bibliography, Statist. Sci., 1, 114, 10.1214/ss/1177013825
Georgakopoulos, 1988, Probabilistic satisfiability, J. Complexity, 4, 1, 10.1016/0885-064X(88)90006-4
2002
Grofman, 1983, Thirteen theorems in search of the truth, Theory Dec., 15, 261, 10.1007/BF00125672
Gustason, 1994
Hailperin, 1996
Halpern, 2003
Hansson, 1999
Hastie, 2001
Henrion, M., 1987. Practical issues in constructing a Bayes' belief network. Third Workshop in Uncertainty and Artificial Intelligence, pp. 132–139
Hogarth, 1978, A note on aggregating opinions, Organ. Behav. Human Performance, 21, 42
Holtzman, 1986, Exact reasoning about uncertainty: On the design of expert systems for decision support, 339
Homer, 2001
Howard, 1989, Knowledge maps, Manage. Sci., 35, 903, 10.1287/mnsc.35.8.903
Jaumard, 1991, Column generation methods for probabilistic logic, ORSA J. Comput., 3, 135, 10.1287/ijoc.3.2.135
Jeffrey, 1983
Johnson, 1998
Johnson, 2001, Averaging probability judgments: Monte Carlo analyses of asymptotic diagnostic value, J. Behav. Dec. Making, 14, 123, 10.1002/bdm.369
Joyce, 1998, A Nonpragmatic Vindication of Probabilism, Philosophy Sci., 65, 575, 10.1086/392661
2000
Kelly, 1978
Kirkpatrick, 1983, Optimization by simulated annealing, Science, 220, 671, 10.1126/science.220.4598.671
Klayman, 1993, Debias the environment instead of the judge: An alternative approach to reducing error in diagnostic (and other) judgment, Cognition, 49, 97, 10.1016/0010-0277(93)90037-V
Kornhauser, 1986, Unpacking the court, Yale Law J., 96, 82, 10.2307/796436
Lad, 1996
Ladha, 1995, Information polling through majority rule voting: Condorcet's jury theorem with correlated votes, J. Econ. Behav. Organ., 26, 353, 10.1016/0167-2681(94)00068-P
Lindley, 1979, On the reconciliation of probability assessments, J. Royal Statist. Soc. A, 142, 146, 10.2307/2345078
List, 2003, A possibility theorem on aggregation over multiple interconnected propositions, Math. Soc. Sci., 45, 1, 10.1016/S0165-4896(02)00089-6
List, 2005, The probability of inconsistencies in complex collective decisions, Soc. Choice Welfare, 24, 3, 10.1007/s00355-003-0253-7
List, 2002, Aggregating sets of judgments: An impossibility result, Econ. Philosophy, 18, 10.1017/S0266267102001098
Lord, 1979, Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence, J. Personality Soc. Psychol., 37, 2098, 10.1037/0022-3514.37.11.2098
Luenberger, 1984
Michalewicz, 1992
Mitchell, 1996
Morgan, 1990
Morris, 1974, Decision analysis expert use, Manage. Sci., 20, 1233, 10.1287/mnsc.20.9.1233
Nilsson, 1986, Probabilistic logic, Artificial Intelligence, 28, 71, 10.1016/0004-3702(86)90031-7
Nisbett, 1987, Teaching reasoning, Science, 238, 625, 10.1126/science.3672116
Osherson, 1995, Probability judgment, 35
Parenté, 1987, Delphi inquiry systems, 129
Pennock, D.M., 1999. Aggregating probabilistic beliefs: Market mechanisms and graphical representations. PhD thesis. University of Michigan
Pettit, 2001, Deliberative democracy and the discursive dilemma, Philosophical Issues, 11, 268, 10.1111/j.1758-2237.2001.tb00047.x
Predd, J. B., Kulkarni, S. R., Poor, H. V., Osherson, D., 2006. Scalable algorithms for aggregating disparate forecasts of probability. In: Ninth International Conference on Information Fusion
Press, 1992
Resnik, 1987
Rowe, 1992, Perspectives on expertise in aggregation of judgments, 155
Schaller, 1996, Training in statistical reasoning inhibits formation of erroneous group stereotypes, Personality Soc. Psychol. Bull., 22, 829, 10.1177/0146167296228006
Sides, 2002, On the reality of the conjunction fallacy, Memory and Cognition, 30, 191, 10.3758/BF03195280
Suppes, 1966, Probabilistic inference and the concept of total evidence, 49
Tentori, 2004, The conjunction fallacy: A misunderstanding about conjunction?, Cogn. Sci., 28, 467, 10.1207/s15516709cog2803_8
Vallone, 1985, The hostile media phenomenon: Biased perception and perceptions of media bias in coverage of the Beirut massacre, J. Personality Soc. Psychol., 49, 577, 10.1037/0022-3514.49.3.577
van der Gaag, 1999, How to elicit many probabilities, 647
van Laarhoven, P., 1988. Theoretical and computational aspects of simulated annealing. Center for Mathematics and Computer Science, Amsterdam
von Winterfeldt, 1986
Vose, 1999
Wagner, 1984, Aggregating subjective probabilities: Some limitative theorems, Notre Dame J. Formal Logic, 25, 10.1305/ndjfl/1093870630
Walley, 1991
Walley, 1996, Measures of uncertainty in expert systems, Artificial Intelligence, 83, 1, 10.1016/0004-3702(95)00009-7
Wallsten, 1997, Evaluating and combining subjective probability estimates, J. Behav. Dec. Making, 10, 243, 10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(199709)10:3<243::AID-BDM268>3.0.CO;2-M
Winkler, 1967, The assessment of prior distributions in Bayesian analysis, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 62, 776, 10.2307/2283671
Winkler, 1971, Probabilistic prediction: Some experimental results, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 66, 675, 10.2307/2284212
Wright, 1987, The psychology of forecasting, 83
Yates, 1990