Adaptive market efficiency of agricultural commodity futures contracts

Contaduria y Administracion - Tập 60 Số 2 - Trang 389-401 - 2015
Semei Coronado1, Pedro Luis Celso Arellano1, Omar Rojas2
1Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos y Departamento de Sistemas de Información, Universidad de Guadalajara, México
2Escuela de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad Panamericana, México

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Adrangi, 2003, Non-linear dynamics in futures prices: evidence from the coffee, sugar and cocoa exchange, Applied Financial Economics, 13, 245, 10.1080/09603100110115660

Ahti, 2009

Al-Khazali, 2007, A new variance ratio test of random walk in emerging markets: a revisit, Financial Review, 42, 303, 10.1111/j.1540-6288.2007.00173.x

Alvarez-Ramirez, 2012, Is the US stock market becoming weakly efficient over time?, Evidence from 80-year-long data. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 391, 5643

Aradhyula, 1988, GARCH time-series models: an application to retail livestock prices, Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, 13, 365

Benavides, 2004, Price volatility forecasts for agricultural commodities: an application of historical volatility models, option implieds and composite approaches for futures prices of corn and wheat, Revista de Administración, Finanzas y Economía, 3, 40

Blank, 1991, “Chaos” in futures markets?. A nonlinear dynamical analysis, Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 711, 10.1002/fut.3990110606

Bonilla, 2008, Nonlinear behaviour of emerging market bonds spreads: the Latin American case, Applied Economics, 40, 2679, 10.1080/00036840600970245

Broock, 1996, A test for independence based on the correlation dimension, Econometric Reviews, 15, 197, 10.1080/07474939608800353

Campbell, 1997

Charles, 2012, Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates, Journal of International Money and Finance, 31, 1607, 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.03.003

Chow, 1993, A simple multiple variance ratio test, Journal of Econometrics, 58, 385, 10.1016/0304-4076(93)90051-6

Cont, 2001, Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues, Quantitative Finance, 1, 223, 10.1080/713665670

Coronado, 2011, Identificación de episodios de dependencia no lineal en el peso mexicano, Cuadernos de Economía, 30, 91

Coronado-Ramírez, 2011, Identificación de episodios de dependencia no lineal en el peso mexicano, Cuadernos de Economía, 30, 91

Coronado-Ramírez, 2014, Inefficiency in the international coffee market: The case of Colombian arabica, African Journal of Agricultural Research, 9, 556, 10.5897/AJAR11.2228

Dickey, 1979, Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427, 10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531

Engle, 1982, Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 50, 987, 10.2307/1912773

Fama, 1970, Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work, The Journal of Finance, 5, 383, 10.2307/2325486

Granger, C.W.J. (2001). Essays in Econometrics. Collected Papers of Clive W. J. Granger (32: 457–471). Cambridge University Press.

Granger, 1978

Hinich, 1996, Testing for dependence in the input to a linear time series model, Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, 6, 205, 10.1080/10485259608832672

Hinich, 1985, Evidence of nonlinearity in daily stock returns, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 3, 69, 10.1080/07350015.1985.10509428

Hinich, 2007, Episodic nonlinear event detection in the Canadian exchange rate, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 102, 68, 10.1198/016214506000001004

Hinich, 1995

Hinich, 2005, Detecting epochs of transient dependence in white noise, 61

Hiremath, 2014, Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India, SpringerPlus, 3, 1, 10.1186/2193-1801-3-428

Hong, 2005, Generalized spectral tests for conditional mean models in time series with conditional heteroscedasticity of unknown form, The Review of Economic Studies, 72, 499, 10.1111/j.1467-937X.2005.00341.x

Hsieh, 1991, Chaos and nonlinear dynamics: Application to financial markets, Journal of Finance, 46, 1839, 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb04646.x

Im, 2014, More powerful unit root tests with non-normal errors., 315

Ito, 2009, Measuring the degree of time varying market inefficiency, Economics Letters, 103, 62, 10.1016/j.econlet.2009.01.028

Jarque, 1987, A test for normality of observations and regression residuals, Statistical Review /Revue Internationale de Statistique, 53, 163

Karali, 2009, What explains high commodity price volatility?., Estimating a unified model of common and commodity-specific, high-and low-frequency factors. 2009 Annual Meeting Agricultural and Applied Economics. July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Kim, 2011, Stock return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from century-long US data, Journal of Empirical Finance, 8, 868, 10.1016/j.jempfin.2011.08.002

Lim, 2008, Nonlinear serial dependence and the weak-form efficiency of Asian emerging stock markets, Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions and Money, 18, 527, 10.1016/j.intfin.2007.08.001

Ljung, 1978, On a measure of lack of fit in time series models, Biometrika, 65, 297, 10.1093/biomet/65.2.297

Lo, 2004, The adaptive markets hypothesis, The Journal of Portfolio Management, 30, 15, 10.3905/jpm.2004.442611

Lo, 2005, Reconciling efficient markets with behavioral finance: the adaptive markets hypothesis, Journal of Investment Consulting, 7, 21

Lo, 1988, Stock market prices do not follow random walks: Evidence from a simple specification test, Review of Financial Studies, 1, 41, 10.1093/rfs/1.1.41

McLeod, 1983, Diagnostic checking ARMA time series models using squared-residual autocorrelations, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 4, 269, 10.1111/j.1467-9892.1983.tb00373.x

Milas, 2002, Smooth transition vector error correction models for the spot prices of coffee, Applied Economics Letters, 9, 925, 10.1080/13504850210138513

Neely, 2009, The adaptive markets hypothesis: evidence from the foreign exchange market, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 44, 467, 10.1017/S0022109009090103

Noda, A. (2012). A test of the adaptive market hypothesis using non-Bayesian time-varying AR model in Japan. Preprint arXiv, 1207.1842.

Panagiotidis, 2007, Nonlinearity in the Canadian and US labor markets: Univariate and multivariate evidence from a battery of tests, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 11, 613, 10.1017/S1365100507060245

Patterson, 2000

Romero-Meza, 2007, Nonlinear event detection in the Chilean stock market, Applied Economics Letters, 14, 987, 10.1080/13504850600706024

Shiller, 1985, Testing the random walk hypothesis: Power versus frequency of observation, Economics Letters, 18, 381, 10.1016/0165-1765(85)90058-8

Tansuchat, 2009, Modelling long memory volatility in agricultural commodity futures returns., CARF-F-183 Series, Center for Advanced Research in Finance. Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo

Tejeda, H.A. & Goodwin, B.K. (2009). Price volatility, nonlinearity, and asymmetric adjustments in corn, soybean, and cattle markets: Implications of ethanol-driven (market) shocks. In NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri.

Tsay, 1986, Nonlinearity tests for time series, Biometrika, 73, 461, 10.1093/biomet/73.2.461

Urquhart, 2013, Efficient or adaptive markets? Evidence from major stock markets using very long run historic data, International Review of Financial Analysis, 28, 130, 10.1016/j.irfa.2013.03.005

Velásquez, 2007, Modelado del precio del café colombiano en la bolsa de nueva york usando redes neuronales artificiales, Rev. Fac. Nal. Agr. Medellín, 60, 4129

Yang, 1993, Nonlinear dynamics of daily futures prices: conditional heteroskedasticity or chaos?, Journal of Futures Markets, 13, 175, 10.1002/fut.3990130205