A spatio-temporal model of housing prices based on individual sales transactions over time

Journal of Geographical Systems - 2009
Tony E. Smith1, Peggy Wu2
1Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA
2Department of Policy and Information Services, The Reinvestment Fund, Philadelphia, USA

Tóm tắt

A spatio-temporal model of housing price trends is developed that focuses on individual housing sales over time. The model allows for both the spatio-temporal lag effects of previous sales in the vicinity of each housing sale, and for general autocorrelation effects over time. A key feature of this model is the recognition of the unequal spacing between individual housing sales over time. Hence the residuals are modeled as a first-order autoregressive process with unequally spaced events. The maximum-likelihood estimation of this model is developed in detail, and tested in terms of simulations based on selected data. In addition, the model is applied to a small data set in the Philadelphia area.

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Journal of Geographical Systems

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