A skillful method for precipitation prediction over eastern China

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters - Tập 15 - Trang 100133 - 2022
Yanyan Huang1,2,3, Huijun Wang1,2,3,4, Peiyi Zhang1
1Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
2Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China
3Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
4Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Tài liệu tham khảo

Dai, 2021, An effective downscaling model for operational prediction of summer precipitation over China, Atmos. Res., 257, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105621 Ding, 2008, Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Part I: Observed evidences, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1139, 10.1002/joc.1615 Ding, 2009, Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon Part II: Possible causes, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 1926, 10.1002/joc.1759 Dong, 1998, Modeling the Asian summer monsoon rainfall and Eurasian winter/spring snow mass, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 124, 2567, 10.1002/qj.49712455203 Fan, 2009, Predicting winter surface air temperature in north- east China, Atmos. Ocean. Sci. Lett., 2, 14, 10.1080/16742834.2009.11446770 Fan, 2010, A prediction model for Atlantic named storm frequency using a year-by-year increment approach, Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1842, 10.1175/2010WAF2222406.1 Fan, 2012, Improving the prediction of the East Asian summer monsoon: New approaches. Wea, Forecasting, 27, 1017, 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00092.1 Fan, 2009, A new approach to forecasting typhoon frequency over the western North Pacific, Wea. Forecasting, 24, 974, 10.1175/2009WAF2222194.1 Fan, 2008, A physically-based statistical forecast model for the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley summer rainfall, Chinese Science Bulletin, 53, 602, 10.1007/s11434-008-0083-1 Gao, 2020, Weakening Influence of Spring Soil Moisture over the Indo-China Peninsula on the Following Summer Mei-Yu Front and Precipitation Extremes over the Yangtze River Basin, J. Clim., 33, 10055, 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0117.1 Hersbach, 2020, The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999, 10.1002/qj.3803 Hu, 1997, Interdecadal variability of summer climate over East Asia and its association with 500 hPa height and global sea surface temperature, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 19403, 10.1029/97JD01052 Huang, 2003, Studies on the relationship between the severe climatic disasters in China and East Asia climate system, Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 770 Huang, 2014, Improving the Prediction of the Summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation Using the Interannual Increment Approach, J. Clim., 27, 8126, 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00209.1 Huang, 2015, The western Pacific subtropical high after the 1970s: westward or eastward shift?, Clim. Dyn., 44, 2035, 10.1007/s00382-014-2194-5 Jiang, 2013, Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2, J. Clim., 26, 3708, 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00437.1 Kim, 2007, Impact of Soil Moisture Anomalies on Summer Rainfall over East Asia: A Regional Climate Model Study, J. Clim., 20, 5732, 10.1175/2006JCLI1358.1 Lau, 1984, The monsoon over East Asia and its global association — a survey, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 65, 116, 10.1175/1520-0477(1984)065<0114:TMOEAA>2.0.CO;2 Li, 2012, Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES, Clim. Dyn., 39, 329, 10.1007/s00382-011-1274-z Li, 2018, Can Barents Sea Ice Decline in Spring Enhance Summer Hot Drought Events over Northeastern China?, J. Clim., 31, 4705, 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0429.1 Liu, 2015, A hybrid statistical downscaling model for prediction of winter precipitation in China, International Journal of Climatology, 35, 1309, 10.1002/joc.4058 Lu, 2020, A Bridging Role of Winter Snow over Northern China and Southern Mongolia in Linking the East Asian Winter and Summer Monsoons, J. Clim., 33, 9849, 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0298.1 Ma, 2021, New statistical prediction scheme for monthly precipitation variability in the rainy season over northeastern China, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7154 Rayner, 2003, Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, 10.1029/2002JD002670 Smith, 2008, Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land–ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006), J. Clim., 21, 2283, 10.1175/2007JCLI2100.1 Tao, 1963 Tian, 2019, Climate prediction of summer extreme precipitation frequency in the Yangtze River valley based on sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean and ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea, International Journal of Climatology, 40, 4117, 10.1002/joc.6446 Wang, 2000, Pacific–East Asian Teleconnection: How Does ENSO Affect East Asian Climate?, J. Clim., 13, 1517, 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1517:PEATHD>2.0.CO;2 Wang, 2001, The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970’s, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 18, 376, 10.1007/BF02919316 Wang, 2021, Predicting climate anomalies: A real challenge, Atmos. Ocean. Sci. Let. Wang, 2012, p120 Wang, 2001, A review on seasonal prediction, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 18, 198 Wei, 2021, Improving China’s summer precipitation prediction in 2020 by observational constrained bias correction, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 145, 1317, 10.1007/s00704-021-03693-y Wu, 2009, On the association between spring Arctic sea ice concentration and Chinese summer rainfall, Geophys. Res. Let., 36, L09501, 10.1029/2009GL037299 Wu, 2013, A gridded daily observation dataset over China region and comparison with the other datasets, Chin. J. Geophys., 56, 1102 Ye, 2001, Lagged teleconnections between snow depth in northern Eurasia, rainfall in Southeast Asia and sea-surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean, Int. J. Climatol., 21, 1607, 10.1002/joc.695 Yu, 2014, Improvement of medium-range forecasts using the analogue-dynamical method, Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 1570, 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00250.1 Zhao, 2004, The Sea Ice Extent Anomaly in the North Pacific and Its Impact on the East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall, J. Clim., 17, 3434, 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3434:TSIEAI>2.0.CO;2 Zuo, 2007, The spring soil moisture and the summer rainfall in eastern China, Chin. Sci. Bull., 52, 3310, 10.1007/s11434-007-0442-3 Zhu, 2011, Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation, Clim. Dyn., 36, 1463, 10.1007/s00382-010-0852-9 Zhu, 2015, Contribution of the phase transition of Pacific Decadal Oscillation to the late 1990s' shift in East China summer rainfall, J. Geophys. Res., 120, 8817, 10.1002/2015JD023545