A simulation approach to recreation planning (A case of changing quality)

Conventional demand based approaches to recreational economics are reviewed and found unsuitable for analyzing the effects of changes of the quality of recreation. An alternative approach using a simulation model is proposed, which allows the use of both quantitative data and subjective input on the qualitative effects. The critical economic variables are found to be fishing recreation visitor days and investment in recreational facilities at the Salton Sea, California. The model results are projected for 20 years and key parameters and assumptions are identified by parametric analysis. These parameters were then subjected to critical interaction by a group of specialists in the area, during a workshop session. Results of the final model are compared to a previous economic study of the region and found to be more pessimistic about the benefits of quality control. Verification of the model is performed by tests of deviation of the predictions of visitor days by the model from the actual visitor days recorded over eight years.