A review of research on risk and safety modelling in civil aviation

Ale, 2002, Risk assessment practices in the Netherlands, Safety Science, 40, 105, 10.1016/S0925-7535(01)00044-3

Ale, 2000

Bahr, 1997

Bakker, 1993, Air traffic collision risk modeling

Bakker, 2000, Geometric and probabilistic approaches towards conflict prediction

Barnett, 2000, Free-flight and en route air safety: a first-order analysis, Operations Research, 48, 833, 10.1287/opre.48.6.833.12394

Blom, 2002, Conflict probability and in-crossing probability in air traffic management

Blom, H.A.P., Bakker, G.J., Blanker, P.J.G., Daams, J., Everdij, M.H.C., Klompstra, M.B., 1998. Accident risk assessment for advanced ATM, In: Proceedings of the Second USA/Europe Air Traffic Management R&D Seminar, Orlando.

Blom, H.A.P., Bakker, G.J., Everdij, M.H.C., van der Park, M., 2003a. Collision risk modelling of air traffic. In: Proceedings of the European Control Conference, Cambridge.

Blom, H.A.P., Klompstra, M.B., Bakker, G.J., 2003b. Accident risk assessment of simultaneous converging instrument approaches. National Airspace Laboratory (Report NLR-TP-2003-557), Amsterdam.

Blom, H.A.P., Corker, K.M., Stroeve, S.H., 2005. Study on the integration of human performance and accident risk assessment models: AIR-MIDAS & TOPAZ. In: Proceedings of the Sixth USA/Europe Air Traffic Management R&D Seminar, Baltimore.

Blom, 2006, Safety risk assessment by monte carlo simulation of complex safety critical operations

Boeing Commercial Airplanes, 2006

European Commission, 1999

Everdij, 2006, Structured assessment of bias and uncertainty in Monte Carlo simulated accident risk

Federal Aviation Administration, European Organization for Safety of Air Navigation, 1998

Federal Aviation Administration, European Organization for Safety of Air Navigation, 2005

GAIN, 2003. Guide to methods & tools for safety analysis in air traffic management. Global Aviation Information Network. 〈www.gainweb.org〉.

Geisinger, 1985, Airspace conflict equations, Transportation Science, 19, 139, 10.1287/trsc.19.2.139

Hale, 2002, Risk contours and risk management criteria for safety at major airports, with particular reference to the case of Schiphol, Safety Science, 40, 299, 10.1016/S0925-7535(01)00051-0

Irvine, 2002, A geometrical approach to conflict probability estimation, Air Traffic Control Quarterly, 10, 85, 10.2514/atcq.10.2.85

Janic, 2000, An assessment of risk and safety in civil aviation, Journal of Air Transport Management, 6, 43, 10.1016/S0969-6997(99)00021-6

Kos, 2000, Probabilistic wake vortex induced accident risk assessment

Kumamoto, 1996

Luxhoj, 2006, Modeling low probability/high consequence events: an aviation safety risk model, 10.1109/RAMS.2006.1677377

Machol, 1975, An aircraft collision model, Management Science, 21, 1089, 10.1287/mnsc.21.10.1089

Machol, 1995, Thirty years of modelling midair collisions, Interfaces, 25, 151, 10.1287/inte.25.5.151

Paielli, 1997, Conflict probability estimation for free flight, Journal of Guidance, Control and Dynamics, 20, 588, 10.2514/2.4081

Paielli, 1999, Conflict probability estimation generalized to non-level flight, Air Traffic Control Quarterly, 7, 195, 10.2514/atcq.7.3.195

Pikaar, A.J., Piers, M.A., Ale, B., 2000. External risk around airports – a model update. National Airspace Laboratory (Report NLR-TP-2000-400), Amsterdam.

Rabouw, R.F., Thompson, K.M., Cooke, R.M., 2001. The aviation risk to groundings with spatial variability. In: Proceedings of ESREL 2001—European Safety and Reliability Conference.

Reich, 1966, Analysis of long range air traffic systems: separation standards—I, II and III, Journal of the Institute of Navigation, 19, 88, 10.1017/S037346330004056X

Roelen, 2003, Causal modelling for integrated safety at airports

Roelen, 2003, Aviation causal model using bayesian belief nets to quantify management influence

Rouvroye, 2002, Comparing safety analysis techniques, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 75, 289, 10.1016/S0951-8320(01)00116-8

Shortle, 2004, Simulating collision probabilities of landing airplanes at non-towered airports, Simulation, 80, 21, 10.1177/0037549704042028

Siddiqee, 1973, A mathematical model for predicting the number of potential conflict situations at intersecting air routes, Transportation Science, 7, 158, 10.1287/trsc.7.2.158

Speijker, L.J.P., Kos, J., Blom, H.A.P., van Baren, G.B., 2000a. Probabilistic wake vortex safety assessment to evaluate separation distances for ATM operations. National Airspace Laboratory (Report NLR-TP-2000-326), Amsterdam.

Speijker, L.J.P., Blom, H.A.P., Bakker, G.J., Karwal, A.K., van Baren, G.B., Klompstra, M.B., Kruijsen, E.A.C., 2000b. Risk analysis of simultaneous missed approaches on Schiphol converging runways 19R and 22. National Airspace Laboratory (Report NLR-TP-2000-644), Amsterdam.

Spouge, 2004

Stachtchenko, 1965, An investigation of aircraft collision risks over the North Atlantic, CORS Journal, 3, 55

Van Baren, G.B., Speijker, L.J.P., de Bruin, A.C., 2002. Wake vortex safety evaluation of single runway approaches under different weather and operational conditions. National Airspace Laboratory (Report NLR-TP-2002-077), Amsterdam.

Vismari, 2005, Evaluation of the impact of new technologies on aeronautical safety: an approach through modelling, simulation and comparison with legacy systems, Journal of the Brazilian Air Transportation Research Society, 1, 19