A new estimate of Lithuanian GDP for 1937: How does interwar Lithuania compare?

Cliometrica - Tập 14 - Trang 227-281 - 2019
Adomas Klimantas1, Aras Zirgulis1
1Department of Economics, ISM University of Economics and Management, Vilnius, Lithuania

Tóm tắt

Utilizing archival data from the Lithuanian Central Bureau of Statistics, we piece together the most complete gross domestic product (GDP) figure during the interwar period for Lithuania in accordance with the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008). Lithuania and the other Baltic states have largely been ignored by economic historians due to the short time spans of their independence in the interwar period (1918–1940), their relatively small sizes, and the scarcity of data—we attempt to fill this gap in the historical record. As a practical application of our new GDP estimate for 1937, we convert our estimate into 1990 Geary–Khamis dollars so that we can test the hypothesis that Lithuanian economic growth under communism was below average when compared to its European neighbors using data from the Maddison Project. We find that the economic growth rate in Lithuania was above average from 1937 to 1973, even when compared to other communist economies. Alternatively, from 1973 to 1990, growth collapsed and was below average. Using a difference-in-difference strategy we also find a significant GDP per capita penalty for communist countries in Europe over the studied time periods.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Allen RC (2003) Farm to factory: a reinterpretation of the Soviet industrial revolution. Princeton University Press, Princeton Andersson FN, Lennard J (2018) Irish GDP between the famine and the first world war: estimates based on a dynamic factor model. Eur Rev Econ His 23(1):50–71. https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/hey003 Anušauskas A, Banionis J, Bauža Č, Brandišauskas V et al (2015) Lithuania in 1940–1991: the history of occupied Lithuania. Genocide and Resistance Research Centre of Lithuania, Vilnius Axenciuc V, Voineagu V (2012) Produsul intern brut al României: 1862–2000: serii statistice seculare şi argumente metodologice. Editura Economică Bank of England (2018) Industrial production index in the United Kingdom. https://www.fredstlouisfedorg/series/IPIUKM. Accessed 4 Mar 2018 Berend IT (2006) An economic history of twentieth-century Europe. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Berzin AA (2008) The truth about soviet whaling. Mar Fish Rev 702:4–59 Bolt J et al (2018) Maddison project database, version 2018. Maddison project working paper 10 Broadberry SN (1994) Technological leadership and productivity leadership in manufacturing since the industrial revolution: implications for the convergence debate. Economic Journal 104:291–302 Broadberry SN (2003) Relative per capita income levels in the United Kingdom and the United States since 1870: reconciling time-series projections and direct-benchmark estimates. J Econ His 63(3):852–863. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050703542012 Broadberry SN, Klein A (2011) When and why did eastern European economies begin to fail? Lessons from a Czechoslovak/UK productivity comparison, 1921–1991. Explor Econ Hist 48(1):37–52 Bubnys A (2017) Damage caused by the Soviet Union in Lithuania—depopulation of 1940–1941 and 1944–1953. Damage caused by the Soviet Union in the Baltic States. Publisher Ltd., E-forma, Riga, pp 22–30 Central Bureau of Statistics (1929) Statistical yearbook of Lithuania (1927–1928). Central Bureau of Statistics, Kaunas Central Bureau of Statistics (1930) Lithuanian agricultural census. Central Bureau of Statistics, Kaunas Central Bureau of Statistics (1931) Statistical yearbook of Lithuania (1929–1930). Central Bureau of Statistics, Kaunas Central Bureau of Statistics (1932) Statistical yearbook of Lithuania (1931). Central Bureau of Statistics, Kaunas Central Bureau of Statistics (1933) Statistical yearbook of Lithuania (1932). Central Bureau of Statistics, Kaunas Central Bureau of Statistics (1934) Statistical yearbook of Lithuania (1933). Central Bureau of Statistics, Kaunas Central Bureau of Statistics (1935) Statistical yearbook of Lithuania (1934). Central Bureau of Statistics, Kaunas Central Bureau of Statistics (1936) Statistical yearbook of Lithuania (1935). Central Bureau of Statistics, Kaunas Central Bureau of Statistics (1937) Statistical yearbook of Lithuania (1936). Central Bureau of Statistics, Kaunas Central Bureau of Statistics (1938a) Statistical bulletin no 7. Central Bureau of Statistics, Kaunas Central Bureau of Statistics (1938b) Statistical yearbook of Lithuania (1937). Central Bureau of Statistics, Kaunas Central Bureau of Statistics (1939) Statistical yearbook of Lithuania (1938). Central Bureau of Statistics, Kaunas Central Bureau of Statistics (1940) Statistical yearbook of Lithuania (1939). Central Bureau of Statistics, Vilnius Cheremukhin A, Golosov M, Guriev S, Tsyvinski A (2013) Was Stalin necessary for Russia’s economic development? NBER working paper 19425 Čiegis R (2012) Makroekonomika. Vilniaus universiteto leidykla, Vilnius Clark C (1938) Internationaler vergleich der volkseinkommen weltwirtschaftliches archiv, pp 51–76 Costanza R, Hart M, Posner S, Talberth J (2009) Beyond GDP: the need for new measures of progress. The parade papers 4 Crafts NFR, Toniolo G (2008) European economic growth, 1950–2005: an overview. Discussion paper 686. Centre for Economic Policy Research, London Dargis L (1974) Ko buvo vertas nepriklausomos Lietuvos ūkis. Naujoji Viltis 7:67–77 Dargis L (1975) Bendrinės tautinės Lietuvos pajamos 1937 metais. Naujoji Viltis 8:48–68 Dargis L (1976) Nepriklausomos Lietuvos 1937 metų tautinės pajamos. Naujoji Viltis 9:25–39 Dargis L (1978) Nepriklausomos Lietuvos 1937 ir 1938 metų tautinės ir bendrinės tautinės pajamos. Naujoji Viltis 11:78–97 Deaton A, Heston A (2010) Understanding PPPs and PPP-based national accounts. Am Econ J Macroecon 2:1–35 Eckstein A (1955) National income and capital formation in Hungary, 1900–1950. Rev Income Wealth 5:152–223 Edquist C, Jacobson S (1988) Flexible automation: the global diffusion of technology in the engineering industry. Blackwell, Oxford Edvinsson R (2013) Swedish GDP 1620–1800: stagnation or growth? Cliometrica 7(1):37–60. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11698-012-0082-y Edvinsson R (2018) Main page. http://www.historicalstatisticsorg. Accessed 1 July 2018 Eichengreen B (1996) Institutions and economic growth: Europe after world war II. In: Crafts N, Toniolo G (eds) Economic growth in Europe since 1945. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 38–72 Eichengreen B (2007) The European economy since 1945: coordinated capitalism and beyond. Princeton University Press, Princeton Eurostat (2017) Consolidated supply, use and input-output tables Eurostat: statistics explained. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Consolidated_supply,_use_and_input-output_tables. Accessed 20 Mar 2018 Frankema E, Smits JP, Woltjer P (2010) Comparing productivity in the Netherlands, France, UK and US, ca 1910: a new PPP benchmark and its implications for changing economic leadership. GGDC working papers 113 Fridbergas Š (1988) Buržuazinės Lietuvos pramonė. Mintis, Vilnius Gregory PR (1976) 1913 Russian national income–some insights into Russian Economic Development. Q J Econ 445–459 Harrison M (2002) Coercion, compliance, and the collapse of the Soviet command economy. Econ His Rev 55(3):397–433 Hjerppe R (1996) Finland’s historical national accounts 1860–1994: calculation methods and statistical tables. Jyväskylän Yliopisto, Jyväskylä Jakniūnaitė D (2015) A small state in the asymmetrical bilateral relations: Lithuania in Lithuanian–Russian relations since 2004. Balt J Polit Sci 4:70–94 Jakštas J (1968) Nepriklausomybės laikai. Lietuvių enciklopedija, vol 15. Lietuvių enciklopedijos leidykla, Boston, pp 338–344 Johnson DG, Brooks KM (1983) Prospects for Soviet agriculture in the 1980s. Indiana University Press, Bloomington Kalnins J, Pinke G (2017) Determining the damage of occupation: hypothetical evaluation of the development path of Latvia, had it not been occupied. Damage caused by the Soviet Union in the Baltic States. Publisher Ltd., E-forma, Riga, pp 59–64 Kirzner IM (1988) The economic calculation debate: lessons for Austrians. Rev Aust Econ 2(1):1–18 Krantz O, Schön L (2007) Swedish historical national accounts 1800–2000. Almqvist and Wiksell International, Lund Lange O (1936) On the economic theory of socialism I. Rev Econ Stud 4(1):53–71. https://doi.org/10.2307/2967660 Lechner M (2011) The estimation of causal effects by difference-in-difference methods. Found Trends Econom 43:165–224. https://doi.org/10.1561/0800000014 Levy DM, Peart SJ (2011) Soviet growth and American textbooks: an endogenous past. J Econ Behav Organ 78(1–2):110–125 McDermott G (2002) Embedded politics: industrial networks and institutional change in postcommunism. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor Meškauskas K (1960) Tarybų Lietuvos industrializavimas. Politinės ir mokslinės literatūros leidykla, Vilnius Ministry of Transport and Communications of the Republic of Lithuania (1938) Susisiekimo ministerijos 1937 metų metraštis. Ministry of Transport and Communications of the Republic of Lithuania, Kaunas Miškų departamentas (1940) Miškų departamento metraštis 1918–1938. Miškų departamentas, Kaunas Norkus Z (2016) Apie pirmuosius nacionalinių pajamų skaičiavimus tarpukario Lietuvoje ir Albino Rimkos juose padarytas klaidas, pagreitinusias demokratijos žlugimą. Lietuvos istorijos studijos 38:42–71 North DC (1993) The new institutional economics and development. Econ Hist 9309002 Nove A (1962) Was Stalin Really Necessary? Encounter 18(4):86–92 OECD (2018) Industrial production. https://www.dataoecdorg/industry/industrial-productionhtm. Accessed 20 Mar 2018 Ofer G (1987) Soviet economic growth: 1928–1985. J Econ Lit 25(4):1767–1833 Official Statistics of Sweden (1961) Consumer prices and index computations 1931–1959. The Swedish Social Welfare Board, Stockholm Paltarokas J (1968) Žemės ūkis. Lietuvių enciklopedija, vol 15. Lietuvių enciklopedijos leidykla, Boston, pp 180–192 Prados de la Escosura L (2017) Spanish economic growth, 1850–2015. Palgrave Mcmillan, Basingstoke Pryor FL, Pryor ZP, Stadnik M, Staller GJ (1971) Czechoslovak aggregate production in the interwar period. Rev Income Wealth 17(1):35–59. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4991.1971.tb00766.x Rimka A (1926a) Tautos pelnas ir metodai jam surasti. Lietuvos ūkis 43:105–110 Rimka A (1926b) Tautos pelnas ir metodai jam surasti. Lietuvos ūkis 44:141–146 Schön L, Krantz O (2015) New Swedish historical national accounts since the 16th century in constant and current prices. Lund Papers in Economic History 140, Lund Staehr K (2013) Austerity in the Baltic states during the global financial crisis. Intereconomics 485:293–302 Stankiewicz WJ, Montias JM (1955) Institutional changes in the postwar economy of Poland. Mid-European Studies Center, Free Europe Committee, New York, p 125 Šulga A, Tininis V (2007) Lietuva politinio atšilimo ir stagnacijos laikotarpiu (1953–1987). In: Visuotinė lietuvių enciklopedija. Mokslo ir enciklopedijų leidybos institutas, Vilnius, vol 12, p 550 Tamulevičius J (1939) Kiek savarankiškų amatininkų turime kaime? Amatininkas 1531:246–248 Tautos ūkis (1937) Akcinių bankų pajamos ir išlaidos 1936 m. Tautos ūkis 44:907 Vaišnys J (1938) Žalienų gerinimo baras jau toli nuvarytas. Ūkininko patarėjas 5:5 Valančius G (1956) The economic development and foreign trade of Lithuania. Lituanus. http://www.lituanus.org/1956/56_1_04Valancius.html. Accessed 10 Feb 2019 Valge J (2003a) Uue majanduse lätteil Eesti sisemajanduse kogutoodang aastatel 1923–1938. Akadeemia 10:2202–2228 Valge J (2003b) Uue majanduse lätteil Eesti sisemajanduse kogutoodang aastatel 1923–1938. Akadeemia 11:2443–2487 Valge J (2003c) Uue majanduse lätteil Eesti sisemajanduse kogutoodang aastatel 1923–1938. Akadeemia 12:2712–2735 Valstybės kontrolė (1938) 1937 metų Valstybės biudžeto vykdymo apyskaita. Ministry of Finance, Kaunas Vaskela G (2007) Darbo užmokestis ir darbininkų bei tarnautojų šeimų gyvenimo lygis Lietuvoje, Latvijoje ir Estijoje 1938–1940 metais. Lituanistica 4:19–35 Vaskela G (2014) Tautiniai aspektai Lietuvos ūkio politikoje 1919–1940 metais. Lietuvos istorijos instituto leidykla, Vilnius Vaskela G (2015) Ekonomika. In: Lietuvos Istorija, vol 10, Nepriklausomybė (1918–1940 m). Lietuvos istorijos instituto leidykla, Vilnius, pp 239–327 Viet VQ (2009) GDP by production approach: a general introduction with emphasis on an integrated economic data collection framework. United Nations Statistics Division, New York von Hayek FA, Pierson NG, von Mises L, Halm G, Barone E (1935). Collectivist economic planning Ward M, Devereux J (2004) Relative UK/US output reconsidered: a reply to professor Broadberry. J Econ His 64:879–891 Žemės ūkio rūmai (1940) Žemės ūkio sąskaitybos rezultatai: 1937/38 ūkio metai. Žemės ūkio rūmai, Kaunas Žiugžda J (1965) Liteuvos TSR istorija, vol 3: nuo 1917 iki 1940 metų. Valstybinė Politinės ir Mokslinės Literatūros Leidykla, Vilnius Zunde P (1963) Soviet industrial policy in Lithuania. Lituanus. http://www.lituanus.org/1963/63_2_02.htm Accessed 10 Feb 2019