A monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period and final size in pairwise epidemic modelling

Journal of Mathematics in Industry - Tập 9 - Trang 1-15 - 2019
Zsolt Vizi1, István Z. Kiss2, Joel C. Miller3, Gergely Röst1,4
1Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Szeged, Hungary
2School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Department of Mathematics, University of Sussex, Falmer, United Kingdom
3Institute for Disease Modeling, Bellevue, USA
4Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Tóm tắt

For a recently derived pairwise model of network epidemics with non-Markovian recovery, we prove that under some mild technical conditions on the distribution of the infectious periods, smaller variance in the recovery time leads to higher reproduction number, and consequently to a larger epidemic outbreak, when the mean infectious period is fixed. We discuss how this result is related to various stochastic orderings of the distributions of infectious periods. The results are illustrated by a number of explicit stochastic simulations, suggesting that their validity goes beyond regular networks.

Tài liệu tham khảo

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