A modified test for small‐study effects in meta‐analyses of controlled trials with binary endpoints

Statistics in Medicine - Tập 25 Số 20 - Trang 3443-3457 - 2006
Roger Harbord1, Matthias Egger2,1, Jonathan A C Sterne1
1MRC Health Services Research Collaboration, Department of Social Medicine, University of Bristol, U.K.
2Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Berne, Switzerland

Tóm tắt

Abstract

Publication bias and related bias in meta‐analysis is often examined by visually checking for asymmetry in funnel plots of treatment effect against its standard error. Formal statistical tests of funnel plot asymmetry have been proposed, but when applied to binary outcome data these can give false‐positive rates that are higher than the nominal level in some situations (large treatment effects, or few events per trial, or all trials of similar sizes). We develop a modified linear regression test for funnel plot asymmetry based on the efficient score and its variance, Fisher's information. The performance of this test is compared to the other proposed tests in simulation analyses based on the characteristics of published controlled trials. When there is little or no between‐trial heterogeneity, this modified test has a false‐positive rate close to the nominal level while maintaining similar power to the original linear regression test (‘Egger’ test). When the degree of between‐trial heterogeneity is large, none of the tests that have been proposed has uniformly good properties. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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