A model-based indicator of the fiscal stance
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Ahmed, 1995, Government budget deficits and trade deficits: are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?, Journal of Monetary Economics, 36, 351, 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01215-X
Barro, 1974, Are government bonds net wealth?, Journal of Political Economy, 82, 1095, 10.1086/260266
Berenguer-Rico, 2011, Regime shifts in stock-flow I(2)-I(1) systems: the case of US fiscal sustainability, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 26, 298, 10.1002/jae.1139
Bergin, 2000, Interest rates, exchange rates and the present value models of the current account, The Economic Journal, 110, 535, 10.1111/1468-0297.00536
Berkowitz, 2000, Recent developments in bootstrapping time series, Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, 19, 1, 10.1080/07474930008800457
Blanchard, O., 1990. Suggestions for a new set of fiscal indicators. OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 79.
Blanchard, 1990, The sustainability of fiscal policy: new answers to an old question, OECD Economic Studies, 15, 7
Blanchard, 2002, An empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of changes in government spending and taxes on output, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 1329, 10.1162/003355302320935043
Bohn, 1995, The sustainability of budget deficits in a stochastic economy, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 27, 257, 10.2307/2077862
Bohn, 1998, The behavior of U.S. public debt and deficits, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113, 949, 10.1162/003355398555793
Buiter, 1993, Excessive deficits: sense and nonsense in the treaty of Maastricht, Economic Policy: A European Forum, 16, 57, 10.2307/1344568
Burnside, 2005
Campbell, 1987, Cointegration and tests of present value models, Journal of Political Economy, 95, 1062, 10.1086/261502
Canzoneri, M., Cumby, R., Diba, B., 2002. Should the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Be Concerned About Fiscal Policy?. In: Rethinking Stabilization Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Canzoneri, M., Cumby, R., Diba, B., 2010. The interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. In: Friedman, B., Woodford, M. (Eds.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, vol. 3, pp. 935–999.
Congressional Budget Office. 2005. Menu of Social Security Options, Washington, 〈www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=6377〉.
Cottarelli, C., Viñals, J., 2009. A Strategy for Renormalizing Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Advanced Economies. IMF Staff Position Note 09/22, Washington: International Monetary Fund.
Cuddington, J.T., 1997. Analysing the Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits in Developing Countries. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 1784.
Davig, 2005, Periodically expanding discounted debt: a threat to fiscal policy sustainability?, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20, 829, 10.1002/jae.807
Edge, R.M., Kiley, M.T., Laforte, J.-P., 2010. A Comparison of Forecast Performance Between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, and a DSGE Model. Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, US Federal Reserve Board.
European Commission. 2006. European Economy, No. 3/2006, Brussels: European Commission.
European Commission. 2007. European Economy, No. 3/2007, Brussels: European Commission.
European Commission. 2009. 2009 Ageing report: Economic and budgetary projections for the EU-27 Member States (2008–2060)—Statistical Annex, European Economy No. 2/2009, Brussels: European Commission.
European Commission. 2010. Public Finances in EMU 2010, European Economy No. 4/2010, Brussels: European Commission.
Fatas, A., Mihov, I., 2000. Fiscal Policy and Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation. Mimeo, INSEAD.
Giannitsarou, 2006, Inflation implications of rising government debt
Hall, G.J., Sargent, T.J., 2010. Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post WWII U.S. Government Debt/GDP Dynamics. NBER Working Paper No. 15702.
Hakkio, 1991, Is the budget deficit too large?, Economic Inquiry, 29, 429, 10.1111/j.1465-7295.1991.tb00837.x
Hamilton, 1986, On the limitations of government borrowing: a framework for empirical testing, American Economic Review, 76, 808
Hendry, 2006, Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction models, Journal of Econometrics, 135, 399, 10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.07.029
Horne, 1991, Criteria of external sustainability, European Economic Review, 35, 1559, 10.1016/0014-2921(91)90018-E
International Monetary Fund. 2009a. The State of Public Finances Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor: November 2009. IMF Staff Position Note 09/25, Washington: International Monetary Fund.
International Monetary Fund. 2009b. World Economic Outlook October 2009, Sustaining the recovery, Washington: International Monetary Fund.
Leeper, 2010, Monetary science fiscal alchemy
Obstfeld, 2000, Perspectives on OECD capital market integration: implications for U.S. current account adjustment, 169
Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K., 2005a. Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Issue No. 1. Brookings Institution, Washington, DC. pp. 67–146.
Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K., 2005b. The Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Position Revisited. NBER Working Paper No. 10869
Polito, 2011, Assessing the fiscal stance in the European Union and the United States, 1970–2011, Economic Policy, 68, 599, 10.1111/j.1468-0327.2011.00270.x
Quintos, 1995, Sustainability of the deficit process with structural shifts, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 409, 10.1080/07350015.1995.10524615
Stock, 2001, Vector autoregressions, The Journal of Economics Perspectives, 15, 101, 10.1257/jep.15.4.101
Trehan, 1988, Common trends, the government budget constraint, and revenue smoothing, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 425, 10.1016/0165-1889(88)90048-6
Trehan, 1991, Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to U.S. federal budget and current account deficits, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 23, 210, 10.2307/1992777
Trehan, 1991, Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to U.S. federal budget and current account deficits, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 23, 210, 10.2307/1992777
Wickens, 2000, Debt and deficit ceilings, and sustainability of fiscal policies: an intertemporal analysis, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62, 197, 10.1111/1468-0084.00168
Wieland, V., Wolters, M.H., 2011. Forecasting and policy making. Mimeo.
Wilcox, 1989, The sustainability of government deficit: implications of the present-value constraint, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 21, 291, 10.2307/1992415
Woodford, 1995, Price level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate, Carnegie Rochester Series on Public Policy, 43, 1, 10.1016/0167-2231(95)90033-0
Woodford, 2003