A methodology to define risk matrices – Application to inland water ways autonomous ships

Victor Bolbot1,2, Gerasimos Theotokatos1, James McCloskey3, Dracos Vassalos1, Evangelos Boulougouris1, Bernard Twomey4
1Maritime Safety Research Centre, Department of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Marine Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom
2Research group on Safe and Efficient Marine and Ship Systems, Department of Mechanical Engineering (Marine Technology), Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
3Maritime & Coastguard Agency, Southampton, United Kingdom
4Department of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Marine Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom

Tài liệu tham khảo

2011 Abaei, 2021, A multinomial process tree for reliability assessment of machinery in autonomous ships, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 210, 107484, 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107484 Abaei, 2021, 108176 2017 Ahluwaja, 2018 Anthony Cox, 2008, What's wrong with risk matrices?, Risk Anal.: Int. J., 28, 497, 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01030.x BV, 2019 Bakdi, 2020, AIS-based multiple vessel collision and grounding risk identification based on adaptive safety domain, J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 8, 5, 10.3390/jmse8010005 Ball, 1998 Blom, 2021, 107788 Bolbot, 2019 Bolbot, 2020, A novel cyber-risk assessment method for ship systems, Saf. Sci., 131, 104908, 10.1016/j.ssci.2020.104908 Bolbot, 2021, A novel risk assessment process: application to an autonomous inland waterways ship, Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng. O J. Risk Reliab. Bolbot, 2022, A Method to Identify and Rank Objects and Hazardous Interactions Affecting Autonomous Ships Navigation, Journal of Navigation, 10.1017/S0373463322000121 Bureau Veritas, 2019, Guidelines for autonomous shipping 2018 Chaal, 2020, An initial hierarchical systems structure for systemic hazard analysis of autonomous ships, 140 Chaal, 2020, A framework to model the STPA hierarchical control structure of an autonomous ship, Saf. Sci., 132, 104939, 10.1016/j.ssci.2020.104939 Chang, 2021, Risk assessment of the operations of maritime autonomous surface ships, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 207, 107324, 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107324 1972 de Vos, 2021, The impact of autonomous ships on safety at sea – a statistical analysis, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 210, 107558, 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107558 Dnv, 2011 DoD, 2012 Du, 2021, An empirical ship domain based on evasive maneuver and perceived collision risk, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 213, 107752, 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107752 Duijm, 2015, Recommendations on the use and design of risk matrices, Saf. Sci., 76, 21, 10.1016/j.ssci.2015.02.014 Duijm, 2009 2010 Eloranta, 2016, 168 2015, Risk acceptance criteria and risk based damage stability 2020 Eurostat, 2020 Eurostat, 2021 2011 Garvey, 2008 Garvey, 2019, Int. J. Syst. Syst. Eng., 9, 28, 10.1504/IJSSE.2019.097901 Geertsma, 2017, Design and control of hybrid power and propulsion systems for smart ships: a review of developments, Appl. Energy, 194, 30, 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.02.060 Goerlandt, 2016, On the assessment of uncertainty in risk diagrams, Saf. Sci., 84, 67, 10.1016/j.ssci.2015.12.001 Govinfo, 2002 Hansen, 2013, Empirical ship domain based on AIS data, J. Navig., 66, 931, 10.1017/S0373463313000489 Hoem, 2019, The present and future of risk assessment of MASS: literature review, 22 Höyhtyä, 2017, 345 1992 2020 Hsu, 2016, Evaluating the risk of operational safety for dangerous goods in airfreights – a revised risk matrix based on fuzzy AHP, Transport. Res. Transport Environ., 48, 235, 10.1016/j.trd.2016.08.018 Hu, 2020, Collision risk assessment based on the vulnerability of marine accidents using fuzzy logic, Int. J. Nav. Archit. Ocean Eng., 12, 541, 10.1016/j.ijnaoe.2020.06.005 2010 2000 2008 2013 2018, 71 2020 2009, 92 Itoh, 2021, Risk assessment of autonomous ship systems, ClassNK technical Journal, 4 Iverson, 2012, Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats, Climatic Change, 114, 231, 10.1007/s10584-012-0412-x Jensen, 2022, Risk assessment matrices for workplace hazards: design for usability, Int. J. Environ. Res. Publ. Health, 19, 2763, 10.3390/ijerph19052763 Kijima, 2003, Automatic collision avoidance system using the concept of blocking area, IFAC Proc. Vol., 36, 223, 10.1016/S1474-6670(17)37811-4 Kim, 2019, Impact of automation technology on gender parity in maritime industry, WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs, 18, 579, 10.1007/s13437-019-00176-w Kontovas, 2009, Formal safety assessment: a critical review, Marine Technology and SNAME News, 46, 45, 10.5957/mtsn.2009.46.1.45 Lawrence, 2011 Lee, 2020, Application of reinforcement learning to fire suppression system of an autonomous ship in irregular waves, Int. J. Nav. Archit. Ocean Eng., 12, 910, 10.1016/j.ijnaoe.2020.11.001 Levine, 2012, Improving risk matrices: the advantages of logarithmically scaled axes, J. Risk Res., 15, 209, 10.1080/13669877.2011.634514 Li, 2018, How to design rating schemes of risk matrices: a sequential updating approach, Risk Anal., 38, 99, 10.1111/risa.12810 MacroTrends, 2020 Meyer, 2016 Montewka, 2018, Challenges, solution proposals and research directions in safety and risk assessment of autonomous shipping, Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management PSAM, 14, 16 Namgung, 2021, Collision risk inference system for maritime autonomous surface ships using COLREGs rules compliant collision avoidance, IEEE Access, 9, 7823, 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3049238 Ni, 2010, Some extensions on risk matrix approach, Saf. Sci., 48, 1269, 10.1016/j.ssci.2010.04.005 Nzengu, 2021 Oliveira, 2018, Designing and exploring risk matrices with MACBETH, Int. J. Inf. Technol. Decis. Making, 17, 45, 10.1142/S0219622015500170 Pietrzykowski, 2021, Effective ship domain–Impact of ship size and speed, Ocean Eng., 219, 108423, 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2020.108423 Poggi, 2020, Recent developments in remote inspections of ship structures, Int. J. Nav. Archit. Ocean Eng., 12, 881, 10.1016/j.ijnaoe.2020.09.001 Rodseth, 2015, 36 Rødseth, 2015, Risk assessment for an unmanned merchant ship, TransNav: International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, 9, 357, 10.12716/1001.09.03.08 Rozell, 2018, The ethical foundations of risk analysis, Risk Anal., 38, 1529, 10.1111/risa.12971 Ruan, 2015, Risk matrix integrating risk attitudes based on utility theory, Risk Anal., 35, 1437, 10.1111/risa.12400 1996 Skjong, 2002, Risk Acceptance Criteria: current proposals and IMO position, 4 Szlapczynski, 2017, Review of ship safety domains: models and applications, Ocean Eng., 145, 277, 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2017.09.020 Tam, 2018, 1 Thomas, 2014, The risk of using risk matrices, SPE Econ. Manag., 6, 56, 10.2118/166269-PA Utne, 2020, Towards supervisory risk control of autonomous ships, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 196, 106757, 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106757 van Cappelle, 2018, Survey on short-term technology developments and readiness levels for autonomous shipping, 106 van Lieshout, 2021, 532 Vinnem, 2014, vol. 1 Vinnem, 2021, Assessment of risk tolerance for future autonomous offshore installations, Saf. Sci., 134, 105059, 10.1016/j.ssci.2020.105059 Wang, 2010, An intelligent spatial collision risk based on the quaternion ship domain, J. Navig., 63, 733, 10.1017/S0373463310000202 Wang, 2020 Wennersberg, 2019 2021 Wróbel, 2017, Towards the assessment of potential impact of unmanned vessels on maritime transportation safety, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 165, 155, 10.1016/j.ress.2017.03.029 Wróbel, 2018, Towards the development of a system-theoretic model for safety assessment of autonomous merchant vessels, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 178, 209, 10.1016/j.ress.2018.05.019 Yang, 2015, Path planning on satellite images for unmanned surface vehicles, Int. J. Nav. Archit. Ocean Eng., 7, 87, 10.1515/ijnaoe-2015-0007 Zhou, 2021, Navigation safety domain and collision risk index for decision support of collision avoidance of USVs, Int. J. Nav. Archit. Ocean Eng., 13, 340, 10.1016/j.ijnaoe.2021.03.001