A generalized equilibrium model for predicting daily to interannual shoreline response

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface - Tập 119 Số 9 - Trang 1936-1958 - 2014
Kristen D. Splinter1, Ian L. Turner1, Mark Davidson2, Patrick L. Barnard3, Bruno Castelle4, Joan Oltman‐Shay5
1Water Research Laboratory, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering; UNSW Australia; Sydney New South Wales Australia
2School of Marine Science and Engineering, Plymouth University, Plymouth, UK
3United States Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, California, USA
4Université de Bordeaux, CNRS, UMR 5805 EPOC, Pessac, France
5NorthWest Research Associates Redmond Washington USA

Tóm tắt

Abstract

Coastal zone management requires the ability to predict coastline response to storms and longer‐term seasonal to interannual variability in regional wave climate. Shoreline models typically rely on extensive historical observations to derive site‐specific calibration. To circumvent the challenge that suitable data sets are rarely available, this contribution utilizes twelve 5+ year shoreline data sets from around the world to develop a generalized model for shoreline response. The shared dependency of model coefficients on local wave and sediment characteristics is investigated, enabling the model to be recast in terms of these more readily measurable quantities. Study sites range from microtidal to macrotidal coastlines, spanning moderate‐ to high‐energy beaches. The equilibrium model adopted here includes time varying terms describing both the magnitude and direction of shoreline response as a result of onshore/offshore sediment transport between the surf zone and the beach face. The model contains two coefficients linked to wave‐driven processes: (1) the response factor (φ) that describes the “memory” of a beach to antecedent conditions and (2) the rate parameter (c) that describes the efficiency with which sand is transported between the beach face and surf zone. Across all study sites these coefficients are shown to depend in a predictable manner on the dimensionless fall velocity (Ω), that in turn is a simple function of local wave conditions and sediment grain size. When tested on an unseen data set, the new equilibrium model with generalized forms ofφandcexhibited high skill (Brier Skills Score, BSS = 0.85).

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Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface

Tập 119 Số 9

1936-1958

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