A general theory of bibliometric and other cumulative advantage processes

Wiley - Tập 27 Số 5 - Trang 292-306 - 1976
Derek de Solla Price1
1Department of History of Science and Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520

Tóm tắt

AbstractA Cumulative Advantage Distribution is proposed which models statistically the situation in which success breeds success. It differs from the Negative Binomial Distribution in that lack of success, being a non‐event, is not punished by increased chance of failure. It is shown that such a stochastic law is governed by the Beta Function, containing only one free parameter, and this is approximated by a skew or hyperbolic distribution of the type that is widespread in bibliometrics and diverse social science phenomena. In particular, this is shown to be an appropriate underlying probabilistic theory for the Bradford Law, the Lotka Law, the Pareto and Zipf Distributions, and for all the empirical results of citation frequency analysis. As side results one may derive also the obsolescence factor for literature use. The Beta Function is peculiarly elegant for these manifold purposes because it yields both the actual and the cumulative distributions in simple form, and contains a limiting case of an inverse square law to which many empirical distributions conform.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Simon H. A., 1957, Models of Man: Social and Rational. Chapter 9: On a Class of Skew Distribution Functions

Feller W., 1968, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications

10.2307/3001850

Bliss C. I., 1956, The Analysis of Insect Counts as Negative Binomial Distributions, Proceedings of the Tenth International Congress of Entomology., 2, 1015

Williamson E., 1963, Tables of the Negative Binomial Probability Distribution

Yule G. U.1924. “A Mathematical Theory of Evolution based on the Conclusions of Dr. J. C. Willis F. R. S.”Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society1924B. 213:21–87.

Hill B., 1970, Zipf's Law and Prior Distributions for the Composition of a Population, Journal of the American Statistical Association., 65, 1220, 10.1080/01621459.1970.10481157

Hill B., 1974, Rank Frequency Forms of Zipf's Law, Journal of the American Statistical Association., 69, 1017, 10.1080/01621459.1974.10480247

Crowley C. J.1975. “The Distribution of Citations to Scientific Papers: A Model.” Presented at Midwest Sociological Society meeting Chicago April1975(unpublished).

Hill B., 1975, Stronger Forms of Zipf's Law, Journal of the American Statistical Association., 70, 212, 10.1080/01621459.1975.10480291

10.2307/3212857

10.2307/2285930

Cole J. R., 1973, Social Stratification in Science

10.1108/eb026481

Narin F., 1976, Evaluation Bibliometrics: The Use of Publication and Citation Analysis in the Evaluation of Scientific Activity

10.1038/224953a0

10.1038/227631a0

10.1177/030631277600600205

Groos O. V.1967. “Bradford's Law and the Keenan‐Atherton Data.”American Documentation.1967 18:46.

10.1108/eb026424

10.1002/asi.4630220203

Shockley W., 1957, On the Statistics of Individual Variations of Productivity in Research Laboratories, Proceedings of the Institute of Radio Engineers., 45, 279

10.1073/pnas.59.4.1078

Lotka A. J., 1926, The Frequency Distribution of Scientific Productivity, Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences., 16, 317

10.7312/pric91844

Price D. de S., 1976, Studies in Scientometrics. Part I: Transience and Continuance in Scientific Authorship, International Forum on Information and Documentation. International Federation for Documentation Proceedings, 1, 17

Price D. de S., 1965, Networks of Scientific Papers, Science., 149

Yermish I.Private communication.1976 March 17.

Crowley C. J.1975. “The Distribution of Citations to Scientific Papers: A Model.” paper presented at Midwest Sociological Society meeting Chicago. April1975(unpublished).

10.1108/eb026591

Garfield E.1974. “Selecting the All‐Time Citation Classics. Here Are the Fifty Most Cited Papers for 1961–1972.”Current Contents. Editorial (2):1974January 9.

Garfield E.1976. “Is the Ratio Between Number of Citations & Publications Cited a True Constant.”Current Contents Editorial Current Comments (6)1976February 9.

Price D. de S., 1976, The Relation between Source Author and Cited Author Populations, International Forum on Information and Documentation. International Federation for Documentation, 1, 19

10.1108/eb026448

10.1177/030631277500500106

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Wiley

Tập 27 Số 5

292-306

Thông tin tác giả