A framework for quantifying the magnitude and variability of community responses to global change drivers

Ecosphere - Tập 6 Số 12 - Trang 1-14 - 2015
Meghan L. Avolio1,2, Kimberly J. La Pierre3, Gregory R. Houseman4, Sally E. Koerner5, Emily Grman6, Forest Isbell7, David Samuel Johnson8,9, Kevin R. Wilcox5
1Department of Biology University of Utah Salt Lake City, Utah 84112 USA
2National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, Annapolis, Maryland 21401 USA
3Department of Integrative Biology, University of California–Berkeley, Berkeley, California 94720 , USA
4Department of Biological Sciences, Wichita State University, Wichita, Kansas 67026 USA
5Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523 USA
6Department of Biology, Eastern Michigan University, Ypsilanti, Michigan 48197, USA
7Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota 55108 USA
8Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, Virginia 23062 USA
9Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA

Tóm tắt

A major challenge in global change ecology is to predict the trajectory and magnitude of community change in response to global change drivers (GCDs). Here, we present a new framework that not only increases the predictive power of individual studies, but also allows for synthesis across GCD studies and ecosystems. First, we suggest that by quantifying community dissimilarity of replicates both among and within treatments, we can infer both the magnitude and predictability of community change, respectively. Second, we demonstrate the utility of integrating rank abundance curves with measures of community dissimilarity to understand the species‐level dynamics driving community changes and propose a series of testable hypotheses linking changes in rank abundance curves with shifts in community dissimilarity. Finally, we review six case studies that demonstrate how our new conceptual framework can be applied. Overall, we present a new framework for holistically predicting community responses to GCDs that has broad applicability in this era of unprecedented global change and novel environmental conditions.

Từ khóa


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Ecosphere

Tập 6 Số 12

1-14

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