A continuous simulation of Holocene effective moisture change represented by variability of virtual lake level in East and Central Asia

An C B, Chen F H. 2009. The pattern of Holocene climate change in the arid central Asia: A case study based on lakes. J Lake Sci, 1: 329–334 Anderson L, Abbott M B, Finney B P, Edwards M E. 2005. Palaeohydrology of the Southwest Yukon Territory, Canada, based on multiproxy analyses of lake sediment cores from a depth transect. Holocene, 1: 1172–1183 Anderson L, Finney B P, Shapley M D. 2011. Lake carbonate-δ18O records from the Yukon Territory, Canada: Little Ice Age moisture variability and patterns. Quat Sci Rev, 1: 887–898 Benson L V, Paillet F L. 1989. The use of total lake-surface area as an indicator of climatic change: Examples from the Lahontan Basin. Quat Res, 1: 262–275 Berger A L. 1978. Long-term variations of caloric insolation resulting from the Earth’s orbital elements. Quat Res, 1: 139–167 Berger A, Loutre M F. 1991. Insolation values for the climate of the last 10 million years. Quat Sci Rev, 1: 297–317 Bian Y M, Yu J, Shao Z G, Han J E, He C G. 2013. Palynological assemblages in the Paiku Co basin of Tibet since late pleistocene and their paleoclimatic significance (in Chinese). Acta Geosci Sin, 1: 87–94 Boomer I, Aladin N, Plotnikov I, Whatley R. 2000. The palaeolimnology of the Aral Sea: A review. Quat Sci Rev, 1: 1259–1278 Brenner M, Dorsey K, Song X L, Wang Z G, Long R H, Binford M W, Whitmore T J, Moore A M. 1991. Paleolimnology of Qilu Hu, Yunnan province, China. Hydrobiologia, 1: 333–340 Chen F H, Wu W, Holmes J A, Madsen D B, Zhu Y, Jin M, Oviatt C G. 2003. A mid-Holocene drought interval as evidenced by lake desiccation in the Alashan Plateau, Inner Mongolia, China. Chin Sci Bull, 1: 1401–1410 Cheng J, Liu Z Y, He F, Otto-Bliesner B, Brady E, Lynch-Stieglitz J. 2014. Model-proxy comparison for overshoot phenomenon of Atlantic thermohaline circulation at Bølling-Allerød. Chin Sci Bull, 1: 4510–4515 Cui M L, Luo Y L, Sun X J. 2006. Paleovegetational and paleoclimatic changes in Ha’ni Lake, Jilin since 5 ka BP (in Chinese). Mar Geol Quat Geol, 1: 117–122 Davis M, Douglas C, Calcote R, Cole K L, Winkler M G, Flakne R. 2000. Holocene climate in the Western Great Lakes National Parks and Lakeshores: Implications for future climate change. Conserv Biol, 1: 968–983 Dickinson R E, Henderson-Sellers A, Kennedy P J. 1993. NCAR Technical Notes Dickson D R, Yepsen J H, Vern Hales J. 1965. Saturated vapor pressures over Great Salt Lake brine. J Geophys Res, 1: 500–503 Ferronskii V I, Polyakov V A, Brezgunov V S, Vlasova L S, Karpychev Y A, Bobkov A F, Romaniovskii V V, Johnson T, Ricketts D, Rasmussen K. 2003. Variations in the hydrological regime of Kara-Bogaz-Gol Gulf, Lake Issyk-Kul, and the Aral Sea assessed based on data of bottom sediment studies. Water Resour, 1: 252–259 Fleitmann D, Burns S J, Mudelsee M, Neff U, Kramers J, Mangini A, Matter A. 2003. Holocene forcing of the Indian Monsoon recorded in a stalagmite from Southern Oman. Science, 1: 1737–1739 Rossit C A, Laura P A A, Bambill D, Fontes J C, Gasse F, Gibert E. 1996. Holocene environmental changes in Lake Bangong basin (Western Tibet). Part 1: Chronology and stable isotopes of carbonates of a Holocene lacustrine core. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol, 1: 25–47 Hu G, Wang N A, Zhao Q, Cheng H Y, Chen Y S, Guo J Y. 2003. Water balance of Huahai Lake basin during a special phase (in Chinese). J Glaciol Geocryol, 1: 485–490 Hodell D A, Brenner M, Kanfoush S L, Curtis J H, Stoner J S, Song X L, Wu Y, Whitmore T J. 1999. Paleoclimate of Southwestern China for the past 50000 yr inferred from lake sediment records. Quat Res, 1: 369–380 He F. 2011. Simulating Transient Climate Evolution of the Last Deglaciation with CCSM 3. Doctoral Dissertation. Madison: University of Wisconsin He F, Shakun J D, Clark P U, Carlson A E, Liu Z Y, Otto-Bliesner B L, Kutzbach J E. 2013. Northern Hemisphere forcing of Southern Hemisphere climate during the last deglaciation. Nature, 1: 81–85 Hou G L, E C Y, Xiao J Y. 2012. Synthetical reconstruction of the precipitation series of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the Holocene (in Chinese). Prog Geogr 1: 1117–1123 Hostetler S W, Bartlein P J. 1990. Simulation of lake evaporation with application to modeling lake level variations of Harney-Malheur Lake, Oregon. Water Resour Res, 1: 2603–2612 Hostetler S W, Small E E. 1999. Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates. J Am Water Resour Assoc, 1: 1625–1637 Innes J L. 1991. High-altitude and high-latitude tree growth in relation to past, present and future global climate change. Holocene, 1: 168–173 Jiang W Y, Guo Z T, Sun X J, Wu H B, Chu G Q, Yuan B Y, Christine H, Joel G. 2006. Reconstruction of climate and vegetation changes of Lake Bayanchagan (Inner Mongolia): Holocene variability of the East Asian monsoon. Quat Res, 1: 411–420 Jie D M, Lv J F, Li Z M, Leng X T, Wang S Z, Zhang G R. 2001. Carbonate content of sedimentary core and Holocene lake-level fluctuation of Dabusu lake (in Chinese). Mar Geol Quat Geol, 1: 77–82 Jin C F, Günther F, Li S J, Jia G D, Peng P A, Gleixner G. 2016. Reduced early Holocene moisture availability inferred from δD values of sedimentary n-alkanes in Zigetang Co, Central Tibetan Plateau. Holocene, 1: 556–566 Joos F, Spahni R. 2008. Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20000 years. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 1: 1425–1430 Kundu P K, Allen J S. 1976. Some three-dimensional characteristics of low-frequency current fluctuations near the Oregon coast. J Phys Oceanogr, 1: 181–199 Li C H, Wu Y H, Hou X H. 2011. Holocene vegetation and climate in Northeast China revealed from Jingbo Lake sediment. Quat Int, 1: 67–73 Li D W, Li Y K, Ma B Q, Dong G C, Wang L Q, Zhao J X. 2009. Lakelevel fluctuations since the Last Glaciation in the Selin Co (Lake), Central Tibet, investigated using optically stimulated luminescence dating of beach Ridges. Environ Res Lett, 1: 1–10 Li W Y, Yao Z J. 1993. Late Quaternary Vegetation and Environment of North and Middle Subtropical Region of China (in Chinese). Beijing: China Ocean Press. 54–61 Li X Z, Liu X J, He Y X, Liu W G, Zhou X, Wang Z. 2018. Summer moisture changes in the Lake Qinghai area on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded from a meadow section over the past 8400 yrs. Glob Planet Change, 1: 1–9 Li Y, Morrill C. 2010. Multiple factors causing Holocene lake-level change in monsoonal and arid central Asia as identified by model experiments. Clim Dyn, 1: 1119–1132 Li Y, Morrill C. 2013. Lake levels in Asia at the Last Glacial Maximum as indicators of hydrologic sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations. Quat Sci Rev, 1: 1–12 Li Y, Liu Y. 2016. The response of lake records to the circulation system and climate zones in China since the Last Glacial Maximum (in Chinese). Acta Geogr Sin, 1: 1898–1910 Li Y, Wang Y, Zhang C Q, Zhou X H, Wang N A. 2014. Changes of sedimentary facies and Holocene environments in the middle reaches of inland rivers, arid China: A case study of the Shiyang River (in Chinese). Geogr Res, 1: 1866–1880 Li Yu, Liu Y. 2017. Long-term reconstructions and simulations of the hydrological cycle in the inland rivers, arid China: A case study of the Shiyang River drainage basin (in Chinese). Adv Earth Sci, 1: 731–743 Liu X Q, Herzschuh U, Shen J, Jiang Q F, Xiao X Y. 2008a. Holocene environmental and climatic changes inferred from Wulungu Lake in northern Xinjiang, China. Quat Res, 1: 412–425 Liu X Q, Dong H L, Jason A R, Matsumoto R, Bo Y, Wang Y B. 2008b. Evolution of Chaka Salt Lake in NW China in response to climatic change during the Latest Pleistocene-Holocene. Quat Sci Rev, 1: 867–879 Liu Z Y, Otto-Bliesner B L, He F, Brady E C, Tomas R, Clark P U, Carlson A E, Lynch-Stieglitz J, Curry W, Brook E J, Erickson D, Jacob R, Kutzbach J, Cheng J. 2009. Transient simulation of last deglaciation with a new mechanism for bølling-allerød warming. Science, 1: 310–314 Luoto T P, Sarmaja-Korjonen K. 2011. Midge-inferred Holocene effective moisture fluctuations in a subarctic lake, northern Lapland. Boreas, 1: 650–659 Ma C M, Zhu C, Zheng C G, Wu C L, Guan Y, Zhao Z P, Huang L Y, Huang R. 2008. High-resolution geochemistry records of climate changes since late-glacial from Dajiuhu peat in Shennongjia Mountains, Central China. Chin Sci Bull, 1: 28–41 Madsen D B, Haizhou M, Rhode D, Brantingham P J, Forman S L. 2008. Age constraints on the Late Quaternary evolution of Qinghai Lake, Tibetan Plateau. Quat Res, 1: 316–325 Mishra P K, Anoop A, Schettler G, Prasad S, Jehangir A, Menzel P, Naumann R, Yousuf A R, Basavaiah N, Deenadayalan K, Wiesner M G, Gaye B. 2015. Reconstructed late Quaternary hydrological changes from Lake Tso Moriri, NW Himalaya. Quat Int, 1: 76–86 Morrill C. 2004. The influence of Asian summer monsoon variability on the water balance of a Tibetan lake. J Paleolimnol, 1: 273–286 Morrill C, Small E E, Sloan L C. 2001. Modeling orbital forcing of lake level change: Lake Gosiute (Eocene), North America. Glob Planet Change, 1: 57–76 Ning L, Liu J, Bradley R S, Yan M. 2019. Comparing the spatial patterns of climate change in the 9th and 5th millennia BP from TRACE-21 model simulations. Clim Past, 1: 41–52 Peltier W R. 2004. Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age Earth: The ICE-5G (VM 2) model and GRACE. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci, 1: 111–149 Pollard D, Schulz M. 1994. A model for the potential locations of Triassic evaporite basins driven by paleoclimatic GCM simulations. Glob Planet Change, 1: 233–249 Qin B Q, Yu G. 1998. Implications of lake level variations at 6 ka and 18 ka in mainland Asia. Glob Planet Change, 1: 59–72 Rahmstorf S, Crucifix M, Ganopolski A, Goosse H, Kamenkovich I, Knutti R, Lohmann G, Marsh R, Mysak L A, Wang Z, Weaver A J. 2005. Thermohaline circulation hysteresis: A model intercomparison. Geophys Res Lett, 1: 1–5 Ricketts R D, Johnson T C, Brown E T, Rasmussen K A, Romanovsky V V. 2001. The Holocene paleolimnology of Lake Issyk-Kul, Kyrgyzstan: Trace element and stable isotope composition of ostracodes. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol, 1: 207–227 Sharma A, Huang H P, Zavialov P, Khan V. 2018. Impact of desiccation of Aral Sea on the regional climate of central Asia using WRF model. Pure Appl Geophys, 1: 465–478 Sevastyanov D V, Smirnova N P. 1986. Issik Kul Lake and Tendency of its Natural Development (in Russian). Leningrad: Nauka. 256 Sevastyanov D V, Dorofeyuk N I. 1992. The history of the water ecosystem of Mongolia (in Russian). Izv Vses Geogr Obshch, 1: 123–138 Shen J. 2013. Spatiotemporal variations of Chinese lakes and their driving mechanisms since the Last Glacial Maximum: A review and synthesis of lacustrine sediment archives. Chin Sci Bull, 1: 17–31 Shen J, Liu X Q, Wang S M, Matsumotob R. 2005a. Palaeoclimatic changes in the Qinghai Lake area during the last 18000 years. Quat Int, 1: 131–140 Shen J, Wu R J, An Z S. 1998. Characters of the organic δ13C and paleoenvironment in the section of Dabusu Lake (in Chinese). J Lake Sci, 1: 8–10 Shen J, Yang L Y, Yang X D, Matsumoto R, Tong G B, Zhu Y X, Zhang Z K, Wang S M. 2005b. Lake sediment records on climate change and human activities since the Holocene in Erhai catchment, Yunnan Province, China. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 1: 353–363 Stommel H. 1961. Thermohaline convection with two stable regimes of flow. Tellus, 1: 224–230 Sun Q L, Wang S M, Zhou J, Cheng Z Y, Shen J, Xie X P, Wu F, Chen P. 2010. Sediment geochemistry of Lake Daihai, north-central China: Implications for catchment weathering and climate change during the Holocene. J Paleolimnol, 1: 75–87 Sun Q L, Wang S M, Zhou J, Shen J, Chen P, Xie X P, Wu F. 2009. Lake surface fluctuations since the late glaciation at Lake Daihai, North central China: A direct indicator of hydrological process response to East Asian monsoon climate. Quat Int, 1: 45–54 Tang L Y. 1992. Vegetation and climate history at Menghai, Yunnan during the past 42000 years (in Chinese). Acta Micropalaeontol Sin, 1: 433–455 Tarasov P E, Kremenetskii K V. 1995. Geochronology and stratigraphy of the Holocene lacustrine-bog deposits in northern and central Kazakhstan. Stratigr Geol Correl, 1: 73–80 Wang L, Rioual P, Panizzo V N, Lu H Y, Gu Z Y, Chu G Q, Yang D G, Han J T, Liu J Q, Mackay A W. 2012. A 1000-yr record of environmental change in NE China indicated by diatom assemblages from maar lake Erlongwan. Quat Res, 1: 24–34 Wang W, Feng Z D. 2013. Holocene moisture evolution across the Mongolian Plateau and its surrounding areas: A synthesis of climatic records. Earth-Sci Rev, 1: 38–57 Wang W, Feng Z D, Ran M, Zhang C J. 2013. Holocene climate and vegetation changes inferred from pollen records of lake Aibi, northern Xinjiang, China: A potential contribution to understanding of Holocene climate pattern in East-central Asia. Quat Int, 1: 54–62 Wang Y B, Bekeschus B, Handorf D, Liu X Q, Dallmeyer A, Herzschuh U. 2017. Coherent tropical-subtropical Holocene see-saw moisture patterns in the Eastern Hemisphere monsoon systems. Quat Sci Rev, 1: 231–242 Wang Y, Cheng H, Edwards R L, He Y Q, Kong X G, An Z S, Wu J Y, Kelly M J, Dykoski C A, Li X D. 2005. The Holocene Asian Monsoon: Links to solar changes and North Atlantic climate. Science, 1: 854–857 Weare B C, Newell R E. 1977. Empirical orthogonal analysis of atlantic ocean surface temperatures. Q J R Met Soc, 1: 467–478 Wen R L, Xiao J L, Chang Z G, Zhai D Y, Xu Q H, Li Y C, Itoh S, Lomtatidze Z. 2010. Holocene climate changes in the mid-high-latitude-monsoon margin reflected by the pollen record from Hulun Lake, northeastern Inner Mongolia. Quat Res, 1: 293–303 Wünnemann B, Mischke S, Chen F H. 2006. A Holocene sedimentary record from Bosten Lake, China. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol, 1: 223–238 Wu J, Shen J. 2010a. Paleoclimate evolution since 27.7 ka BP reflected by grain size variation of a sediment core from Lake Xingkai, northeastern Asia (in Chinese). J Lake Sci, 1: 110–118 Wu J, Shen J. 2010b. Paleoenviromental and paleoclimatic changes in Lake Xingkai inferred from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes of bulk organic matter since 28 ka BP (in Chinese). Acta Sedimentol Sin, 1: 365–372 Wu X D, Zhang Z H, Xu X M, Shen J. 2012. Asian summer monsoonal variations during the Holocene revealed by Huguangyan maar lake sediment record. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol, 323–1: 13–21 Wu Y H, Wu R J, Xue B, Qian J L, Xiao J Y. 1998. Paleoenvironmental Evolution in Dianchi Lake Area since 13 ka BP (in Chinese). J Lake Sci, 1: 5–9 Wu Z H, Zhao X T, Wu Z H, Hu D G, Ma Z B, Ye P S, Jiang W. 2005. Active faults and their kinematic feature at the Amdo-Tsona graben, central Xizang (in Chinese). Quat Sci, 1: 490–502 Xiao J L, Chang Z G, Wen R L, Zhai D Y, Itoh S, Lomtatidze Z. 2009. Holocene weak monsoon intervals indicated by low lake levels at Hulun Lake in the monsoonal margin region of northeastern Inner Mongolia, China. Holocene, 1: 899–908 Xiao J L, Xu Q H, Nakamura T, Yang X L, Liang W D, Inouchi Y. 2004. Holocene vegetation variation in the Daihai Lake region of north-central China: A direct indication of the Asian monsoon climatic history. Quat Sci Rev, 1: 1669–1679 Xue B, Yu G. 2010. Changes of atmospheric circulation since the last interstadial as indicated by the lake-status record in China. Acta Geol Sin-Engl Ed, 1: 836–845 Yan M, Liu J. 2019. Physical processes of cooling and mega-drought during the 4.2 ka BP event: Results from TraCE-21 ka simulations. Clim Past, 1: 265–277 Yang H J, Zhao Y Y, Liu Z Y, Li Q, He F, Zhang Q. 2015. Heat transport compensation in atmosphere and ocean over the past 22000 years. Sci Rep, 5: 16661 Yang Y P. 2016. Climate and Environment Changes recorded by sediments from Bangong Co in Tibet since last deglaciation. Dissertation for Master’s Degree. Lanzhou: University of Lanzhou Yao J Q, Chen Y N, Zhao Y, Yu X J. 2018. Hydroclimatic changes of Lake Bosten in Northwest China during the last decades. Sci Rep, 1: 9118 You H T, Liu J Q. 2012. High-resolution climate evolution derived from the sediment records of Erlongwan Maar Lake since 14 ka BP. Chin Sci Bull, 1: 3610–3616 Yu C X, Luo Y L, Sun X J. 2008. A High-resolution pollen records from Ha’ni lake, Jilin, Northern China showing climate changes between 13.1 cal ka BP and 4.5 cal ka BP (in Chinese). Quat Sci, 1: 929–938 Zhai D Y, Xiao J L, Zhou L, Wen R L, Chang Z G, Wang X, Jin X D, Pang Q Q, Itoh S. 2011. Holocene East Asian monsoon variation inferred from species assemblage and shell chemistry of the ostracodes from Hulun Lake, Inner Mongolia. Quat Res, 1: 512–522 Zhang E L, Wang Y B, Sun W W, Shen J. 2016. Holocene Asian monsoon evolution revealed by a pollen record from an alpine lake on the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China. Clim Past, 1: 415–427 Zhang S R, Xiao J L, Xu Q H, Wen R L, Fan J W, Huang Y, Yamagata H. 2018. Differential response of vegetation in Hulun Lake region at the northern margin of Asian summer monsoon to extreme cold events of the last deglaciation. Quat Sci Rev, 1: 57–65 Zhang Y, Gao X, Zhong Z Y, Chen J, Peng B Z. 2009. Sediment accumulation of Dianchi Lake determined by 137Cs dating. J Geogr Sci, 1: 225–238 Zhao Q, Wang N A, Li X G, Cheng H Y, Li Y, Li Gang. 2005. Environmental change around the Qingtu Lake since 9500 a BP (in Chinese). J Glaciol Geocryol, 1: 352–359 Zhao X T, Zhao Y Y, Zheng M P, Ma Z B, Cao J K, Li M H. 2011. Late Quaternary lake development and denivellation of Bankog Co as well as lake evolution of southeastern North Tibetan Plateau during the last Great Lake Period (in Chinese). Acta Geosci Sin, 1: 13–26 Zhao Y T, An C B, Mao L M, Zhao J J, Tang L Y, Zhou A F, Li H, Dong W M, Duan F T, Chen F H. 2015. Vegetation and climate history in arid western China during MIS2: New insights from pollen and grain-size data of the Balikun Lake, eastern Tien Shan. Quat Sci Rev, 1: 112–125 Zheng Y H, Pancost R D, Naafs B D A, Li Q Y, Liu Z, Yang H. 2018. Transition from a warm and dry to a cold and wet climate in NE China across the Holocene. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 1: 36–46 Zhong W, Xiong H G. 1998. Isotopic evidence for Holocene climatic changes in Bosten Lake, Southern Xinjiang, China. Chin Geogr Sci, 1: 176–182 Zhou J, Wang S M, Lv J. 2003. Climatic and enviromental changes from the sediment record of Erhai lake over the past 10000 years (in Chinese). J Lake Sci, 1: 104–111 Zhu L P, Zhen X L, Wang J B, Lv H Y, Xie M P, Kitagawa H, Possnert G. 2009. A ∼30000-year record of environmental changes inferred from Lake Chen Co, Southern Tibet. J Paleolimnol, 1: 343–358 Zong Y Q, Yu F L, Huang G Q, Lioyd J M, Yim W W S. 2010. Sedimentary evidence of Late Holocene human activity in the Pearl River delta, China. Earth Surf Process Landforms, 1: 1095–1102