A Systems Analysis of Factors Affecting Leakage in Reduced Emissions From Deforestation and Degradation Projects in Tropical Forests in Developing Nations
Tóm tắt
This paper uses systems analysis to examine the factors that influence leakage in Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) projects in tropical forest areas in developing countries. A causal loop diagram is used to identify some key intervention points for stakeholders to reduce the negative impacts of leakage. One of the most important intervention points identified is to provide livelihood alternatives to supplement the resources and the income that neighbouring small-scale landholders and communities must forego for the REDD initiative to be successful. The question remains, however, of how best to organise and distribute these resource allocations and payments to support the REDD project objectives. It is concluded that in many cases, developing countries with tropical forest coverage are unlikely to benefit from REDD in the foreseeable future, because of constraints related to economies of scale, but also because of political instability and lack of institutional capacity in many of these nations. Moreover, the risk remains that many of these developing countries will suffer from cross-border market leakage due to REDD projects conducted elsewhere, and that this will lead to negative local forest conservation and livelihood outcomes.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Agriculture Food Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) (2005) Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005. FAO forestry paper 147. Forestry Department, Rome
Agriculture Food Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) (2009) State of the World’s Forests 2009. FAO Forestry Department, Rome
Asian Development Bank (2009) Asian Development Outlook 2009–rebuilding Asia’s growth. Asian Development Bank Publications, Mandayulong City, Philippines
Asquith N, Vargas Ríos M, Smith J (2002) Can forest-protetion carbon projects improve rural livelihoods? Analysis of the Noel Kempff Mercado Climate Action Project, Bolivia. Mitigation Adapt Strateg Glob Change 7(1):323–337
Aukland L, Costa PM, Brown S (2003) A conceptual framework for addressing leakage: the case of avoided deforestation. Clim Policy 3:123–136
Berkes F (2004) Rethinking community based conservation. Conserv Biol 18(3):621–630
Bettencourt S, Croad R, Freeman P, Hay J, Jones R, King P, Lal P, Mearns A, Miller G, Pswarayi-Riddihough I, Simpson A, Teuatabo N, Trotz U, Van Aalst M (2006) Not if but when—adapting to natural hazards in the Pacific Islands region, a policy note. The World Bank, East Asia and Pacific Region. Pacific Islands Country Management Unit, Washington DC
Brown C, Durst PB (2003) State of Forestry in Asia and the Pacific 2003—status, changes and trends. Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok
Burt B, Clerk C (1997) Environment and development in the Pacific Islands. National Centre for Development Studies, Canberra
Cacho O, Hean R, Ginoga K, Wise R, Djaenudin D, Lugina M, Wulan Y, Subarudi, Lusiana B, van Noordwijk M and Khasanah N (2008) Economic potential of land-use change and forestry for carbon sequestration and poverty reduction. Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) Technical Reports, No. 68. Canberra
Carter J, Gronow J (2005) Recent experiences in collaborative forest management—a review paper. CIFOR Occasional Paper no. 43. Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Bogor, Indonesia
Dargusch P, Lawrence K, Herbohn J, Medrilizam (2010) A small-scale forestry perspective on constraints to including REDD in international carbon markets. Small-scale Forestry. doi:10.1007/s11842-010-9141-z
DeFries R, Achard F, Brown S, Herold M, Murdiyarso D, Schlamadinger B, de Souza C Jr (2007) Earth observations for estimating greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation in developing countries. Environ Sci Policy 10(4):385–394
Dudley RG (2004) Modeling the effects of a log export ban in Indonesia. Syst Dyn Rev 20(2):99–116
Ebeling J, Yasue M (2008) Generating carbon finance through avoided deforestation and its potential to create climatic, conservation and human development benefits. Phil Trans R Soc B 36(1498):1917–1924
Fiddaman T (2002) Exploring policy options with a behavioral climate-economy model. Syst Dyn Rev 18(2):243–267
Fiddaman T (2007) Dynamics of climate policy. Syst Dyn Rev 23(1):21–34
Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) (2004) FAO and SIDS: challenges and emerging issues in agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Paper Prepared by FAO on the Occasion of the Inter-Regional Conference of Small Island Developing States, Bahamas 26–30 Jan 2004, Rome
Gan J, McCarl BA (2007) Measuring transnational leakage of forest conservation. Ecol Econ 64(4):423–432
Geist H, Lambin E (2001) What drives tropical deforestation? Land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) project IV. International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) V. International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) VI. LUCC Report Series, No. 4, Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC) International Project Office, Belgium
Hamilton K, Bayon R, Turner G. Higgins D (2007) State of the voluntary carbon market 2007: picking up steam—ecosystem marketplace and new carbon
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2000) Land use, land use change and forestry, edited by Watson RT, Noble IR, Bolin B, Ravindranath NH, Verado DJ, Dokken DJ, Chapter 5, Project based activities, edited by Brown S, Masera O, Sathaye J. IPCC Bonn
Kanninen M, Murdiyarso D, Seymour F, Angelsen A, Wunder S, German L (2007) Do trees grow on money? The implications of deforestation research for policies to promote REDD. Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Bogor, Indonesia
Kindermann G, Obersteiner M, Sohngen B, Sathaye J, Andrasko K, Rametsteiner E, Schlamadinger B, Whuder S, Beach R (2008) Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 105(30):10302–10307
Maani KE, Cavana RY (2007) Systems thinking, systems dynamics, 2nd edn. Pearson Education, Rosedale, New Zealand
Magnani F, Dewar RC, Borghetti M (2009) Leakage and spillover effects of forest management on carbon storage: theoretical insights from a simple model. Tellus 61B:385–393
Murray BC, McCarl BA, Lee HC (2004) Estimating leakage from forest carbon sequestration programs. Land Econ 80(1):109–124
Randers J (2000). From Limits to Growth to Sustainable Development: or SD (Sustainable Development) in a SD (System Dynamics) Perspective. System Dynamics Review, Vol. 16, No. 3, Fall, pp. 213–224
Schwarze R, Niles JO, Olander J (2002) Understanding and Managing Leakage in Forest-Based Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Projects. Prepared for The Nature Conservancy and The Royal Society
Sohngen B, Brown S (2004) Measuring leakage from carbon projects in open economies: a stop timber harvesting project in Bolivia as a case study. Can J For Res 34:829–839
Spray SL, Moran MD (eds) (2006) Tropical deforestation. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc. Lanham
Sterman J (2001) System dynamics modeling: tools for learning in a complex world. California Management Review, Vol. 13, No. 1, Summer 2001, pp 8–25
The World Bank (2007) Carbon Finance for Sustainable Development 2007. The World Bank, Carbon Finance Unit, Washington, DC
Verolme HJH, Moussa J (1999) Addressing the underlying causes of deforestation and forest degradation—case studies, analysis and policy recommendations. Biodiversity Action Network, Washington, D.C
Wunder S (2008) How do we deal with leakage? Moving ahead with REDD: issues. Options and Implications d A Angelsen CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia