A Scenario-Based Approach for Assessing the Hydrological Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change in the Marboreh Watershed, Iran

Ali Torabi Haghighi1, Hamid Darabi1, Kaka Shahedi2, Karim Solaimani2, Björn Klöve1
1Water, Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, University of Oulu, P.O. Box 4300, FIN-90014, Oulu, Finland
2Sari Agriculture Science and Natural Resources University, P.O. Box 737, Sari, Iran

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Abbaspour, K. C., Rouholahnejad, E., Vaghefi, S., Srinivasan, R., Yang, H., & Klove, B. (2015). A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model. Journal of Hydrology, 524, 733–752.

Amin, M. Z. M., Shaaban, A. J., Ercan, A., Ishida, K., Kavvas, M. L., & Chen, Z. Q. S. (2017). JangFuture climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology models. Science of the Total Environment, 575, 12–22.

Arnell, N. W., van Vuuren, D. P., & Isaac, M. (2011). The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources. Global Environmental Change, 21(2), 592–603.

Arnold, J. G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R. S., & Williams, J. R. (1998). Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment. Part 1: model development. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 34, 73–89.

Ashraf, F. B., Torabi Haghighi, A., Marttila, H., & Kløve, B. (2016). Assessing impacts of climate change and river regulation on flow regimes in cold climate: a study of a pristine and a regulated river in the sub-arctic setting of northern Europe. Journal of Hydrology, 542, 410–422.

Bangash, R. F., Passuello, A., Sanchez-Canales, M., Terrado, M., López, A., Elorza, F. J., Ziv, G., Acuña, V., & Schuhmacher, M. (2013). Ecosystem services in Mediterranean river basin: climate change impact on water provisioning and erosion control. Science of the Total Environment, 458-460, 246–255.

Bradley, A. P. (1997). The use of the area under the ROC curve in the evaluation of machine learning algorithms. Pattern Recognition, 30, 1145–1159.

Dams, J., Nossent, J., Senbeta, T. B., Willems, P., & Batelaan, O. (2015). Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff. Joural of Hydrology, 529, 1601–1616.

Darabi, H., Choubin, B., Rahmati, O., Haghighi, A. T., Pradhan, B., & Kløve, B. (2019). Urban flood risk mapping using the GARP and QUEST models: a comparative study of machine learning techniques. Journal of Hydrology, 569, 142–154.

Darabi, H., Shahedi, K., Solaimani, K., & Miryaghoubzadeh, M. (2014). Prioritization of subwatersheds based on flooding conditions using hydrological model, multivariate analysis and remote sensing technique. Water and Environmental. Journal., 28, 382–392.

Das, T. (2009). Land use/land cover change detection: an object oriented approach, Thesis: Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies, Institute for Geoinformatics, University of Münster, 70 pp.

El-Khoury, A., Seidou, O., Lapen, D. R., Que, Z., Mohammadian, M., Sunohara, M., & Bahram, D. (2015). Combined impacts of future climate and land use changes on discharge, nitrogen and phosphorus loads for a Canadian river basin. Journal of Environmental Management, 151, 76–86.

Ertürk, A., Ekdal, A., Gürel, M., Karakaya, N., Guzel, C., & Gönenç, E. (2014). Evaluating the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in a small Mediterranean watershed. Science of the Total Environment, 499(15), 437–447.

Fan, M., Shibata, H., & Wang, Q. (2016). Optimal conservation planning of multiple hydrological ecosystem services under land use and climate changes in Teshio river watershed, northernmost of Japan. Ecological Indicators, 62, 1–13.

FAO. (1995). The digital soil map of the world and derived soil properties. Rome: FAO.

Faramarzi, M., Abbaspour, K. C., Schulin, R., & Yang, H. (2009). Modelling blue and green water resources availability in Iran. Hydrological Processes: An International Journal, 23(3), 486–501.

Gocic, M., & Trajkovic, S. (2013). Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Global and Planetary Change, 100, 172–182.

Gohar, A. A., & Cashman, A. (2016). A methodology to assess the impact of climate variability and change on water resources, food security and economic welfare. Agricultural Systems, 147, 51–64.

Hamed, K. H. (2008). Trend detection in hydrologic data: the Mann–Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis. Journal of Hydrology, 349, 350–363.

Hartmann, H., Snow, J. A., Sub, B., & Jiang, T. (2016). Seasonal predictions of precipitation in the Aksu-Tarim River basin for improved water resources management. Global and Planetary Change, 147, 86–96.

Hefzul Bari, S., Rahman, T. U., Hoque Azizul, M., & Hussain, M. (2016). Analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall trends in the northern region of Bangladesh. Atmospheric Research, 176–177(1), 148–158.

Hosseini, M., & Ashraf, M. A. (2015). Application of the SWAT model for water components separation in Iran. Springer Hydrogeology, 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55564-3-2 .

Kalantari, Z., Lyon, S. W., Folkeson, L., French, H. K., Stolte, J., Jansson, P. E., & Sassner, M. (2014). Quantifying the hydrological impact of simulated changes in land use on peak discharge in a small catchment. Science of the Total Environment, 466-467, 741–754.

Karlsson, I. B., Sonnenborg, T. O., Refsgaard, J. C., Trolle, D., Børgesen, C. D., Olesen, J. E., Jeppesen, E., & Jensen, K. H. (2016). Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change. Journal of Hydrololy., 535, 301–317.

Khoi, D. N., & Suetsugi, T. (2014). The responses of hydrological processes and sediment yield to land-use and climate change in the Be River Catchment, Vietnam. Hydrological Processes, 28, 640–652.

Kim, J., Choi, J., Choi, C., & Park, S. (2013). Impacts of changes in climate and land use/land cover IPCC RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, Korea. Science of the Total Environment, 452-453, 181–195.

Koutroulis, A. G., Tsanis, I. K., Daliakopoulos, I. N., & Jacob, D. (2013). Impact of climate change on water resources status: a case study for Crete Island, Greece. Journal of Hydrology, 479, 146–158.

Lespinas, F., Ludwig, W., & Heussner, S. (2014). Hydrological and climatic uncertainties associated with modeling the impact of climate change on water resources of small Mediterranean coastal rivers. Journal of Hydrology, 511, 403–422.

Li, Z., Liu, W. Z., Zhang, X. C., & Zheng, F. L. (2009). Impacts of land use change and climate variability on hydrology in an agricultural catchment on the Loess Plateau of China. Journal of Hydrology, 377(1), 35–42.

Liang, S., Fang, H., & Chen, M. (2001). Atmospheric correction of Landsat ETM+ land surface imagery. I. Methods. IEEE Trans. Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 39(11), 2490–2498.

Lu, H., Bryant, R. B., Buda, A. R., Collick, A. S., Folmar, G. J., & Kleinman, P. J. A. (2015). Long-term trends in climate and hydrology in an agricultural, headwater watershed of central Pennsylvania, USA. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 4, 713–731.

Luo, Y., Ficklin, D. L., Liu, X., & Zhang, M. (2013). Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and water quality with a watershed modeling approach. Science of the Total Environment, 450-451, 72–82.

Magilligan, F. J., & Nislow, K. H. (2005). Changes in hydrologic regime by dams. Geomorphology, 71, 61–78.

Mango, L. M., Melesse, A. M., McClain, M. E., Gann, D., & Setegn, S. G. (2011). Land use and climate change impacts on the hydrology of the upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: results of a modeling study to support better resource management. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 2245–2258.

Mathews, R., & Richter, B. D. (2007). Application of the indicators of hydrologic alteration software in environmental flow setting. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 43(6), 1400–1413.

Meng, F., Su, F., Yang, D., Tong, K., & Hao, Z. (2016). Impacts of recent climate change on the hydrology in the source region of the Yellow River basin. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 6, 66–81.

Montenegro, S., & Ragab, R. (2012). Impact of possible climate and land use changes in the semi-arid regions: a case study from north eastern Brazil. Journal of Hydrology, 434-435, 55–68.

Mosammadian, H. M., Nia, J. T., Khani, H., Teymouri, A., & Kazemi, M. (2017). Monitoring land use change and measuring urban sprawl based on its spatial forms: the case of Qom city. The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science, 20(1), 103–116.

Mourato, S., Moreira, M., & Corte-Real, J. (2015). Water resources impact assessment under climate change scenarios in Mediterranean watersheds, Water Resources. Management, 109(7), 2377–2391.

Nash, J. E., & Sutcliffe, J. V. (1970). River flow forecasting through conceptual models, Part I- A discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology, 10, 282–290.

Neitsch, S. L., Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., & Williams, J. R. (2011). Soil and water assessment tool theoretical documentation. Version 2009. Texas: Texas Water Resources Institute Technical Report No. 406. Texas A&M University System.

Niehoff, D., Fritsch, U., & Bronestert, A. (2002). Land use impacts on storm-runoff generation: scenario of land use change and simulation of hydrological response in a meso-scale catchment in SW-Germany. Journal of Hydrology, 267(1–2), 80–93.

Olden, J. D., & Poff, N. L. (2003). Redundancy and the choice of hydrologic indices for characterizing streamflow regimes. River Research and Applications, 19, 101–121.

Palazón, L., & Navas, A. (2016). Land use sediment production response under different climatic conditions in an alpine–prealpine catchment. Catena, 137, 244–255.

Perilla, O. L. U., Gomez, A. G., Gomez, A. G., Diaz, C. A., & Cortezon, J. A. R. (2012). Methodology to assess sustainable management of water resources in coastal lagoons with agricultural uses: an application to the Albufera lagoon of Valencia (eastern Spain). Ecological Indicators, 13, 129–143.

Perveza, M. S., & Henebry, G. M. (2015). Assessing the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change on the freshwater availability in the Brahmaputra River basin. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 3, 285–311.

Pirnia, A., Golshan, M., Darabi, H., Adamowski, J., & Rozbeh, S. (2018). Using the Mann–Kendall test and double mass curve method to explore stream flow changes in response to climate and human activities. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 162, 1–18.

Pullanikkatil, D., Palamuleni, L., & Ruhiiga, T. (2016). Assessment of land use change in Likangala River catchment, Malawi: a remote sensing and DPSIR approach. Applied Geography, 71, 9–23.

Rahman, K., Silva, A. G., Moran, E. T., Gobiet, A., Beniston, M., & Lehmann, A. (2015). An independent and combined effect analysis of land use and climate change in the upper Rhone River watershed, Switzerland. Applied Geography, 63, 264–272.

Rosmanna, T., Domíngueza, E., & Chavarro, J. (2015). Comparing trends in hydro-meteorological average and extreme data sets around the world at different time scales. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 5, 200–212.

Sahin, S. (2012). An aridity index defined by precipitation and specific humidity. Journal of Hydrology, 444-445, 199–208.

Samadi Boroujeni, H. (2012). Sediment management in hydropower dam (Case Study: Dez Dam project), Hydropower - Practice and Application. ISBN: 978-953-51-0164-2, 29 pp.

Sang, Y. F., Wang, Z., & Liu, C. (2014). Comparison of the MK test and EMD method for trend identification in hydrological time series. Journal of Hydrology, 510, 293–298.

Serpa, D., Nunes, J. P., Santos, J., Sampaio, E., Jacinto, R., Veiga, S., Lima, J. C., Moreira, M., Corte-Real, J., Keizer, J. J., & Abrantes, N. (2015). Impacts of climate and land use changes on the hydrological and erosion processes of two contrasting Mediterranean catchments. Science of the Total Environment, 538, 64–77.

Seung-Hwan, Y., Jin-Yong, C., Sang-Hyun, L., Yun-Gyeong, O., & Dong Koun, Y. (2013). Climate change impacts on water storage requirements of an agricultural reservoir considering changes in land use and rice growing season in Korea. Agricultural Water Management, 117, 43–54.

Shamir, E., Megdal, S. B., Carrillo, C., Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., Chief, K., Corkhill, F. E., E, S., Georgakakos, K. P., Nelson, K. M., & Jacob, P. (2015). Clim. change and water resources management in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona. Journal of Hydrology, 521, 18–33.

Singh, R., Wagener, T., Crane, R., Mann, M. E., & Ning, L. (2014). A vulnerability driven approach to identify adverse climate and land use change combinations for critical hydrologic indicator thresholds: application to a watershed in Pennsylvania, USA. Water Resources Research, 50, 3409–3427.

Su, B., Huang, J., Gemmer, M., Jian, D., Tao, H., Jiang, T., & Zhao, C. (2016). Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for projected changes of climate in the Indus River Basin. Atmospheric Research, 178-179, 138–149.

Sun, L., Nistor, I., & Seidou, O. (2015). Streamflow data assimilation in SWAT model using Extended Kalman Filter. Journal of Hydrology, 531, 671–684.

Tong, S. T., Sun, Y., Ranatunga, T., He, J., & Yang, Y. J. (2012). Predicting plausible impacts of sets of climate and land use change scenarios on water resources. Applied Geography, 32, 477–489.

Torabi Haghighi, A., & Kløve, B. (2015). A sensitivity analysis of Lake water level response to changes in climate and river regimes. Limnologica-Ecology and Management of Inland Waters, 51, 118–130.

Torabi Haghighi, A., Marttila, H., & Kløve, B. (2014). Development of a new index to assess river regime impacts after dam construction. Global and Planetary Change, 122, 186–196.

Torabi Haghighi, A., Menberu, M. W., Darabi, H., Akanegbu, J., & Kløve, B. (2018). Use of remote sensing to analyse peatland changes after drainage for peat extraction. Land Degradation & Development, 29(10), 3479–3488.

Trang, N. T. T., Shrestha, S., Shrestha, M., Datta, A., & Akiyuki, K. (2017). Evaluating the impacts of climate and land-use change on the hydrology and nutrient yield in a transboundary river basin: a case study in the 3S River Basin (Sekong, Sesan, and Srepok). Science of the Total Environment, 576, 586–598.

Tsanis, I. K., Koutroulis, A. G., Daliakopoulos, I. N., & Jacob, D. (2011). Severe climate induced water shortage and extremes in Crete. Climate Change, 106(4), 667–677.

Warburton, M. L., Schulze, R. E., & Jewitt, G. P. W. (2012). Hydrological impacts of land use change in three diverse South African catchments. Journal of Hydrology, 414-415, 118–135.

Ward, P. J., Renssen, H., Aerts, J. C. J. H., van Balen, R. T., & Vandenberghe, J. (2008). Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 12, 159–175.

Welde, K., & Gebremariam, B. (2017). Effect of land use land cover dynamics on hydrological response of watershed: case study of Tekeze Dam watershed, northern Ethiopia. International Soil and Water Conservation Research, 5(1), 1–16.

Wilson, C. O., & Weng, Q. (2011). Simulating the impacts of future land use and climate changes on surface water quality in the Des Plaines River watershed, Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area, Illinois. Science of the Total Environment, 409, 4387–4405.

Wu, T., Yu, Y., Wang, B. (2016). Water resources availability and the growth of housing prices in China. Resour. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.06.022 .

Wu, Y., Liu, S., Sohl, T. L., & Young, C. J. (2013). Projecting the land cover change and its environmental impacts in the Cedar River Basin in the Midwestern United States. Environmental Research Letters, 8(2), 024025.

Yang, L., Feng, Q., Yin, Z., Wen, X., Si, J., Li, C., & Deo, R. C. (2017). Identifying separate impacts of climate and land use/cover change on hydrological processes in upper stream of Heihe River, Northwest China. Hydrological Processes, 31(5), 1100–1112.

Ye, L., & Grimm, N. B. (2013). Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest. Climate Change, 120(1–2), 419–431.

Yira, Y., Diekkrüger, B., Steup, G., & Bossa, A. Y. (2016). Modeling land use change impacts on water resources in a tropical West African catchment. Journal of Hydrology, 537, 187–199.

Zessner, M., Schönhart, M., Parajka, J., Trautvetter, H., Mitter, H., Kirchner, M., Hepp, G., Blaschke, A. P., Strenn, B., & Schmid, E. (2017). A novel integrated modelling framework to assess the impacts of climate and socio-economic drivers on land use and water quality. Science of the Total Environment, 579(1), 1137–1151.

Zhang, A., Zhang, C., Fu, G., Wang, B., Bao, Z., & Zheng, H. (2012). Assessments of impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff with SWAT for the Huifa River Basin, Northeast China. Water Resources Management, 26(8), 2199–2217.

Zhao, A., Zhu, X., Liu, X., Panb, Y., & Zuo, D. (2016). Impacts of land use change and climate variability on green and blue water resources in the Weihe River Basin of northwest China. Catena, 137, 318–327.

Zhou, F., Xu, Y., Chen, Y., Xu, C. Y., Gao, Y., & Dua, J. (2013). Hydrological response to urbanization at different spatio-temporal scales simulated by coupling of CLUE-S and the SWAT model in the Yangtze River Delta region. Journal of Hydrology, 485, 113–125.

Zuo, D., Xu, Z., Yao, W., Jin, S., Xiao, P., & Ran, D. (2016). Assessing the effects of changes in land use and climate on runoff and sediment yields from a watershed in the Loess Plateau of China. Science of the Total Environment, 544, 238–250.

Torabi Haghighi, A., & Kløve, B. (2017). Design of environmental flow regimes to maintain lakes and wetlands in regions with high seasonal irrigation demand. Ecological Engineering, 100, 120–129.

Neupane, R. P., White, J. D., & Alexander, S. E. (2015) Projected hydrologic changes in monsoon-dominated Himalaya Mountain basins with changing climate and deforestation. Journal of Hydrology, 525, 216–230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.03.048 .