A Revised Alverson and Carney Model for Estimating the Instantaneous Rate of Natural Mortality

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society - Tập 135 Số 3 - Trang 620-633 - 2006
Chang‐Ik Zhang1, Bernard A. Megrey2
1Pukyong National University, College of Fisheries Science, Department of Marine Production Management , 599-1 Daeyeon 3-Dong, Nam-Gu, Busan, 608-737, Korea
2National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service , Alaska Fisheries Science Center , 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, Washington, 98115, USA

Tóm tắt

Abstract

The Alverson and Carney (AC) model for estimating the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) was reformulated to include β andt0parameters. The revised Zhang and Megrey (ZM) model could be used for the estimation ofMinstead of the AC model since von Bertalanffy and allometric growth parameters are readily available for most exploited fish stocks. It was determined from the new formulation that the ratios of the age at maximum biomass (tmb) to the maximum age (tmax) for pelagic and demersal species were significantly different from 0.38, the value originally proposed by Alverson and Carney. The ratios for these two ecological groups were 0.302 and 0.440, respectively, and were significantly different. We examined the sensitivity and bias inMfrom the new formulation relative to those from the AC model, which assumed that β = 3.0 andt0= 0. Estimates ofMfrom the AC model are most sensitive to the assumption that growth starts att0= 0 when growth rates are high as well as to the β andtmbassumptions. The performance of the revised ZM model was evaluated by comparing calculatedMvalues from the two models based on a paired‐samplet‐test. The results of the two statistical analyses showed that the ZM model produced values ofMcloser to published estimates than did the AC model. Thus, the ratiotmb/tmaxfor specific ecological groups should be used rather than Alverson and Carney's constant 0.38. Analyses of exploited stock dynamics might be conducted using the possible range ofMinstead of the constant value. The range could be estimated from the ZM model using the mean ratiotmb/tmax± SD to get thetmbfor each subgroup or by explicit variance calculations.

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