A Multiplicative Error Model with Heterogeneous Components for Forecasting Realized Volatility

Journal of Forecasting - Tập 34 Số 3 - Trang 209-219 - 2015
Heejoon Han1, Myung D. Park2, Shen Zhang3
1Department of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
2Korea Energy Economics Institute, Ulsan, Republic of Korea
3SCAPE, Department of Economics, National University of Singapore

Tóm tắt

To forecast realized volatility, this paper introduces a multiplicative error model that incorporates heterogeneous components: weekly and monthly realized volatility measures. While the model captures the long‐memory property, estimation simply proceeds using quasi‐maximum likelihood estimation. This paper investigates its forecasting ability using the realized kernels of 34 different assets provided by the Oxford‐Man Institute's Realized Library. The model outperforms benchmark models such as ARFIMA, HAR, Log‐HAR and HEAVY‐RM in within‐sample fitting and out‐of‐sample (1‐, 10‐ and 22‐step) forecasts. It performed best in both pointwise and cumulative comparisons of multi‐step‐ahead forecasts, regardless of loss function (QLIKE or MSE). Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Từ khóa


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Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Journal of Forecasting

Tập 34 Số 3

209-219

Thông tin tác giả