A Hazard Model of the Probability of Medical School Drop-Out in the UK
Tóm tắt
From individual level longitudinal data for two entire cohorts of medical students in UK universities, we use multilevel models to analyse the probability that an individual student will drop out of medical school. We find that academic preparedness—both in terms of previous subjects studied and levels of attainment therein—is the major influence on withdrawal by medical students. Additionally, males and more mature students are more likely to withdraw than females or younger students respectively. We find evidence that the factors influencing the decision to transfer course differ from those affecting the decision to drop out for other reasons.
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Angel, 2000, Broadening access to undergraduate medical education, Br. Med. J., 321, 1136, 10.1136/bmj.321.7269.1136
Arulampalam, 2003, Factors affecting the probability of first-year medical student dropout in the UK: a logistic analysis for the intake cohorts of 1980-1992, Med. Educ.
Booth, 1995, The hazards of doing a PhD: an analysis of completion and withdrawal rates of British PhD students in the 1980s, J. R. Statist. Soc., 158, 297, 10.2307/2983293
Goldstein, 2003, Multilevel Statistical Models
Higher Education Funding Council for England, 2001, Increasing medical student numbers in England
Lawless, 1987, Negative binomial and mixed Poisson regression, Can. J. Statist., 15, 209, 10.2307/3314912
Machin, 2000, UK economics and the future supply of academic economists, Econ. J., 110, F334, 10.1111/1468-0297.00542
McManus, 1996, Drop-out rate in medical school seems reasonable, Br. Med. J., 313, 173, 10.1136/bmj.313.7050.173a
McManus, 1998, Factors affecting likelihood of applicants being offered a place in medical schools in the United Kingdom in 1996 and 1997: retrospective study, Br. Med. J., 317, 1111, 10.1136/bmj.317.7166.1111
McManus, 1999, Intercalated degrees, learning styles, and career preferences: prospective longitudinal study of UK medical students, Br. Med. J., 319, 542, 10.1136/bmj.319.7209.542
Mealli, 1996, Training duration and post-training outcomes: a duration-limited competing risks model, Econ. J., 106, 422, 10.2307/2235257
Medical Workforce Standing Advisory Committee, 1997, Planning the medical workforce: third report
Moffitt, 1996, Symposium on school quality and educational outcomes: introduction, Rev. Econ. Statist., 78, 559, 10.2307/2109947
Narendranathan, 1993, How does the benefit effect vary as unemployment spells lengthen, J. Appl. Econometr., 8, 361, 10.1002/jae.3950080405
Narendranathan, 1993, Modelling the probability of leaving unemployment: competing risks models with flexible base-line hazards, Appl. Statist., 42, 63, 10.2307/2347410
Parkhouse, 1996, Intake, output, and drop out in United Kingdom medical schools, Br. Med. J., 312, 885, 10.1136/bmj.312.7035.885
Porter, 1990, Undergraduate Completion and Persistence in Four-year Colleges and Universities
Rabe-Hesketh, 2001, GLLAMM manual
Smith, 2001, Determinants of individual degree performance, Oxf. Bull. Econ. Statist., 63, 29, 10.1111/1468-0084.00208
Smith, 2001, Dropping out of university: a statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students, J. R. Statist. Soc., 164, 389, 10.1111/1467-985X.00209
Stata Corporation, 2001, Statistical Software
Tinto, 1975, Dropout from higher education: a theoretical synthesis of recent research, Rev. Educ. Res., 45, 89, 10.3102/00346543045001089
Tinto, 1987, Leaving College: Rethinking the Causes and Cures of Student Attrition
Van Ours, 2000, Discussion Paper 2363