A Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model for extreme temperatures in Extremadura (Spain) simulated by a Regional Climate Model
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Alexandru A, Elia R, Laprise R, Separovic L, Biner S (2009) Sensitivity study of regional climate model simulations to large-scale nudging parameters. Mon Weather Rev 137:1666–1686. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2620.1
Banerjee S, Gelfand AE, Finley AO, Sang H (2008) Gaussian predictive process models for large spatial data sets. J. Royal Statistical Society, B 70(4):825–848
Barriopedro D, Fischer EM, Luterbacher J, Trigo RM, García-Herrera R (2011) The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe. Science 332:220–224. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201224
Bartolomeu S, Carvalho MJ, Marta-Almeida M, Melo-Gonçalves P, Rocha A (2016) Recent trends of extreme precipitation indices in the Iberian Peninsula using observations and WRF model results. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 94:10–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2016.06.005. 3rd International Conference on Ecohydrology, Soil and Climate Change, EcoHCC’14
Berliner LM (2003) Physical-statistical modeling in geophysics. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 108(D24). https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002865
Brown SJ, Caesar J, Ferro CAT (2008) Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950. J. Geophysical Reseach 113:05115. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008091
Bukovsky MS (2012) Temperature trend in the NARCACAP regional climate models. J Clim 25:3985–3991. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00588.1
Casson E, Coles S (1999) Spatial Regression Models for Extremes. Extremes 1(4):449–468
Chen F, Dudhia J (2001) Coupling an advanced land surface-hydrology model with the Penn State–NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model implementation and sensitivity. Monthly Weather Review 129: 569–585. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0569:CAALSH>2.0.CO;2
Coles S (2001) An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer, London, p 208
Cooley D (2013) Return periods and return levels under climate change. In: AghaKouchak, A., Easterling, D., Hsu, K., Schubert, S., Sorooshian, S. (eds.) Extremes in a Changing Climate, pp. 97–114. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4479-0
Cooley D, Sain SR (2010) Spatial Hierarchical Modeling of Precipitation Extremes From a Regional Climate Model. J Agric Biol Environ Stat 15(3):381–402
Cooley D, Nychka D, Naveau P (2007) Bayesian spatial modeling of extreme precipitation return levels. J Am Stat Assoc 102(479):824–840
Cowles MK, Carlin BP (1996) Markov Chain Monte Carlo Convergence Diagnostics: A Comparative Review. J Am Stat Assoc 91(434):883–904
Craigmile PF, Guttorp P (2013) Can regional climate model reproduce observed extreme temperature? Statistica (Bologna) 73:103–122
Cressie N, Wikle CK (2011) Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data. Wiley, Amsterdam
Cubasch U, Wuebbles D, Chen D, Facchini MC, Frame D, Mahowald N, Winther J-G (2013) Introduction. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex v, Midgley PM (eds.) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and NY USA
Davison AC, Padoan SA, Ribatet M (2012) Statistical modeling of spatial extremes. Stat Sci 27(2):161–186. https://doi.org/10.1214/11-STS376
Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Holm EV, Isaksen L, Kallberg P, Kohler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette J-J, Park B-K, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut J-N, Vitart F (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137(656):553–597. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828
Deng Z, Xin Q, Liu J, Madras N, Wang X, Zhu H (2016) Trend in frequency of extreme precipitation events over Ontario from ensembles of multiple GCMs. Clim Dyn 46:2909–2921. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2740-9
Eidsvik J, Finley AO, Banerjee S, Rue H (2012) Approximate bayesian inference for large spatial datasets using predictive process models. Computationl Statistics and Data Analysis 56:1362–1380
Epstein ES (1985) Statistical Inference and Prediction in Climatology: A Bayesian Approach. Meteorological Monographs, vol. 20. American Meteorological Society, New York
Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PMe (2012) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and NY USA
Finley AO, Sang H, Banerjee S, Gelfand AE (2009) Improving the performance of predictive process modeling for large datasets. Computationl Statistics and Data Analysis 53:2873–2884
Finley AO, Banerjee S, Gelfand AE (2015) spBayes for Large Univariate and Multivariate Point-Referenced Spatio-Temporal Data Models. J Stat Softw 63(13):1–28
Fita L, Polcher J, Giannaros TM, Lorenz T, Milovac J, Sofiadis G, Katragkou E, Bastin S (2019) CORDEX-WRF v1.3: development of a module for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support the CORDEX community. Geoscientific Model Development 12(3):1029–1066. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1029-2019
Fuentes M, Guttorp P, Challenor P (2003) Statistical Assessment of Numerical Models. Int Stat Rev 71(2):201–222
Furrier EM, Katz RW, D, WM, Furrer R (2010) Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves, Climate Res 43:191–205
Gallego MC, Trigo RM, Vaquero JM, Brunet M, García JA, Sigró J, Valente MA (2011) Trends in frequency indices of daily precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula during the last century. J. Geophysical Reseach 116:02109. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014255
García-Cueto OR, Santillan-Soto N, Quintero-Muñoz M, Ojeda-Benitez S, Velázquez-Limon N (2013) Extreme temperature scenarios in mexicali, mexico under climate change conditions. Atmosfera 26:509–520
García-Herrera R, Díaz J, Trigo RM, Luterbacher J, Fischer EM (2010) A Review of the European Summer Heat Wave of 2003. Crit Rev Environ Sci Technol 40(4):267–306. https://doi.org/10.1080/10643380802238137
Gelfand AE, Zhu L, Bradley PC (2001) On the Change of Support Problem for Spatio-Temporal Data. Biostatistics 2(1):31–45
Gelman A, Meng X-L, Stern H (1996) Posterior predictive assessment of model fitness via realized discrepancies (with discussion). Stat Sin 6:733–807
Gelman A, Hwang J, Vehtari A (2014) Understanding predcitive information criteria for bayesian models. Stat Comput 24:997–1016. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-013-9416-2
Gilks WR, Richardson S, Spiegelhalter DJ (1996) Introducing Markov Chain Monte Carlo. In: Gilks, W.R., Richardson, S., Spiegelhalter, D.J. (eds.) Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice. Chapman & Hall
Grell GA, Freitas SR (2014) A scale and aerosol aware stochastic convective parameterization for weather and air quality modeling. Atmos Chem Phys 14:5233–5250. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5233-2014
Hawkins E, Sutton R (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull Am Meteor Soc 90:1095–1107. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1
Hirsch RM, Smith RA (1982) Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resour Res 18:107–121
Hong S-Y (2010) A new stable boundary-layer mixing scheme and its impact on the simulated East Asian summer monsoon. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc 136:(1481-1496). https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.665
Hong S-Y, Lim JOJ (2006) The WRF Single moment 6-Class Microphysics Scheme (WSM6). Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society 42(2):129–151. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3199.1
Hong S-Y, Noh Y, Dudhia J (2006) A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes. Mon Weather Rev 139(9):2318–2341. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3199.1
Iacono MJ, Delamere JS, Mlawer EJ, Shephard MW, Clough SA, Collins WD (2008) Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models. J Geophys Res 113:13103. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944
Jiang Z, Li W, Xu JJ, Li L (2015) Extreme precipittion indices over China in CMIP5 models. Part I: Model evalution. J. of Climate 28, 8603–8619. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0099.1
Jiménez PA, Dudhia J, González-Rouco JF, Navarro J, Montávez JP, García-Bustamente E (2012) A Revised Scheme for the WRF Surface Layer Formulation. Monthly Weather Review 140(3), 898–918. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00056.1
Kharin VV, Zwiers FW (2005) Estimating extremes in transient climate change simulations. J Clim 18:1156–1173
Lorenz P, Jacob D (2010) Validationof temperature trends in the ENSEMBLES regional climate model runs driven by ERA40. Climate Res 44:167–177. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00973
Lorenz R, Argüeso D, Donat MG, Pitman AJ, van den Hurk B, Berg A, Lawrence DM, Cheéruy F, Ducharne A, Hagemann S, Meier A, Milli PCD, Sereviratne SI (2016) Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 121:607–623. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024053
Lynch SM, Bruce W (2004) Bayesian posterior predictive checks for complex models. Sociological Methods & Research 32(3):301–335. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124103257303
Min E, Hazeleger W, van Oldenborgh GJ, Sterl A (2013) Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in north-western Europe in regional climate models. Environ Res Lett 8:014011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014011
Nogaj M, Yiou P, Parey S, Malek F, Naveau P (2006) Amplitude and frequency of temperature extremes over the North Atlantic region. Geophysical Research Letters 33(L10801). https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024251
Parey S, Malek F, Laurent C, Dacunha-Castelle D (2007) Trends and climate evolution: Statistical approach for very high temperatures in france. Clim Change 81:331–352. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9116-4
Peterson TC, Folland CK, Gruza G, Hogg WD, Mokssit A, Plummer N (2001) Report on the Activities of theWorking Group on Climate Change Detection and Related Rapporteurs. WCDMP-47, WMO-TD 1071, WMO
Peterson TC (2005) Climate change indices. Bulletin of the World Meteorological Organization 54:83–86
Randall DA, Wood RA, Bony S, Colman R, Fichefet T, Fyfe J, Kattsob V, Pitman A, Shukla J, Srinivasas J, Stouffer RJ, Sumi A, Taylor KE (2007) Climate Models and Their Evaluation. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
Renard B (2011) A Bayesian hierarchical approach to regional frequency analysis. Water Resour Res 47:11513. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR010089
Salleh NHM, Hasan H (2018) Generalized Pareto Distribution for Extreme Temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia . Science International(Lahore) 30:63–67
Sang H, Gelfand AE (2009) Hierarchical modeling for extreme values observed over space and time. Environ Ecol Stat 16:407–426. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-007-0078-0
Schliep EM, Cooley D, Sain SR, Hoeting J (2010) A comparison study of extreme precipitation from six different regional climate models via spatial hierarchical modeling. Extremes 13:219–239. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10687-009-0098-2
Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389
Serrano-Notivoli R, Beguería S, de Luis M (2019) Stead: a high-resolution daily gridded temperature dataset for spain. Earth System Science Data 11(3):1171–1188. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1171-2019
Sillmann J, Kharin V, Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Bronaugh D (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres 118: 1716–1733
Sillmann J, Kharin V, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Bronaugh D (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 2. Future climate projections. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres 118:1716–1733
Skamarock WC, Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Gill DO, Barker D, Duda MG, Huang X-Y, Wang W, Powers JG (2008) A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3. Technical Note NCAR/TN–475+STR, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. https://doi.org/10.5065/D68S4MVH
Tapiador FJ, Navarro A, Moreno R, Sánchez JL, García-Ortega E (2020) Regional climate models: 30 years of dynamical downscaling. Atmos Res 235:104785. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104785
Thompson V, Kennedy-Asser AT, Vosper E, Eunice Lo YT, Huntingford C, Andrews O, M, C, Hegerl GC, Mitchell D (2022) The 2021 western north america heat wave among the most extreme events ever recorded globaly. Science Advance 8(18). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abm6860
Tomassini L, Jacob D (2009) Spatial analysis of trends in extreme precipitation events in high-resolution climate model results and observations for germany. J. Geophysical Reseach 114:12113. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010652
Xu Z, Han Y, Yang Z (2019) Dynamical downscaling of regional climate: A review of methods and limitations. Sci China Earth Sci 62(2):365–375. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-018-9261-5
Zhang X, Alexander L, Hegerl GC, Jones P, Tank AK, Peterson TC, Trewin B, Zwiers FW (2010) Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. WIREs Clim Change 2(6):851–870. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147
Zollo AL, Rillo V, Bucchignani E, Montesarchio M, Mercogliano P (2016) Extreme temperature and precipitation events over italy: assesment of high-resolution simulations with COSMO-CLM and future scenarios. Int J Climatol 36:987–1004. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4401