A Bayesian approach for short-term transmission line thermal overload risk assessment
Tóm tắt
An on-line conductor thermal overload risk assessment method is presented in this paper. Bayesian time series models are used to model weather conditions along the transmission lines. An estimate of the thermal overload risk is obtained by Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. We predict the thermal overload risk for the next hour based on the current weather conditions and power system operating conditions. The predicted risk of thermal overload is useful for on-line decision making in a stressed operational environment.
Từ khóa
#Bayesian methods #Transmission lines #Risk management #Power system modeling #Power transmission lines #Weather forecasting #Power system simulation #Conductors #Thermal conductivity #Monte Carlo methodsTài liệu tham khảo
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