Change in ozone air pollution over Chicago associated with global climate change

American Geophysical Union (AGU) - Tập 113 Số D22 - 2008
Tracey Holloway1, Scott N. Spak1, Daniel W. Barker1, Matthew Bretl1, C. C. Moberg1, Katharine Hayhoe2,3, Jeff Van Dorn2, Donald J. Wuebbles4
1Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies University of Wisconsin—Madison Madison Wisconsin USA
2ATMOS Research and Consulting Lubbock Texas USA
3Department of Geosciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas, USA
4Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA

Tóm tắt

This study uses statistical downscaling to estimate the impact of future climate change on air quality. We employ historical observations of surface ozone (O3) over the Chicago area, large‐scale climate variables from the National Center for Environmental Protection (NCEP) reanalysis data, and climate projections from three GCMs (GFDL, PCM, and HadCM3), driven by two SRES emission scenarios (A1FI and B1 for GFDL and PCM; A2 and B1 for HadCM3). This approach calculates historic relationships between meteorology and O3, and considers how future meteorology would affect ground‐level O3 if these relationships remain constant. Ozone mixing ratios over Chicago are found to be most sensitive to surface temperature, horizontal surface winds, surface relative humidity, incoming solar radiation, and cloud cover. Considering the change in O3 due to global climate change alone, summertime (June, July, and August) mean mixing ratios over Chicago are projected to increase by 6–17 ppb by the end of the century, depending on assumptions about global economic growth and choice of GCM. Changes are greater under higher climate emissions scenarios and more sensitive climate models (e.g. 24 ppb for GFDL A1FI as compared to 2 ppb for PCM B1). However, this approach does not take into account changes in O3‐precursor emissions nor changes in local and lake‐effect meteorology, which could combine with climate change to either enhance or diminish the projected change in local mixing ratios. Statistical downscaling is performed with the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM v. 4.1, a publicly available scientific analysis and decision‐support tool.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.07.008

10.1029/2002JD002688

10.1007/s10584‐006‐9166‐7

10.1175/JCLI3832.1

10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.04.061

10.1007/s11270‐006‐9326‐4

10.1007/978-1-4612-2226-2_2

10.1175/JCLI3629.1

Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, 2003, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 2003 Special Studies Edition

Environmental Protection Agency EPA(2007a) Region 5: State Designations as of August 15 2007 available athttp://www.epa.gov/ozonedesignations/regions/region5desig.htm accessed 10/2/07.

Environmental Protection Agency EPA(2007b) Basic Information on Clean Air Interstate Rule available athttp://www.epa.gov/interstateairquality/charts_files/nonattain_maps.pdf accessed 7/11/07.

Environmental Protection Agency EPA(2007c) Proposed Revisions to Ozone National Standards issued June 20 2007 available athttp://epa.gov/air/ozonepollution/actions.html#jun07s accessed 7/11/07.

10.1007/s11270-005-9021-x

10.1029/2005JD006748

10.1029/2004JD004690

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC(2007a) Working Group II Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policymakers available athttp://www.ipcc.ch/SPM13apr07.pdf.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC(2007b) Working Group I The Physical Science Basis Fourth Assessment Report Chapter 10 available athttp://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html.

10.1029/98JD01224

10.1289/ehp.7163

10.1175/JCLI3848.1

10.1007/s11027‐007‐9137‐y

10.1029/2005GL022911

10.1029/2005JD006685

10.3354/cr028053

10.1175/JCLI3746.1

10.1029/2004GL021216

10.1029/2005JD005873

Nakicenovic N., 2000, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

10.1007/s003820050009

10.1016/S0377-2217(99)00069-7

10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.12.002

10.1029/93JD00159

10.1029/94JD02146

10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.06.011

10.1029/2005JD006712

10.1016/S0143-6228(98)00039-3

10.1029/2005JD006935

10.1038/416723a

10.1029/2007GL029455

10.1007/s003820000079

10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0799:SPDOTN>2.0.CO;2

10.1029/JD095iD02p01943

Wilby R. L.(2008) Constructing climate change scenarios of urban heat island intensity and air quality Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 35(5) 902–919.

10.1016/S1364-8152(01)00060-3

Wise E.(2006) Air Quality Extreme Events and Projected Trends for the Southwestern United States presentation at the Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop March 22 2006Tucson AZ available athttp://cals.arizona.edu/climate/CPASW2006/proc/day2/Climate-Health-AirQuality_1/Wise.pdf accessed 7/11/07.

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Tập 113 Số D22

Thông tin tác giả