Global temperature change

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America - Tập 103 Số 39 - Trang 14288-14293 - 2006
James E. Hansen1,2, Makiko Sato3,1, Reto Rüedy3,4, K. W. K. Lo3,4, David W. Lea5, Martin Medina-Elizade5
1Columbia University Earth Institute, and
2National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University Earth Institute, and Sigma Space Partners, Inc., 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA.
3*National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies,
4Sigma Space Partners, Inc., 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025; and
5Department of Earth Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106

Tóm tắt

Global surface temperature has increased ≈0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within ≈1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than ≈1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

J Hansen, M Sato, R Ruedy, L Nazarenko, A Lacis, GA Schmidt, G Russell, I Aleinov, M Bauer, N Bell, et al. J Geophys Res 110 (2005).

10.1073/pnas.97.4.1355

10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2170:TYCITS>2.0.CO;2

10.1029/2001JD000354

10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<0929:IGSSTA>2.0.CO;2

N Rayner, D Parker, E Horton, C Folland, L Alexander, D Rowell, E Kent, A Kaplan J Geophys Res 108 (2003).

10.1029/JD092iD11p13345

10.1029/1999JD900835

10.1256/wea.222.05

, eds JT Houghton, Y Ding, DJ Griggs, M Noguer, PJ van der Linden, X Dai, K Maskell, CA Johnson (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, 2001).

10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<0003:TEODTC>2.0.CO;2

10.1029/JD093iD08p09341

Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change (Govt Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1988).

M Crichton State of Fear (Harper Collins, New York, 2004).

The Role of Science in Environmental Policy-Making (Govt Printing Office, Washington, DC, 2005).

F Barnes Rebel in Chief: Inside the Bold and Controversial Presidency of George W. Bush (Crown Forum, New York, 2006).

J Hansen Am Geophys Union, U23D-01. (2005).

10.1080/02691720050199207

10.1126/science.288.5473.1997

10.1016/j.epsl.2004.12.003

10.1175/1520-0493(1969)097<0163:ATFTEP>2.3.CO;2

10.1007/s00382-004-0478-x

10.1038/nature02567

10.1175/JCLI3990.1

10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<2181:TMROTT>2.0.CO;2

G Vecchi, BJ Soden, AT Wittenberg, IM Held, A Leetmaa, MJ Harrison Nature, 2006).

10.1038/326483a0

10.1126/science.1115933

10.1038/nature02903

10.1126/science.289.5485.1719

10.1016/j.quascirev.2005.11.010

10.1016/0921-8181(94)90015-9

10.1130/0091-7613(2003)031<0067:SOMPAT>2.0.CO;2

10.1007/s10584-005-4135-0

W Hare Assessment of Knowledge on Impacts of Climate Change (German Advisory Council on Global Change, Berlin, 2003).

10.1038/nature01286

10.1038/nature02121

T Flannery The Weather Makers (Atlantic Monthly, New York, 2005).

MJ Benton When Life Nearly Died (Thames & Hudson, London, 2003).

10.1029/2005GL024093

10.1016/S0012-821X(02)00950-0

10.1126/science.1117368

D Archer Rev Geophys, in press. (2006).

10.1073/pnas.0406982101

10.1007/s10584-006-9102-x

10.1007/s10584-006-9101-y

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Tập 103 Số 39

14288-14293

Thông tin tác giả