Global temperature change
Tóm tắt
Global surface temperature has increased ≈0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within ≈1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than ≈1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species.
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
J Hansen, M Sato, R Ruedy, L Nazarenko, A Lacis, GA Schmidt, G Russell, I Aleinov, M Bauer, N Bell, et al. J Geophys Res 110 (2005).
N Rayner, D Parker, E Horton, C Folland, L Alexander, D Rowell, E Kent, A Kaplan J Geophys Res 108 (2003).
, eds JT Houghton, Y Ding, DJ Griggs, M Noguer, PJ van der Linden, X Dai, K Maskell, CA Johnson (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, 2001).
Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change (Govt Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1988).
M Crichton State of Fear (Harper Collins, New York, 2004).
The Role of Science in Environmental Policy-Making (Govt Printing Office, Washington, DC, 2005).
F Barnes Rebel in Chief: Inside the Bold and Controversial Presidency of George W. Bush (Crown Forum, New York, 2006).
J Hansen Am Geophys Union, U23D-01. (2005).
G Vecchi, BJ Soden, AT Wittenberg, IM Held, A Leetmaa, MJ Harrison Nature, 2006).
W Hare Assessment of Knowledge on Impacts of Climate Change (German Advisory Council on Global Change, Berlin, 2003).
T Flannery The Weather Makers (Atlantic Monthly, New York, 2005).
MJ Benton When Life Nearly Died (Thames & Hudson, London, 2003).
D Archer Rev Geophys, in press. (2006).