The service economy: U.S. trade coalitions in an era of deindustrialization
Tóm tắt
Services dominate the US economy and are increasingly traded across borders yet little is known about service firms’ trade policy objectives or lobbying activities. We fill this gap by examining services’ political engagement on trade policy as manifested through lobbying, public positions on trade, and reports issued by U.S. Industry Trade Advisory Committees. We document for the first time that service firms are highly active in the politics of US trade agreements and, compared to firms in goods-producing industries, are much less likely to disagree over trade. Instead, service firms are almost uniformly supportive of US trade agreements, which we explain by focusing on the stark US comparative advantage in services. Service firms are therefore a key constituency for deeper international economic cooperation, helping to explain the present era of global integration despite tough times for uncompetitive US manufacturing. We expect service producers to join the defense of global economic order against emergent populism.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Antras, P., & Helpman, E. (2004). Global sourcing. Journal of Political Economy, 112(3), 552–580.
Autor, D., Dorn, D., Hanson, G.H. (2013). The China syndrome: local labor market effects of import competition in the United States. American Economic Review, 103(6), 2121–2168.
Autor, D., Dorn, D., Hanson, G., Majlesi, K. (2016). Importing political polarization? The electoral consequences of rising trade exposure. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper.
Baccini, L., & Dür, A. (2012). The new regionalism and policy interdependency. British Journal of Political Science, 42, 57–79.
Baccini, L., & Urpelainen, J. (2014). Cutting the gordian knot of economic reform: how international institutions promote liberalization. New York: Oxford University Press.
Baccini, L., Dür, A, Haftel, Y. (2014). Innovation and imitation in international governance: the diffusion of trade agreement design. In Trade cooperation: the purpose, design and effects of preferential trade agreements. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Baccini, L., Pinto, P., Weymouth, S. (2017). The distributional consequences of preferential trade liberalization: Firm-level evidence. International Organization Forthcoming.
Balassa, B. (1965). Trade liberalisation and “revealed” comparative advantage. The Manchester School, 33(2), 99–123.
Bernard, A.B., Eaton, J., Jensen, J.B., Kortum, S. (2003). Plants and productivity in international trade. The American Economic Review, 93(4), 1268–1290.
Bernard, A.B., Jensen, J.B., Redding, S.J., Schott, P.K. (2012). The empirics of firm heterogeneity and international trade. Annu Rev Econ, 4(1), 283–313.
Blanchard, E.J., & Matschke, X. (2015). Us multinationals and preferential market access. Review of Economics and Statistics.
Bombardini, M. (2008). Firm heterogeneity and lobby participation. Journal of International Economics, 75(2), 329–348.
Bombardini, M., & Trebbi, F. (2012). Competition and political organization: together or alone in lobbying for trade policy? Journal of International Economics, 87(1), 18–26.
Borchert, I., Gootiiz, B., Mattoo, A. (2014). Policy barriers to international trade in services: evidence from a new database. The World Bank Economic Review, 28(1), 162–188.
Broz, J.L., & Werfel, S.H. (2014). Exchange rates and industry demands for trade protection. International Organization, 68(2), 393–416.
Cameron, M., & Tomlin, B.W. (2000). The making of NAFTA: how the deal was done. New York: Cornell University Press.
Chase, K.A. (2008). Moving hollywood abroad: divided labor markets and the new politics of trade in services. International Organization, 653–687.
Colantone, I., & Stanig, P. (2018a). Global competition and Brexit. American Political Science Review, 112(2), 201–218.
Colantone, I., & Stanig, P. (2018b). The trade origins of economic nationalism: import competition and voting behavior in Western Europe. American Journal of Political Science, 62(4), 936–953.
Conley, T.G., Hansen, C.B., Rossi, P.E. (2012). Plausibly exogenous. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(1), 260–272.
De Figueiredo, J.M., & Richter, B.K. (2014). Advancing the empirical research on lobbying. Annual Review of Political Science, 17, 163–185.
Dippel, C., Gold, R., Heblich, S., Pinto, R. (2017). Instrumental variables and causal mechanisms: unpacking the effect of trade on workers and voters. Tech. rep., National Bureau of Economic Research.
Eschenbach, F., & Hoekman, B. (2006). Services policy reform and economic growth in transition economies. Review of World Economics, 142(4), 746–764.
Feenstra, R.C., & Sasahara, A. (2017). The ‘China shock’, exports and US employment: a global input-output analysis. Working Paper 24022, National Bureau of Economic Research, https://doi.org/10.3386/w24022, http://www.nber.org/papers/w24022.
Feigenbaum, J.J., & Hall, A.B. (2015). How legislators respond to localized economic shocks: evidence from Chinese import competition. The Journal of Politics, 77(4), 1012–1030.
Francois, J., & Hoekman, B. (2010). Services trade and policy. Journal of Economic Literature, 48(3), 642–692.
Francois, J., & Woerz, J. (2008). Producer services, manufacturing linkages, and trade. Journal of Industry Competition and Trade, 8(3-4), 199–229.
Gervais, A., & Jensen, J.B. (2013). The tradability of services: geographic concentration and trade costs. Tech. rep., National Bureau of Economic Research.
Goldstein, R., & You, H.Y. (2017). Cities as lobbyists. American Journal of Political Science, 61(4), 864–876.
Gootiiz, B., & Mattoo, A. (2015). Regionalism in services: a study of Asean. The World Economy.
Hathaway, O.A. (1998). Positive feedback: the impact of trade liberalization on industry demands for protection. International Organization, 52(3), 576–612.
Heckman, J. (1979). Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrica, 47(1), 153–61.
Helpman, E., Melitz, M.J., Yeaple, S.R. (2004). Export versus fdi with heterogeneous firms. The American Economic Review, 94(1), 300–316.
Hoekman, B., & Mattoo, A. (2008). Services trade and growth. In Opening markets for trade in services: countries and sectors in bilateral and WTO negotiations (pp. 21–58). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Jensen, J.B. (2011). Global trade in services: fear, facts and offshoring. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Jensen, J.B., & Kletzer, L.G. (2010). Measuring tradable services and the task content of offshorable services jobs. In Katharine Abraham J.S., & Harper, M (Eds.) Labor in the new economy (pp. 309–335): University of Chicago Press.
Jensen, J.B., Quinn, D.P., Weymouth, S. (2015). The influence firm global supply chains and currency undervaluations on u.s. trade disputes. International Organization, 69(4), 913–947.
Jensen, J.B., Quinn, D.P., Weymouth, S. (2017). Winners and losers in international trade: the effects on us presidential voting. International Organization, 71(3), 423–458.
Kim, I.S. (2017). Political cleavages within industry: firm-level lobbying for trade liberalization. American Political Science Review, 111(1), 1–20.
Kim, IS. (2018). LobbyView: Firm-level Lobbying & Congressional Bills Database. Working Paper available from http://web.mit.edu/insong/www/pdf/lobbyview.pdf.
Kim, S.Y., & Manger, M.S. (2017). Hubs of governance: path dependence and higher-order effects of preferential trade agreement formation. Political Science Research and Methods, 5(3), 467–488.
Madeira, M.A. (2016). New trade, new politics: intra-industry trade and domestic political coalitions. Review of International Political Economy, 23(4), 677–711.
Manger, M.S. (2009). Investing in protection: the politics of preferential trading agreements between north and south. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Mansfield, E.D., & Milner, H.V. (1999). The new wave of regionalism. International Organization, 53(3), 589–627.
Margalit, Y. (2011). Costly jobs: trade-related layoffs, government compensation, and voting in us elections. American Political Science Review, 105(01), 166–188.
McGillivray, F. (2004). Privileging industry: the comparative politics of trade and industrial policy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Melitz, M. (2003). The impact of trade on intra-industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity. Econometrica, 71(6), 1695–1725.
Milner, H.V. (1987). Trading places: industries for free trade. World Politics, 40(3), 350–376.
Milner, H.V. (1988). Resisting protectionism: global industries and the politics of international trade. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Nordås, H.K., & Rouzet, D. (2015). The impact of services trade restrictiveness on trade flows.
Osgood, I. (2016). Differentiated products, divided industries: firm preferences over trade liberalization. Economics & Politics, 28(2), 161–180.
Osgood, I. (2017). Industrial fragmentation over trade: the role of variation in global engagement. International Studies Quarterly, 61(3), 642–659.
Osgood, I. (2018). Globalizing the supply chain: firm and industrial support for us trade agreements. International Organization, 72(2), 455–484.
Osgood, I., & Feng, Y. (2018). Intellectual property provisions and support for us trade agreements. The Review of International Organizations, 13(3), 421–455.
Osgood, I., Tingley, D., Bernauer, T., Kim, I.S., Milner, H., Spilker, G. (2017). The charmed life of superstar exporters: survey evidence on firms and trade policy. Journal of Politics, 79(1), 133–152.
Owen, E. (2016). Exposure to offshoring and the politics of trade liberalization: debates and votes on free trade agreements in the U.S. house of representatives, 2001–2006. International Studies Quarterly.
Owen, E., & Johnston, N.P. (2017). Occupation and the political economy of trade: job routineness, offshorability, and protectionist sentiment.
Plouffe, M. (2017). Firm heterogeneity and trade-policy stances evidence from a survey of Japanese producers. Business and Politics, 19(1), 1–40.
Quinn, D.P., & Toyoda, A.M. (2008). Does capital account liberalization lead to growth? Review of Financial Studies, 21(3), 1403–1449.
Roy, M. (2016). Charting the evolving landscape of services trade policies: recent patterns of protection and liberalization. In Sauve, P., & Roy, M. (Eds.) Research handbook on trade in services: Edward Elgar Publishing.
Roy, M., Marchetti, J., Lim, H. (2007). Services liberalization in the new generation of preferential trade agreements (ptas): how much further than the gats? World Trade Review, 6(2), 155–192.
Walter, S. (2010). Globalization and the welfare state: testing the microfoundations of the compensation hypothesis. International Studies Quarterly, 54(2), 403–426.
Walter, S. (2017). Globalization and the demand-side of politics: how globalization shapes labor market risk perceptions and policy preferences. Political Science Research and Methods, 5(1), 55–80.
Weymouth, S. (2017). Service firms in the politics of US trade policy. International Studies Quarterly, 61(4), 935–947.
Wilkerson, J., Smith, D., Stramp, N. (2015). Tracing the flow of policy ideas in legislatures: a text reuse approach. American Journal of Political Science, 59(4), 943–56.
You, H.Y. (2017). Ex post lobbying. The Journal of Politics, 79(4), 1162–1176.