Global semi-arid climate change over last 60 years

Allen R, Pereira L, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration—guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. FAO, Rome Alexander M (2013) Extratropical air–sea interaction, sea surface temperature variability, and the Pacific decadal oscillation. In: Sun D, Bryan F (eds) Climate dynamics: why does climate vary? American Geophysical Union, Washington, pp 123–148 Bader J, Latif M (2003) The impact of decadal-scale Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on Sahelian rainfall and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 30(22):2169. doi:10.1029/2003GL018426 Bounoua L, Safia A, Masek J, Peters-Lidard C, Imhoff M (2009) Impact of urban growth on surface climate: a case study in Oran, Algeria. J Appl Meteorol 48(2):217–231 Charney J (1975) Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel. Q J R Meteorol Soc 101(428):193–202 Chen M, Xie P, Janowiak JE, Arkin PA (2002) Global land precipitation: a 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations. J Hydrometeorol 3:249–266 Chen F, Chen J, Holmes J, Boomer I, Austin P, Gates J, Wang N, Brooks S, Zhang J (2010) Moisture changes over the last millennium in arid central Asia: a review, synthesis and comparison with monsoon region. Quat Sci Rev 29(7–8):1055–1068 Chou C, Neelin J, Chen C, Tu J (2009) Evaluating the “rich-get-richer” mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming. J Clim 22(8):1982–2004 Compo GP, Whitaker JS, Sardeshmukh PD, Matsui N, Allan RJ, Yin X, Gleason BE, Vose RS, Rutledge G, Bessemoulin P, Brönnimann S, Brunet M, Crouthamel RI, Grant AN, Groisman PY, Jones PD, Kruk MC, Kruger AC, Marshall GJ, Maugeri M, Mok HY, Nordli Ø, Ross TF, Trigo RM, Wang XL, Woodruff SD, Worley SJ (2011) The twentieth century reanalysis project. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 137(654):1–28. doi:10.1002/qj.776 Cook BI, Miller RL, Seager R (2009) Amplification of the North American “Dust Bowl” drought through human-induced land degradation. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(13):4997–5001 Dai A (2013a) Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nat Clim Change 3(1):52–58 Dai A (2013b) The influence of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation on US precipitation during 1923–2010. Clim Dyn 41(3–4):633–646 Dai A, Lamb PJ, Trenberth KE, Hulme M, Jones PD, Xie P (2004) The recent Sahel drought is real. Int J Climatol 24(11):1323–1331 Donohue RJ, McVicar TR, Roderick ML (2010) Assessing the ability of potential evaporation formulations to capture the dynamics in evaporative demand within a changing climate. J Hydrol 386(1):186–197 Dregne H (2002) Land degradation in the drylands. Arid Land Res Manag 16(2):99–132 Evans J, Geerken R (2004) Discrimination between climate and human-induced dryland degradation. J Arid Environ 57(4):535–554 Fan Y, Van den Dool H (2008) A global monthly land surface air temperature analysis for 1948–present. J Geophys Res Atmos (1984–2012) 113(D1):D01103. doi:10.1029/2007JD008470 Feddema J (2005) A revised Thornthwaite-type global climate classification. Phys Geogr 26(6):442–466 Feng S, Fu Q (2013) Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate. Atmos Chem Phys 13(19):10081–10094 Feng S, Hu Q, Oglesby R (2011) Influence of Atlantic sea surface temperatures on persistent drought in North America. Clim Dyn 37:569–586 Feng S, Hu Q, Huang W, Ho C, Li R, Tang Z (2014) Projected climate regime shift under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario CMIP5 simulations. Global Planet Change 112:41–52 Fricke K, Sterr T, Bubenzer O, Eitel B (2009) The oasis as a megacity: Urumqi’s fast urbanisation in a semiarid environment. Erde 140(4):449–463 Gao Q, Kang M, Xu H, Jiang Y, Yang J (2010) Optimization of land use structure and spatial pattern for the semi-arid loess hilly–gully region in China. Catena 81(3):196–202 Garreaud R (2007) Precipitation and circulation covariability in the extratropics. J Clim 20(18):4789–4797. doi:10.1175/JCLI4257.1 Garreaud R, Lopez P, Minvielle M, Rojas M (2013) Large-scale control on the Patagonian climate. J Clim 26(1):215–230. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00001.1 Geiger R (1954) Klassifikation der Klimate nach W. Köppen. In: Landolt-Börnstein–Zahlenwerte und Funktionen aus Physik, Chemie, Astronomie, Geophysik und Technik, vol 3. Springer, Berlin, pp 603–607 Georgescu M, Miguez-Macho G, Steyaert L, Weaver C (2009) Climatic effects of 30 years of landscape change over the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, region: 1. Surface energy budget changes. J Geophys Res Atmos (1984–2012) 114(D5):D05110. doi:10.1029/2008JD010745 Giannini A, Saravanan R, Chang P (2003) Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science 302(5647):1027–1030 Greve P, Orlowsky B, Mueller B, Sheffield J, Reichstein M, Seneviratne SI (2014) Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land. Nat Geosci 7(10):716–721 Guan X, Huang J, Guo N, Bi J, Wang G (2009) Variability of soil moisture and its relationship with surface albedo and soil thermal parameters over the Loess Plateau. Adv Atmos Sci 26(4):692–700. doi:10.1007/s00376-009-8198-0 Hagos SM, Cook KH (2008) Ocean warming and late-twentieth-century Sahel drought and recovery. J Clim 21(15):3797–3814 Hamon WR (1963) Computation of direct runoff amounts from storm rainfall. Int Assoc Sci Hydrol Pub 63:52–62 Hargreaves G, Samani Z (1985) Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature. Appl Eng Agric 1:96–99 He Y, Huang J, Ji M (2014) Impact of land–sea thermal contrast on interdecadal variation in circulation and blocking. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-00014-02103-y Held IM, Soden BJ (2006) Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J Clim 19(21):5686–5699 Hobbins M, Wood A, Struebel D, Werner K (2012) What drives the variability of evaporative demand across the conterminous United States? J Hydrometeorol 13:1195–1214 Hoerling M, Hurrell J, Eischeid J, Phillips A (2006) Detection and attribution of twentieth-century northern and southern African rainfall change. J Clim 19:3989–4008 Huang J, Higuchi K, Shabbar A (1998) The relationship between the North Atlantic oscillation and El Niño-Southern oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 25:2707–2710 Huang H, Seager R, Kushnir Y (2005) The 1976/77 transition in precipitation over the Americas and the influence of tropical sea surface temperature. Clim Dyn 24(7–8):721–740 Huang J, Zhang W, Zuo J, Bi J, Shi J, Wang X, Chang Z, Huang Z, Yang S, Zhang B, Wang G, Feng G, Yuan J, Zhang L, Zuo H, Wang S, Fu C, Chou J (2008) An overview of the semi-arid climate and environment research observatory over the Loess Plateau. Adv Atmos Sci 25(6):1–16 Huang J, Minnis P, Yan H, Yi Y, Chen B, Zhang L, Ayers J (2010) Dust aerosol effect on semi-arid climate over Northwest China detected from A-Train satellite measurements. Atmos Chem Phys 10(14):6863–6872 Huang J, Fu Q, Zhang W, Wang X, Zhang R, Ye H, Warren S (2011) Dust and black carbon in seasonal snow across northern China. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92(2):175–181. doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3064.1 Huang J, Guan X, Ji F (2012) Enhanced cold-season warming in semi-arid regions. Atmos Chem Phys 12(12):5391–5398 Huang J, Wang T, Wang W, Li Z, Yan H (2014) Climate effects of dust aerosols over East Asian arid and semiarid regions. J Geophys Res Atmos 119:11398–11416. doi:10.1002/2014JD021796 Hulme M, Doherty R, Ngara T, New M, Lister D (2001) African climate change: 1900–2100. Clim Res 17(2):145–168 IOCI (2002) Climate variability and change in southwest Western Australia. Technical report, Indian Ocean Climate Initiative Panel, Perth, p 34 IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor M, Miller H (eds) Contribution of Working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Ji F, Wu Z, Huang J, Eric P (2014) Evolution of land surface air temperature trend. Nat Clim Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate2223 Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo K, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471 Kane R (2009) Periodicities, ENSO effects and trends of some South African rainfall series—an update. S Afr J Sci 105(5–6):199–207 Köppen W (1884): Die Wärmezonen der Erde, nach der Dauer der heissen, gemässigten und kalten Zeit und nach der Wirkung der Wärme auf die organische Welt betrachtet (The thermal zones of the earth according to the duration of hot, moderate and cold periods and to the impact of heat on the organic world). –Meteorol. Z. 1, 215–226. (trans, ed: Volken E, Brönnimann S. Meteorol. Z. 20 (2011), 351–360) Köppen W (1936) Das geographische System der Klimate. In: Koppen W, Geiger R (eds) Handbuch der Klimatologie, vol 1, GebrBorntrager, Berlin, pp 1–44 Kottek M, Grieser J, Beck C, Rudolf B, Rubel F (2006) World map of the Koppen–Geiger climate classification updated. Meteorol Z 15(3):259–263 Kushnir Y, Robinson W, Bladé I, Hall N, Peng S, Sutton R (2002) Atmospheric GCM response to extratropical SST anomalies: synthesis and evaluation. J Clim 15:2233–2256 Kushnir Y, Seager R, Ting M, Naik N, Nakamura J (2010) Mechanisms of tropical Atlantic SST influence on North American precipitation variability. J Clim 23:5610–5628 Legates DR, Willmott CJ (1990a) Mean seasonal and spatial variability in gauge-corrected, global precipitation. Int J Climatol 10(2):111–127 Legates DR, Willmott CJ (1990b) Mean seasonal and spatial variability in global surface air temperature. Theor Appl Climatol 41(1–2):11–21 Li J, Zeng Q (2002) A unified monsoon index. Geophys Res Lett 29(8):1274. doi:10.1029/2001GL013874 Li H, Dai A, Zhou T, Lu J (2010) Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950–2000. Clim Dyn 34(4):501–514 Li A, Wu J, Huang J (2012) Distinguishing between human-induced and climate-driven vegetation changes: a critical application of RESTREND in inner Mongolia. Landsc Ecol 27(7):969–982 Liu C, Xia J (2004) Water problems and hydrological research in the Yellow River and the Huai and Hai River basins of China. Hydrol Process 18(12):2197–2210 Liu H, Yin Y, Tian Y, Ren J, Wang H (2008) Climatic and anthropogenic controls of topsoil features in the semi-arid East Asian steppe. Geophys Res Lett 35(4):L04401. doi:10.1029/2007GL032980 Lu J (2009) The dynamics of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature forcing of Sahel drought. Clim Dyn 33(4):445–460 Lu J, Delworth TL (2005) Oceanic forcing of the late 20th century Sahel drought. Geophys Res Lett 32(22):L22706. doi:10.1029/2005GL023316 Mabbutt JA (1979) Desert landforms. MIT, Cambridge, p 340 Makkink G (1957) Testing the Penman formula by means of Lysimeters. J Inst of Water Eng 11:277–288 Marshall G (2003) Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from Observations and Reanalyses. J Clim 16:4134–4143 Mason S (2001) El Niño, climate change, and Southern African climate. Environmetrics 12:327–345 McAfee S (2013) Methodological differences in projected potential evapotranspiration. Clim Change 120:915–930 McCabe GJ, Betancourt JL, Gray ST, Palecki MA, Hidalgo HG (2008) Associations of multi-decadal sea-surface temperature variability with US drought. Quat Int 188(1):31–40 McVicar TR, Roderick ML, Donohue RJ, Li LT, Van Niel TG, Thomas A, Grieser J, Jhajharia D, Himri Y, Mahowald NM (2012) Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial near-surface wind speeds: implications for evaporation. J Hydrol 416:182–205 Méndez M, Magaña V (2010) Regional aspects of prolonged meteorological droughts over Mexico and Central America. J Clim 23(5):1175–1188 Middleton N, Thomas D (1997) World atlas of desertification, 2nd edn. Arnold, a member of the Hodder Headline Group, London Misra V (2003) The influence of Pacific SST variability on the precipitation over southern Africa. J Clim 16:2408–2418 Mitchell T, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25(6):693–712 Mo K, Schemm J, Yoo S (2009) Influence of ENSO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on drought over the United States. J Clima 22:5962–5982 Monteith J (1981) Evaporation and surface temperature. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 107(451):1–27 Mulitza S, Heslop D, Pittauerova D, Fischer HW, Meyer I, Stuut J-B, Zabel M, Mollenhauer G, Collins JA, Kuhnert H (2010) Increase in African dust flux at the onset of commercial agriculture in the Sahel region. Nature 466(7303):226–228 Nicholson S (2000) Land surface processes and Sahel climate. Rev Geophys 38(1):117–139 Nicholson S (2013) The West African Sahel: a review of recent studies on the rainfall regime and its interannual variability. ISRN Meteorol 2013:1–32 Nicholson S, Kim J (1997) The relationship of the El Niño Southern oscillation to African rainfall. Int J Climatol 17:117–135 Omuto C, Vargas R, Alim M, Paron P (2010) Mixed-effects modelling of time series NDVI–rainfall relationship for detecting human-induced loss of vegetation cover in drylands. J Arid Environ 74(11):1552–1563 Otterman J (1974) Baring high-albedo soils by overgrazing—a hypothesized desertification mechanism. Science 186(4163):531–533 Parker D, Folland C, Scaife A, Knight J, Colman A, Baines P, Dong B (2007) Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background. J Geophys Res. doi:10.1029/2007jd008411 Paruelo JM, Beltrán Adriana, Jobbágy Esteban, Sala Osvaldo E, Golluscio RA (1998) The climate of Patagonia: general patterns and controls on biotic processes. Ecol Austral 8:85–101 Peel M, Finlayson B, McMahon T (2007) Updated world map of the Köppen–Geiger climate classification. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11:1633–1644 Penman HL (1948) Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass. Proc R Soc Lond A 193(1032):120–145 Priestley C, Taylor R (1972) On the assessment of surface heat flux and evaporation using large scale parameters. Mon Weath Rev 100:81–92 Randel W, Wu F (1999) Cooling of the Arctic and Antarctic polar stratospheres due to ozone depletion. J Clim 12:1467–1479 Reason C, Rouault C (2002) ENSO-like decadal variability and South African rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 29:1638. doi:10.1029/2002GL014663 Richard Y, Trzaska S, Roucou P, Rouault M (2000) Modification of the Southern African rainfall variability/El Niño southern oscillation relationship. Clim Dyn 16:883–895 Rodell M, Houser P, Jambor U, Gottschalck J, Mitchell K, Meng C, Arsenault K, Cosgrove B, Radakovich J, Bosilovich M (2004) The global land data assimilation system. B Am Meteorol Soc 85(3):381–394 Rotenberg E, Yakir D (2010) Contribution of semi-arid forests to the climate system. Science 327(5964):451–454 Safriel U, Adeel Z (2005) Dryland systems. In: Hassan R, Scholes R, Ash N (eds) Ecosystems and human well-being, current state and trends, vol 1. Island Press, Washington, pp 625–658 Scanlon BR, Keese KE, Flint AL, Flint LE, Gaye CB, Edmunds WM, Simmers I (2006) Global synthesis of groundwater recharge in semiarid and arid regions. Hydrol Process 20(15):3335–3370 Schiemann R, Luthi D, Vidale P, Schar C (2008) The precipitation climate of Central Asia—intercomparison of observational and numerical data sources in a remote semiarid region. Int J Climatol 28:295–314 Schwinning S, Sala OE, Loik ME, Ehleringer JR (2004) Thresholds, memory, and seasonality: understanding pulse dynamics in arid/semi-arid ecosystems. Oecologia 141(2):191–193 Seager R, Naik N, Vecchi GA (2010) Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J Clim 23(17):4651–4668 Shaw S, Riha S (2011) Assessing temperature-based PET equations under a changing climate in temperate, deciduous forests. Hydrol Process 25:1466–1478 Sheffield J, Goteti G, Wood E (2006) Development of a 50-year high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcings for land surface modeling. J Clim 19(13):3088–3111 Sheffield J, Wood EF, Roderick ML (2012) Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature 491(7424):435–438 Shi G, Cai W, Cowan T, Ribbe J, Rotstayn L, Dix M (2008) Variability and trend over the northwest Western Australian rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling. J Clim 21:2938–2959 Su J, Huang J, Fu Q, Minnis P, Ge J, Bi J (2008) Estimation of Asian dust aerosol effect on cloud radiation forcing using Fu–Liou radiative model and CERES measurements. Atmos Chem Phys 8(10):2763–2771 Taschetto A, England M (2008) An analysis of late 20th century trends in Australian rainfall. Int J Climatol 29:791–807 Thomas D (2011) Arid zone geomorphology: process, form and change in drylands, 3rd edn. Wiley-Blackwell, xxiv Thompson D, Wallace JM (2000) Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: month-to-month variability. J Clim 13:1000–1016 Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev 38(1):55–94 Ting M, Kushnir Y, Seager R, Li C (2009) Forced and internal twentieth-century SST trends in the North Atlantic. J Clim 22(6):1469–1481 Trenberth KE, Stepaniak DP, Caron JM (2000) The global monsoon as seen through the divergent atmospheric circulation. J Climate 13(22):3969–3993 Trewartha G, Horn L (1980) An introduction to climate, 5th edn. McGraw-Hill, New York, p 437 Turc L (1961) Evaluation de besoins en eau d’irrigation, ET potentielle. Ann Agron 12:13–49 Ueda H, Iwai A, Kuwako K, Hori M (2006) Impact of anthropogenic forcing on the Asian summer monsoon as simulated by eight GCMs. Geophys Res Lett 33:L06703. doi:10.1029/2005GL025336 Wang B, Ding Q (2006) Changes in global monsoon precipitation over the past 56 years. Geophys Res Lett 33(6):L06711. doi:10.1029/2005GL025347 Wang K, Dickinson R (2012) A review of global terrestrial evapotranspiration: observation, modeling, climatology, and climatic variability. Rev Geophys 50:RG2005. doi:10.1029/2011RG000373 Wang G, Huang J, Guo W, Zuo J, Wang J, Bi J, Huang Z, Shi J (2010) Observation analysis of land–atmosphere interactions over the Loess Plateau of northwest China. J Geophys Res 115:D00K17. doi:10.1029/2009JD013372 Wang X, Doherty S, Huang J (2013) Black carbon and other light-absorbing impurities in snow across Northern China. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:1471–1492 Wang S, Huang J, He Y, Guan Y (2014) Combined effects of the Pacific decadal oscillation and El Nino-southern oscillation on global land dry–wet changes. Sci Rep 4:6651. doi:10.1038/srep06651 Wardle R, Smith I (2004) Modeled response of the Australian monsoon to changes in land surface temperatures. Geophys Res Lett 31:L16205. doi:10.1029/2004GL020157 Wessels K, Prince S, Malherbe J, Small J, Frost P, VanZyl D (2007) Can human-induced land degradation be distinguished from the effects of rainfall variability? A case study in South Africa. J Arid Environ 68(2):271–297 Xu M, Chang C, Fu C, Qi Y, Robock A, Robinson D, Zhang H (2006) Steady decline of east Asian monsoon winds, 1969–2000: evidence from direct ground measurements of wind speed. J Geophys Res Atmos. doi:10.1029/2006JD007337 Xu Y, B-s Tang, Chan EH (2011) State-led land requisition and transformation of rural villages in transitional China. Habitat International 35(1):57–65 Xue Y (1996) The impact of desertification in the Mongolian and the Inner Mongolian grassland on the regional climate. J Clim 9(9):2173–2189 Xue Y, Shukla J (1993) The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate. Part 1: desertification. J Clim 6(12):2232–2245 Zeng N, Neelin JD, Lau K-M, Tucker CJ (1999) Enhancement of interdecadal climate variability in the Sahel by vegetation interaction. Science 286(5444):1537–1540 Zhou T, Gong D, Li J, Li B (2009) Detecting and understanding the multi-decadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon-recent progress and state of affairs. Meteorol Z 18(4):455–467 Zhu C, Wang B, Qian W, Zhang B (2012) Recent weakening of northern East Asian summer monsoon: a possible response to global warming. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2012GL051155 Zuo Z, Yang S, Kumar A, Zhang R, Xue Y, Jha B (2012) Role of thermal condition over Asia in the weakening Asian summer monsoon under global warming background. J Clim 25(9):3431–3436