Comparing palaeolimnological and instrumental evidence of climate change for remote mountain lakes over the last 200 years
Tóm tắt
This paper compares the palaeolimnological evidence for climate change over the last 200 years with instrumental climate data for the same period at seven European remote mountain lakes. The sites are Øvre Neådalsvatn (Norway), Saanajärvi (Finland), Gossenköllesee (Austria), Hagelseewli (Switzerland), Jezero v Ledvici (Slovenia), Estany Redó (Spain, Pyrenees), and Nižné Terianske Pleso (Slovakia). We used multiple regression analysis to transfer homogenised lowland air temperature records to each of the sites, and these reconstructions were validated using data from on-site automatic weather stations. These data showed that mean annual temperature has varied over the last 200 years at each site by between 1 and 2 °C, typical of the high frequency variability found throughout the Holocene, and appropriate, therefore, to test the sensitivity of the various proxy methods used. Sediment cores from each site were radiometrically dated using 210Pb, 137Cs and 241Am and analysed for loss-on-ignition, C, N, S, pigments, diatoms, chrysophytes, Cladocera and chironomids. Comparisons between the proxy data and the instrumental data were based on linear regression analysis with the proxy data treated as response variables and the instrumental data (after smoothing using LOESS regressions) as predictor variables. The results showed few clear or consistent patterns with generally low or very low r2 values. Highest values were found when the data were compared after smoothing using a broad span, indicating that some of the proxy data were capturing climate variability but only at a relatively coarse time resolution. Probable reasons for the weak performance of the methods used include inaccurate dating, especially for earlier time periods, the influence of confounding forcing factors at some sites e.g., air pollution, earthquakes, and the insensitivity of some methods to low amplitude climate forcing. Nevertheless, there were trends in some proxy records at a number of sites that had a relatively unambiguous correspondence with the instrumental climate records. These included organic matter and associated variables (C and N) and planktonic diatom assemblages at the majority of sites and chrysophytes and chironomids at a few sites. Overall for longer term studies of the Holocene, these results indicate the need to be cautious in the interpretation of proxy records, the importance of proxy method validation, the continuing need to use reinforcing multi-proxy approaches, and the need for careful site and method selection.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Agustí-Panareda, A. & R. Thompson, 2002. Reconstructing air temperature at eleven remote alpine and arctic lakes in Europe from 1781 to 1997 AD. J. Paleolim. 28: 7-23.
Agustí-Panareda, A., R. Thompson & D. M. Livingstone, 2000. Reconstructing temperature variations at high elevation sites in Europe during the instrumental period. Verh. Int. Verein. Limnol. 27: 479-483.
Allan, J. D. & C. E. Goulden, 1980. Some aspects of reproductive variation among freshwater zooplankton. In Kerfoot, C. W. (ed.), Evolution and Ecology of Zooplankton Communities. University Press of New England, 388-410.
Allan, J. D., 1976. Life history patterns in zooplankton. Am. Nat. 110: 165-180.
Anderson, N. J., B. Odgaard, U. Segerström & I. Renberg, 1996. Climate-lake interactions recorded in varved sediments from a Swedish boreal forest lake. Global Change Biol. 2: 399-405.
Appleby, P. G., 1998. Dating recent sediments by 210Pb: problems and solutions. Proc. 2nd NKS/EKO-1 Seminar, Helsinki, 2-4 April 1997, STUK, Helsinki, pp. 7-24.
Appleby P. G., 2000. Radiometric dating of sediment records in European mountain lakes. J. Limnol. 59(suppl 1): 1-14.
Battarbee, R. W., 2000. Palaeolimnological approaches to climate change, with special regard to biological record. Quat. Sci. Rev. 19: 107-124.
Battarbee, R. W., N. G. Cameron, P. Golding, S. J. Brooks, R. Switsur, D. Harkness, P. G. Appleby, F. Oldfield, R. Thompson, D. T. Monteith & A. McGovern, 2001. Evidence for Holocene climate variability from the sediments of a Scottish remote mountain lake. J. Quat. Sci. 16: 339-346.
Battarbee, R. W., S. T. Patrick, B. Wathne, R. Psenner R. & R. Mosello, 2001 Measuring and modelling the dynamic response of remote mountain lake ecosystems to environmental change (the MOLAR project). Verh. Int. Verein. Limnol. (in press).
Bindler, R., I. Renberg, P. G. Appleby, N. J. Anderson & N. L. Rose, 2001. Mercury accumulation rates and spatial patterns in lake sediments from West Greenland: a coast to ice margin transect. Environ. Sci. Technol. 35: 1736-1741.
Bradbury, J., 1988. A climatic-limnological model of diatom succession for paleolimnological interpretation of varved sediments at Elk Lake. J. Paleolim. 1: 115-131.
Brancelj, A., M. Šiško, G. Muri, P. G. Appleby, A. Lami, E. Shilland, N. L. Rose, C. Kamenik, S. J. Brooks & J. A. Dearing, 2002. Lake Jezero v Ledvici (N.W. Slovenia)-changes in sediment records over the last two centuries. J. Paleolim. 28: 47-58.
Brooks, S. J. & H. J. B. Birks, 2000a. Chironomid-inferred Lateglacial air temperatures at Whitrig Bog, southeast Scotland. J. Quat. Sci. 15: 759-784.
Brooks, S. J. & H. J. B. Birks, 2000b. Chironomid-inferred lateglacial and early-Holocene mean July air temperatures for Kråkenes lake, western Norway. J. Paleolim. 23: 77-89.
Brooks, S. J. & H. J. B. Birks, 2001. Chironomid-inferred air temperatures from Lateglacial and Holocene sites in north-west Europe: progress and problems. Quat. Sci. Rev. 20: 1723-1741.
Brundin, L., 1949. Die bodenfaunistischen Seetypen und ihre Anwendbarkeit auf die Südhalbkugel. Zugleich eine Theorie der produktionsbiologischen Bedeutung der glazialen Erosion. Report of the Institute of Freshwater Research, Drottningholm 37: 186-235.
Catalan, J., M. Ventura, A. Brancelj, I. Granados, H. Thies, U. Nickus, A. Korhola, A. F. Lotter, A. Barbieri, E. Stuchlik, L. Lien, P. Bitušík, T. Buchaca, L. Camarero, G. H. Goudsmit, J. Kopáček, G. Lemcke, D. M. Livingstone, B. Müller, M. Rautio, M. Šiško, S. Sorvari, F. Šporka, O. Strunecký & M. Toro. 2002. Seasonal ecosystem variability in remote mountain lakes: implications for detecting climatic signals in sediment records. J. Paleolim. 28: 25-46.
Catalan, J., S. Pla, M. Rieradevall, M. Felip, M. Ventura, T. Buchaca, L. Camarero, A. Brancelj, P. G. Appleby, A. Lami, J. A. Grytnes, A. Agustí-Panareda & R. Thompson, 2002. Lake Redó ecosystem response to an increasing warming in the Pyrenees during the twentieth century. J. Paleolim. 28: 129-145.
Cleveland, W. S., E. Grosse & W. M. Shyu, 1993. Local regression models. In Chambers, J. M. & T. J. Hastie (eds), Statistical Models in S. Chapman & Hall, London, 309-376.
Davis, A. J., L. S. Jenkinson, J. H. Lawton, B. Shorrocks & S. Wood, 1998. Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature 391: 783-786.
DeCosta, J., 1964. Latitudinal distribution of chydorid Cladocera in the Mississippi Valley, based on their remains in surficial lake sediments. Invest. Indiana Lakes & Streams 6: 65-101.
Duff, K. E., B. A. Zeeb & J. P. Smol, 1995. Atlas of the Chrysophycean Cysts. Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Duigan, C. A. & H. H. Birks, 2000. The late-glacial and early-Holocene palaeoecology of cladoceran microfossil assemblages at Kråkenes, western Norway, with quantitative reconstruction of temperature changes. J. Paleolim. 23: 67-76.
Frey, D. G. & B. J. Hann, 1985. Growth in cladocera. In Wenner (ed.). Factors in Adult Growth. Crustacean Issues 3. Balkema, Rotterdam.
Gaedke, U., D. Ollinger, P. Kirner & E. Bäuerle, 1998. The influence of weather conditions on the lake seasonal plankton development in a large and deep lake (L. Constance) III. The impact of water column stability on spring algal development. In George, D. et al. (eds), Management of Lakes and Reservoirs during Global Climate Change. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands, 71-84.
George, D. & G. Harris, 1985. The effect of climate on long-term changes in the crustacean biomass of Lake Windermere, UK. Nature 316: 536-539.
Gillooly, J. F. & S. I. Dodson, 2000. Latitudinal patterns in the size distribution and seasonal dynamics of new world, freshwater cladocerans. Limnol. Oceanogr. 45: 22-30.
Goss, B. L. & D. L. Bunting, 1983. Daphnia development and reproduction: Responses to temperature. J. Therm. Biol. 8: 375-380.
Grimalt, J. O., P. Fernandez, L. Berdie, R. M. Vilanova, J. Catalan, R. Psenner, R. Hofer, P. G. Appleby, B. O. Rosseland, L. Lien, J. C. Massabuau & R. W. Battarbee, 2001. Selective trapping of organochlorine compounds in mountain lakes of temperate areas. Environ. Sci. Technol. 35: 2690-2697.
Harmsworth, R. V., 1968. The developmental history of Blelham Tarn (England) as shown by animal microfossils, with special reference to the Cladocera. Ecol. Monogr. 38: 223-241.
Hartig, J. H. & D. G. Wallen, 1986. The influence of light and temperature on growth and photosynthesis of Fragilaria crotonensis Kitton. J. Freshwat. Ecol. 3: 371-382.
Kamenik, C., K. A. Koining, R. Schmidt, P. G. Appleby, J. A. Dearing, A. Lami, R. Thompson & R. Psenner. 2000. 800 years of environmental changes in a high alpine lake (Gossenköllesee, tyrol) inferred from sediment records. J. Limnol. 59(suppl. 1): 43-52.
Koinig, K. A., C. Kamenik, R. Schmidt, A. Agustí-Panareda, P. G. Appleby, A. Lami, M. Prazakova, N. L. Rose, Ø. A. Schnell, R. Tessadri, R. Thompson & R. Psenner, 2002. Environmental changes in an alpine lake (Gossenköllesee, Austria) over the last two centuries-the influence of air temperature on biological parameters. J. Paleolim. 28: 147-160.
Korhola, A. & M. Rautio, 2001. Cladocera and other small branchiopods. In Smol, J. P., H. J. B. Birks & W. M. Last (eds), Tracking Environmental Change Using Lake Sediments. Volume 4: Zoological Indicators. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 5-41.
Korhola, A., 1999. Distribution patterns of Cladocera in subarctic Fennoscandian lakes and their potential in environmental reconstruction. Ecography 22: 357-373.
Korhola, A., J. Weckström, L. Holmström & P. Erästö, 2000. A quantitative Holocene climatic record from diatoms in northern Fennoscandia. Quat. Res. 54: 284-294.
Korhola, A., H. J. B. Birks, H. Olander & T. Blom, 2001. Chironomids, temperature, and numerical models: A reply to Seppälä. The Holocene 11: 613-620.
Korhola, A., S. Sorvari, M. Rautio, P. G. Appleby, J. A. Dearing, Y. Hu, N. Rose, A. Lami & N. G. Cameron, 2002. A multi-proxy analysis of climate impacts on recent development of subarctic Lake Saanajärvi in Finnish Lapland. J. Palaeolim. 28: 59-77.
Lami, A., P. Guilizzoni & J. Masaferro, 1991. Record of fossil pigments in a Alpine lake (L. Tovel, N. Italy). Mem. Ist. Ital. Idrobiol., 49: 117-126.
Lami, A. P. Guilizzoni & A. Marchetto, 2000. High resolution analysis of fossil pigments, carbon, nitrogen and sulphur in the sediment of eight European alpine lakes: the MOLAR project. J. Limnol. 59(suppl. 1) (in press).
Leavitt, P. R., 1993. A review of factors that regulate carotenoid and chlorophyill deposition and fossil pigment abundance. J. Paleolim. 9: 109-127.
Levesque, A. J., F. E. Mayle, I. R. Walker & L. C. Cwynar, 1993. A previously unrecognised late-glacial cold event in eastern North America. Nature 361: 623-626.
Levesque, A. J., L. C. Cwynar & I. Walker, 1994. A multi-proxy investigation of late-glacial climate and vegetation change at Pine Ridge Point, southwest New Brunswick, Canada. Quat. Res. 42: 316-327.
Levesque, A. J., L. C. Cwynar & I. Walker, 1997. Exceptionally steep north-south gradients in lake temperatures during the last deglaciation. Nature 385: 423-426.
Lotter, A. F. & C. Bigler, 2000. Do diatoms in the Swiss Alps reflect the length of ice-cover? Aquat. Sci. 62: 125-141.
Lotter, A. F., H. J. B. Birks, U. Eicher, W. Hofmann, J. Schwander & L. Wick, 2000. Younger Dryas and Allerød summer temperatures at Gerzensee (Switzerland) inferred from fossil pollen and cladoceran asemblages. Palaeogr. Palaeoeclim. Palaeoecol. 159: 349-361.
Lotter, A. F., H. J. B. Birks, W. Hofmann & A. Marchetto, 1997. Modern diatom, cladocera, chironomid and chrysophyte cyst assemblages as quantitative indicators for the reconstruction of past environmental conditions in the Alps. I. Climate. J. Paleolim. 18: 395-420.
Lotter, A. F., P. G. Appleby, R. Bindler, J. A. Dearing, J.-A. Grytnes, W. Hofmann, C. Kamenik, A. Lami, D. M. Livingstone, C. Ohlendorf, N. L. Rose & M. Sturm, 2002. The sediment record of the past 200 years in a Swiss high-alpine lake: Hagelseewli (2339 m.a.s.l.). J. Paleolim. 28: 111-127.
Meijering, W. P. D., 1983. On the occurrence of 'arctic' Cladocera with special reference to those along the Strait of Belle Isle (Quebec, Labrador, Newfoundland). Int. Revue ges. Hydrobiol. 68: 885-893.
Michel, C., L. Legendre, J.-C. Therriault & S. Demers, 1989. Photosynthetic response of arctic sea-ice microalgae to short-term temperature acclimation. Polar Biol. 9: 437-442.
Millard, S. P. & N. K. Neerchal, 2001. Environmental statistics with S-Plus. CRC Press, London.
Moore, M. V., C. F. Folt & R. S. Stemberger, 1996. Consequences of elevated temperatures for zooplankton assemblages in temperate lakes. Arch. Hydrobiol. 135: 289-319.
Nesje, A. & S. O. Dahl, 2001. The Greenland 8200 cal. yr BP event detected in loss-on-ignition profiles in Norwegian lacustrine sediment sequences. J. Quat. Sci. 16: 155-166.
Olander, H., A. Korhola & T. Blom, 1997. Surface sediment Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) distributions along an ecotonal transect in subarctic Fennoscandia: developing a tool for palaeotemperature reconstructions. J. Paleolim. 18: 45-59.
Olander, H., H. J. B. Birks, A. Korhola & T. Blom, 1999. An expanded calibration model for inferring summer lake-water and air temperatures from chironomid assemblages in northern Fennoscandia. The Holocene. 9: 279-294.
Patalas, K., 1990. Diversity of the zooplankton communities in Canadian lakes as a function of climate. Verh. Int. Ver. Limnol. 24: 360-368.
Pienitz, R., J. P. Smol & H. J. B. Birks, 1995. Assessment of freshwater diatoms as quantitative indicators of past climate change in the Yukon and Northwest Territories, Can. J. Paleolim. 13: 21-49.
Pla, S., 2001. Chrysophycean cysts from the Pyrenees. J. Cramer, Berlin, Germany.
Psenner, R. & R. Schmidt, 1992. Climate-driven pH control of remote alpine lakes and effects of acid deposition. Nature 356: 781-783.
Ramsey, F. L. & D. W. Schafer, 1997. The Statistical Sleuth. A Course in Methods of Data Analysis. Duxbury Press, London.
Rautio, M., 1998. Community structure of crustacean zooplankton in subarctic ponds-effects of altitude and physical heterogenity. Ecography 21: 327-335.
Rautio, M., S. Sorvari & A. Korhola, 2000. Diatom and crustacean zooplankton communities, their seasonal variability and representation in the sediments of subarctic Lake Saanajärvi. J. Limnol. 59: 81-96.
Raven, J. & R. Geider, 1988. Temperature and algal growth. New Phytol. 110: 441-461.
Rioual, P., V. Andrieu-Ponel, M. Rietti-Shati, R. W. Battarbee, J.-L. de Beaulieu, R. Cheddadi, M. Reille, H. Svobodova & A. Shemesh, 2001. High-resolution record of climate stability in France during the last interglacial period. Nature 413: 293-296.
Rose, N. L., 1995. The carbonaceous particle record in lake sediments from the Arctic and other remote areas of the northern hemisphere. Sci. Total Environ. 160/161: 487-496.
Rosén, P., U. Segerström, L. Eriksson, I. Renberg & H. J. B. Birks, 2001. Holocene climate change reconstructed from diatoms, chironomids, pollen and near-infrared spectroscopy at an alpine lake (Sjuodjijaure) in northern Sweden. The Holocene (in press).
Sandgren, C. D. (ed.), 1988. Growth and Reproductive Strategies of Freshwater Phytoplankton. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Sandgren, C. D., J. P. Smol & J. Kristiansen (eds), 1995. Chrysophyte algae. Ecology, Phylogeny, and Development. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Sandøy, S. & J. P. Nilssen, 1986. A geographical survey of littoral crustacea in Norway and their use in paleolimnology. Hydrobiologia 143: 277-286.
Smol, J. P., 1988. Paleoclimate proxy data from freshwater arctic diatoms. Verh. Int. Ver. Limnol. 23: 837-844.
Smol, J. P., I. R. Walker & P. Leavitt, 1991. Paleolimnology and hindcasting climatic trends. Verh. Int. Ver. Limnol. 24: 1240-1246.
Sovari, S. & A. Korhola, 1998. Recent diatom assemblage changes in subarctic Lake Saanajärvi, NW Finnish Lapland, and their palaeoevnironmental implications. J. Paleolim. 20: 205-215.
Šporka, F., E. Štefková, P. Bitušík, R. Thompson, A. Agustí-Panareda, P. G. Appleby, J.-A. Grytnes, C. Kamenik, I. Krno, A. Lami, N. L. Rose & E. Shilland, 2002. The paleolimnological analysis of sediments from high mountain lake Nižné Terianske pleso in the High Tatras (Slovakia). J. Paleolim. 28: 95-109.
Stemberger, R., A. Herlihy, D. Kugler & S. Paulsen, 1996. Climatic forcing on zooplankton richness in lakes of the northeastern United States. Limnol. Oceanogr. 41: 1093-1101.
Thompson, R. & R. M. Clark, 1989. Sequence slotting for stratigraphic correlation between cores: theory and practice. J. Paleolim. 2:173-184.
Vasko, K., H. T. T. Toivonen & A. Korhola, 2000. A Bayesian multinomial Gaussian response model for organism-based environmental reconstruction. J. Paleolim. 24: 243-250.
Walker, I. R., 1995. Chironomids as indicators of past environmental change. In Armitage, P. D., P. S. Cranston & L. C. V. Pinder (eds), The Chironomidae. The Biology and Ecology of Nonbiting Midges. Chapman & Hall, London, 405-422.
Walker, I. R., J. P. Smol, D. R. Engstrom & H. J. B. Birks, 1991. An assessment of Chironomidae as quantitative indicators of past climatic change. Can. J. Fish. aquat. Sci. S. 48: 975-987.
Walker, I. R., A. J. Levesque, L. C. Cwynar & A. F. Lotter, 1997. An expanded surface-water palaeotemperature inference model for use with fossil midges from eastern Canada. J. Paleolim. 18: 165-178.
Wathne, B. M., S. Patrick & N. G. Cameron, 1997. AL:PE-acidification of mountain lakes: palaeolimnology and ecology. Part 2-remote mountain lakes as indicators of air pollution and climate change. NIVA report 3538-97, Oslo.
Weckström, J. & A. Korhola, 2001. Patterns in the distribution, composition and diversity of diatom assemblages in relation to ecoclimatic factors in Arctic Lapland. J. Biogeogr. 28: 31-46.
Weckström, J., A. Korhola & T. Blom, 1997a. The relationship between diatoms and water temperature in 30 subarctic Fennoscandian lakes. Arct. Alp. Res. 29: 75-92.
Weckström, J., A. Korhola & T. Blom, 1997b. Diatoms as quantitative indicators of pH and water temperature in subarctic Fennoscandian lakes. Hydrobiol. 347: 171-184.
Willemse, N. W. & T. E. Törnquist, 1999. Holocene century-scale temperature variability from West Greenland lake records. Geology 27: 580-584.
Wilson, S. E., I. R. Walker, R. J. Mott & J. P. Smol, 1993. Climatic and limnological changes associated with the Younger Dryas in Atlantic Canada. Clim. Dynam. 8: 177-187.