Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

Elsevier BV - Tập 2 Số 1 - 2015
Matthias Albert1, Jan Holmegaard Hansen1, Jürgen Nagel1, Matthias Schmidt1, Hermann Spellmann1
1Northwest German Forest Research Station, Göttingen, Germany

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Adams HD, Guardiola-Claramonte M, Barron-Gafford GA, Villegas JC, Breshears DD, Zhou CB, Troch PA, Huxman TE: Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought. PNAS 2009,106(17):7063–7066.

Adger WN: Vulnerability. Glob Environ Change 2006, 16: 268–281.

Ahrends B: Ableitung der Nährstoffziffer anhand von bodenphysikalischen und bodenchemischen Kenngrößen. 2010.

Albert M, Schmidt M: Climate-sensitive modelling of site-productivity relationships for Norway spruce ( Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and common beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.). For Ecol Manage 2010, 259: 739–749.

Albrecht A, Kohnle U, Hanewinkel M, Bauhus J: Storm damage of Douglas-fir unexpectedly high compared to Norway spruce. Annals For Sci 2012,70(2):195–207.

Allen CD, Macalady AK, Chenchouni H, Bachelet D, McDowell N, Vennetier M, Kitzberger T, Rigling A, Breshears DD, Hogg EH, Gonzalez P, Fensham R, Zhang Z, Castro J, Demidova N, Lim J-H, Allard G, Running SW, Semerci A, Cobb N: A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. For Ecol Manage 2010, 259: 660–684.

Ammer C, Albrecht L, Borchert H, Brosinger F, Dittmar C, Elling W, Ewald J, Felbermeier B, Hv G, Huss J, Kenk G, Kölling C, Kohnle U, Meyer P, Mosandl R, Moosmayer H-U, Palmer S, Reif A, Rehfuess K-E, Stimm B: Zur Zukunft der Buche ( Fagus sylvatica L.) in Mitteleuropa. Allg Forst J Ztg 2005,176(4):60–67.

Anderegg LDL, Anderegg WRL, Berry JA: Not all droughts are created equal: translating meteorological drought into woody plant mortality. Tree Physiol 2013,33(7):701–712.

Ascough IIJC, Maier HR, Ravalico JK, Strudley MW: Future research challenges for incorporation of uncertainty in environmental and ecological decision-making. Ecol Modelling 2008, 219: 383–399.

Bolte A, Czajkowski T, Kompa T: The north-eastern distribution range of European beech – a review. Forestry 2007,80(4):413–429.

Bolte A, Ammer C, Löf M, Madsen P, Nabuurs G-J, Schall P, Spathelf P, Rock J: Adaptive forest management in central Europe: Climate change impacts, strategies and integrative concept. Scan J For Res 2009, 24: 473–482.

Borchers JG: Accepting uncertainty, assessing risk: Decision quality in managing wildfire, forest resource values, and new technology. For Ecol Manage 2005,211(1–2):36–46.

Bredemeier M, Lamersdorf N, Schulte-Bisping H, Lüpke B: Risk Appraisal for Forest Management with Respect to Site Quality and Environmental Changes. In Risk analysis in Forest Management. Managing Forest Ecosystems, Vol. 2. Edited by: Gadow K. Springer Science+Business Media, Dordrecht; 2001.

Carlowitz HC (1713) Sylvicultura oeconomica. Braun Leipzig

Clark JS, Carpenter SR, Barber M, Collins S, Dobson A, Foley JA, Lodge DM, Pascual M, Pielke JR, Pizer W, Pringle C, Reid WV, Rose KA, Sla O, Schlesinger WH, Wall DH, Wear D: Ecological Forecasts: An Emerging Imperative. Science 2001, 293: 657–659.

de Martonne E: Une nouvelle fonction climatologique: l’indice d’aridité. La Météorologie 1926, 21: 449–458.

Dobbertin M, Wermelinger B, Bigler C, Bürgi M, Carron M, Forster B, Gimmi U, Rigling A: Linking increased drought stress to Scots pine mortality and bark beetle infestations. ScientificWorldJournal 2007,7(S1):231–239.

Eichhorn J, Dammann I, Schönfelder E, Albrecht M, Beck W, Paar U: Untersuchungen zur Trockenheitstoleranz der Buche am Beispiel des witterungsextremen Jahres 2003. In Nordwestdeutsche Forstliche Versuchsanstalt (ed) Ergebnisse angewandter Forschung zur Buche. Beiträge aus der Nordwestdeutschen Forstlichen Versuchsanstalt. Universitätsverlag Göttingen, Göttingen; 2008:109–134.

Farooq M, Wahid A, Kobayashi N, Fujita D, Basra SMA: Plant drought stress: effects, mechanisms and management. Agronomy Sustain Dev, Springer (Germany) 2009,29(1):185–212.

Gadow K: Evaluating risk in forest planning models. Silva Fennica 2000,34(2):181–191.

Gadow K: Risk analysis in forest management. Managing Forest Ecosystems, vol. 2. Springer Science+Business Media, Dordrecht; 2001.

Galik CS, Jackson RB: Risks to forest carbon offset projects in a changing climate. For Ecol Manage 2009, 257: 2209–2216.

Griess VC, Acevedo R, Härtl F, Staupendahl K, Knoke T: Does mixing tree species enhance stand resistance against natural hazards? A case study for spruce. For Ecol Manage 2012, 267: 274–296.

Hanewinkel M, Zhou W, Schill C: A neural network approach to identify forest stands susceptible to wind damage. For Ecol Manage 2004, 196: 227–243.

Hanewinkel M, Hummel S, Cullmann DA: Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany. For Ecol Manage 2009, 259: 710–719.

Hansen J, Nagel J: Waldwachstumskundliche Softwaresysteme auf Basis von TreeGrOSS – Anwendungen und theoretische Grundlagen. Beiträge aus der Nordwestdeutschen Forstlichen Versuchsanstalt. Universitätsverlag Göttingen, Göttingen; 2014.

Hanson PJ, Weltzin JF: Drought disturbance from climate change: response of United States forests. Sci Total Environ 2000, 262: 205–220.

Hirshleifer J, Riley JG: The Analytics of Uncertainty and Information. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge; 1992.

IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.

Jones RN: Managing uncertainty in climate change projections – issues for impact assessment. Climate Change 2000, 45: 403–419.

Kangas AS, Kangas J: Probability, possibility and evidence: approaches to consider risk and uncertainty in forestry decision analysis. For Pol Econ 2004, 6: 169–188.

Kätzel R, Löffler S, Möller K (2008) Zur physiologischen Anpassungsfähigkeit der Waldkiefer. In: Nordwestdeutsche Forstliche Versuchsanstalt (ed) Die Waldkiefer – Fachtagung zum Baum des Jahres 2007. Beiträge aus der Nordwestdeutschen Forstlichen Versuchsanstalt, vol. 2. Universitätsverlag Göttingen, Göttingen.

Kellomäki S, Peltola H: Silvicultural strategies for predicting damage to forests from wind, fire and snow. Res Note 73. Faculty of Forestry, University of Joensuu, Finland; 1998.

Kohnle U, Gauckler S: Vulnerability of forests to storm damage in a forest district of south-western Germany situated in the periphery of the 1999 storm (Lothar). University of Karlsruhe, Germany; 2003.

Lappi J: Calibration of height and volume equations with random parameters. For Sci 1991,43(4):555–570.

Lindner M: Developing adaptive forest management strategies to cope with climate change. Tree Physiol 2000, 20: 299–307.

Lindner M, Maroschek M, Netherer S, Kremer A, Barbati A, Garcia-Gonzalo J, Seidl R, Delzon S, Corona P, Kolström M, Lexer MJ, Marchetti M: Climate change impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems. For Ecol Manage 2010, 259: 698–709.

Lüpke B, Spellmann H: Aspekte der Stabilität und des Wachstums von Mischbeständen aus Fichte und Buche als Grundlage für waldbauliche Entscheidungen. Forstarchiv 1997, 68: 167–179.

Menzel A: Phänologie von Waldbäumen unter sich ändernden Klimabedingungen – Auswertung der Beobachtungen in den Internationalen Phänologischen Gärten und Möglichkeiten der Modellierung von Phänodaten. Forstliche Forschungsberichte München 1997, 164: 147.

Millar CI, Stephenson NL, Stephens SL: Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecol Appl 2007,17(8):2145–2151.

Moss R, Babiker M, Brinkman S, Calvo E, Carter T, Edmonds J, Elgizouli I, Emori S, Erda L, Hibbard K, Jones R, Kainuma M, Kelleher J, Lamarque J-F, Manning M, Matthews B, Meehl J, Meyer L, Mitchell J, Nakicenovic N, O’Neill B, Pichs R, Riahi K, Rose S, Runci P, Stouffer R, van Vuuren D, Weyant J, Wilbanks T, van Ypersele JP, et al.: Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva; 2008.

Niinemets Ü, Valladares F: Tolerance to shade, drought, and waterlogging of temperate northern hemisphere trees and shrubs. Ecol Mono 2006,76(4):521–547.

Niklińska M, Maryański M, Laskowski R: Effect of temperature on humus respiration rate and nitrogen mineralization: Implications for global climate change. Biogeochemistry 1999, 44: 239–257.

Olofsson E, Blennow K: Decision support for identifying spruce forest stand edges with high probability of wind damage. For Ecol Manage 2005, 207: 87–98.

Orlowsky B, Gerstengarbe F-W, Werner PC: A resampling scheme for regional climate simulations and its performance compared to a dynamical RCM. Theor Appl Climatol 2008,92(3–4):209–223.

Otto HJ: Waldökologie. Verlag Eugen Ulmer, Stuttgart; 1994.

Overbeck M, Schmidt M, Fischer C, Evers J, Schultze A, Hövelmann T, Spellmann H: Ein statistisches Modell zur Regionalisierung der nutzbaren Feldkapazität von Waldstandorten in Niedersachsen. Forstarchiv 2011, 82: 92–100.

Peltola H, Kellomäki S, Väisänen H, Ikonen V-P: A mechanistic model for assessing the risk of wind and snow damage to single trees and stands of Scots pine, Norway spruce, and birch. Can J For Res 1999, 29: 647–661.

Peltola H, Gardiner B, Nicoll B (2013) Mechanics of wind damage. In: Gardiner B, Schuck A, Schelhaas J-M, Orazio C, Blennow K, Nicoll B (eds) Living with Storm Damage to Forests. What Science Can Tell Us Vol 3, European Forestry Institute. 31–38

Peters GP, Andrew RM, Boden T, Josep Canadell G, Ciais P, Le Quéré C, Marland G, Raupach MR, Wilson C: The challenge to keep global warming below 2°C. Nat Clim Chang 2013, 3: 4–6.

Pretzsch H, Schütze G, Uhl E: Resistance of European tree species to drought stress in mixed versus pure forests: evidence of stress release by inter-specific facilitation. Plant Biol 2012,15(3):483–495.

Pretzsch H, Biber P, Schütze G, Uhl E, Rötzer T: Forest stand growth dynamics in Central Europe have accelerated since 1870. Nat Comm 2014,5(4967):1–10.

Rebetez M, Dobbertin M: Climate change may already threaten Scots pine stands in the Swiss Alps. Theor Appl Climatol 2004, 79: 1–9.

Rennenberg H, Seiler W, Matyssek R, Gessler A, Kreuzwieser J: Die Buche (Fagus sylvatica L.) – ein Waldbaum ohne Zukunft im südlichen Mitteleuropa. Allg Forst J Ztg 2004,175(10/11):210–224.

Richter A, Adler GH, Fahrak M, Eckelmann W: Erläuterungen zur nutzungsdifferenzierten Bodenübersichtskarte der Bundesrepublik Deutschland im Maßstab 1:1.000.000 (BÜK 1000 N, Version 2.3). Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover; 2007.

Roloff A, Grundmann BM: Waldbaumarten und ihre Verwendung im Klimawandel. Archiv f Forstw u Ldschökol 2008, 42: 97–109.

Rowe WD (1994) Understanding Uncertainty. Risk Analysis, 14: 743–750. doi: 10.1111/j.1539–6924.1994.tb00284.x

Schmidt M (2010) Ein standortsensitives, longitudinales Höhen-Durchmesser-Modell als Lösung für das Standort-Leistungs-Problem in Deutschland. In: Nagel J (ed) Jahrestagung der Sektion Ertragskunde des DVFFA in Körbecke., Göttingen

Schmidt M, Hanewinkel M, Kändler G, Kublin E, Kohnle U: An inventory-based approach for modeling single-tree storm damage – experiences with the winter storm of 1999 in southwestern Germany. Can J For Res 2010, 40: 1636–1652.

Schulla J (1997) Hydrologische Modellierung von Flussgebieten zur Abschätzung der Folgen von Klimaänderung. Diss. 12018, ETH Zurich, pp 163 (in German with English summary)

Schulla J, Jasper K: Model Description WaSIM-ETH. ETH technical report, Zurich. 2007.

Schütz JP, Götz M, Schmid W, Mandallaz D: Vulnerability of spruce (Picea abies) and beech (Fagus sylvatica) forest stands to storms and consequences for silviculture. Eur J Forest Res 2006, 125: 291–302.

Scott RE, Mitchell SJ: Empircal modelling of windthrow risk in partially harvested stands using tree neighbourhood and stand attributes. For Ecol Manage 2005, 218: 193–209.

Seidl R, Rammer W, Lexer MJ (2010) Climate change vulnerability of sustainable forest management in the Eastern Alps. Climate Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584–010–9899–1

Spellmann H, Sutmöller J, Meesenburg H: Risikovorsorge im Zeichen des Klimawandels. AFZ-Der Wald 2007, 23: 1246–1249.

Spellmann H, Albert M, Schmidt M, Sutmöller J, Overbeck M: Waldbauliche Anpassungsstrategien für veränderte Klimaverhältnisse. AFZ-Der Wald 2011, 11: 19–23.

Turner IIBL, Matson PA, McCarthy JJ, Corell RW, Christensen L, Eckley N, Hovelsrud-Broda GK, Kasperson JX, Kasperson RE, Luers A, Martello ML, Mathiesen S, Naylor R, Polsky C, Pulsipher A, Schiller A, Selin H, Tyler N: Illustrating the coupled human-environment system for vulnerability analysis: Three case studies. PNAS 2003,100(14):8080–8085.

United Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs (1992) Internationally agreed glossary of basic terms related to disaster management. Geneva. http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/004DFD3E15B69A67C1256C4C006225C2-dha-glossary-1992.pdf

Valinger E, Lindqvist L, Bondesson L: Assessing the risk of snow and wind damage from tree physical characteristics. Forestry 1993,66(3):249–260.

Walther A, Linderholm HW: A comparison of growing season indices for the Greater Baltic Area. Int J Biometeorol 2006, 51: 107–118.

Wilpert K: Die Jahrringstruktur von Fichten in Abhängigkeit vom Bodenwasserhaushalt auf Pseudogley und Parabraunerde : ein Methodenkonzept zur Erfassung standortsspezifischer Wasserstreßdisposition. Freiburger Bodenkundl Abhandlungen 1990, 24: 184.

Zang C, Pretzsch H, Rothe A: Size-dependent responses to summer drought in Scots pine, Norway spruce and common oak. Trees 2011,26(2):557–569.

Zang C, Rothe A, Weis W, Pretzsch H: Zur Baumarteneignung bei Klimawandel: Ableitung der Trockenstress-Anfälligkeit wichtiger Waldbaumarten aus Jahrringbreiten. Allg Forst J Ztg 2011,182(5/6):98–112.