Steady decline of east Asian monsoon winds, 1969–2000: Evidence from direct ground measurements of wind speed

American Geophysical Union (AGU) - Tập 111 Số D24 - 2006
Ming Xu1,2, Chih‐Pei Chang3,4, Congbin Fu5, Ye Qi6, Alan Robock7, David A. Robinson8, Huai‐Min Zhang9
1Also at College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China.
2Center for Remote Sensing and Spatial Analysis, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources Rutgers University New Brunswick New Jersey USA
3Also at Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
4Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, USA
5Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
6School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
7Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University New Brunswick New Jersey USA
8Department of Geography Rutgers University Piscataway New Jersey USA
9National Climatic Data Center NOAA Asheville North Carolina USA

Tóm tắt

It is commonly believed that greenhouse‐gas‐induced global warming can weaken the east Asian winter monsoon but strengthen the summer monsoon, because of stronger warming over high‐latitude land as compared to low‐latitude oceans. In this study, we show that the surface wind speed associated with the east Asian monsoon has significantly weakened in both winter and summer in the recent three decades. From 1969 to 2000, the annual mean wind speed over China has decreased steadily by 28%, and the prevalence of windy days (daily mean wind speed > 5 m/s) has decreased by 58%. The temperature trends during this period have not been uniform. Significant winter warming in northern China may explain the decline of the winter monsoon, while the summer cooling in central south China and warming over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific Ocean may be responsible for weakening the summer monsoon. In addition, we found that the monsoon wind speed is also highly correlated with incoming solar radiation at the surface. The present results, when interpreted together with those of recent climate model simulations, suggest two mechanisms that govern the decline of the east Asian winter and summer monsoons, both of which may be related to human activity. The winter decline is associated with global‐scale warming that may be attributed to increased greenhouse gas emission, while the summer decline is associated with local cooling over south‐central China that may result from air pollution.

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American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Tập 111 Số D24

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