The Projection Problem
Tóm tắt
While world population has continued to increase, fertility has been falling. Projections out to the year 2050 currently assume that fertility will continue to decline to, or below, replacement. 1) Past projections have been very wrong. Estimates of population growth have alternated between being far too low and far too high. 2) Similarly, public anguish has alternated between extreme fears of over- and under-population, neither supported by eventualities. 3) We do not understand the causes of the current fertility decline and so have little reason to project its continuation. 4) Many of the Asian countries, which are exemplars of the current decline, are exceptional because of coercion and/or vast infusions of Western capital. 5) The population decline may as readily plateau at 3 children as at 2 children. With an unknowable future, an emphasis on future population is misplaced. Concerns should be for the present. Poor families and a stressed environment are struggling with current population levels right now. Complacency about the future is unjustified by the facts and may derail efforts to ensure the continuation of the fertility decline.
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