Phenological mismatch between breeding birds and their surveyors and implications for estimating population trends

Boersch-Supan PH, Trask AE, Baillie SR (2019) Robustness of simple avian population trend models for semi-structured citizen science data is species-dependent. Biol Conserv 240:108286

Brereton TM, Botham MS, Middlebrook I, Randle Z, Noble D, Harris S, Dennis EB, Robinson AE, Peck K, Roy DB (2019) United Kingdom Butterfly Monitoring Scheme report for 2018. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Butterfly Conservation, British Trust for Ornithology and Joint Nature Conservation Committee

Buckland ST, Anderson DR, Burnham KP, Laake JL, Borchers DL, Thomas L (2001) Introduction to distance sampling. Estimating abundance of biological populations. Oxford University Press, New York

British Trust for Ornithology (2018) BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey instructions. https://www.bto.org/sites/default/files/bbs_instructions_2018.pdf. Accessed 31 March 2020.

Caughlan L, Oakley KL (2001) Cost considerations for long-term ecological monitoring. Ecol Indic 1:123–134

Crick HQP, Dudley C, Glue DE, Thompson DL (1997) UK birds are laying eggs earlier. Nature 388:526

Eaton MA, Aebischer NJ, Brown AF, Hearn RD, Lock L, Musgrove AJ, Noble DG, Stroud DA, Gregory RD (2015) Birds of Conservation Concern 4: the population status of birds in the United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man. British Birds 108:708–746

Eurostat (2019) https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/regions-and-cities/overview

Greenwood JJD, Robinson RA (2006) Principles of sampling. A handbook. In: Sutherland WJ (ed) Ecological census techniques. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 11–86

Harris SJ, Massimino D, Balmer DE, Eaton MA, Noble DG, Pearce-Higgins JW, Woodcock P, Gillings S (2019) The Breeding Bird Survey 2019. BTO Research Report 726. British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford

Kéry M, Schmid H (2004) Monitoring programs need to take into account imperfect species detectability. Basic Appl Ecol 5:65–73

Lehikoinen A (2013) Climate change, phenology and species detectability in a monitoring scheme. Popul Ecol 55:315–323

Marchant JH, Hudson R, Carter SP, Whittington PA (1990) Population Trends in British Breeding Birds. BTO, Tring

Massimino D, Gillings S (2018) Updating information on the period of reproduction and prenuptial migration for UK and Irish species included on Annex II of the EU Birds Directive. BTO Research Report 711. British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford

Morrison ML (2002) Wildlife restoration. Techniques for habitat analysis and animal monitoring. Island Press, Washington

Newson SE, Massimino D, Johnston A, Baillie SR, Pearce-Higgins JW (2013) Should we account for detectability in population trends? Bird Study 60:384–390

Newson SE, Moran NJ, Musgrove AJ, Pearce-Higgins JW, Gillings S, Atkinson PW, Miller R, Grantham MJ, Baillie SR (2016) Long-term changes in the migration phenology of UK breeding birds detected by large-scale citizen science recording schemes. Ibis 158:481–496

Newson SE, Woodburn R, Noble DG, Baillie SR, Gregory RD (2005) Evaluating the Breeding Bird Survey for producing national population size and density estimates. Bird Study 52:42–54

Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37–42

Pannekoek J, van Strien A (2005) TRIM 3 Manual (TRends & Indices for Monitoring data). Statistics Netherlands, Voorburg

PECBMS (2019) PanEuropean common bird monitoring scheme. https://pecbms.info/

Rubolini D, Møller AP, Rainio K, Lehikoinen E (2007) Intraspecific consistency and geographic variability in temporal trends of spring migration phenology among European bird species. Clim Res 35:135–146

Senyatso K, Sheehan D, Eaton M, Butchart S (2008) Guidelines for the development of Bird Population Monitoring in Africa. BirdLife International & RSPB

Thackeray SJ, Henrys PA, Hemming D, Bell JR, Botham MS, Burthe S, Helaouet P, Johns DG, Jones ID, Leech DI, Mackay EB, Massimino D, Atkinson S, Bacon PJ, Brereton TM, Carvalho L, Clutton-Brock TH, Duck C, Edwards M, Elliott JM, Hall SJG, Harrington R, Pearce-Higgins JW, Høye TT, Kruuk LEB, Pemberton JM, Sparks TH, Thompson PM, White I, Winfield IJ, Wanless S (2016) Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels. Nature 535:241–245

United States Geological Survey (2019) North American Breeding Bird Survey. https://www.pwrc.usgs.gov/bbs/index.cfm

Wood SN (2017) Generalized additive models: an introduction with R, 2nd edn. CRC Press, Boca Raton