Predicting range shifts of northern bird species: Influence of modelling technique and topography

ACIA, 2005 Ahti, 1968, Vegetation zones and their sections in northwestern, Europe. Ann. Bot. Fenn., 5, 169 Algar, 2009, Predicting the future of species diversity: macroecological theory, climate change, and direct tests of alternative forecasting methods, Ecography, 32, 22, 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.05832.x Araújo, 2004, Matching species with reserves – uncertainties from using data at different resolutions, Biol. Conserv., 118, 533, 10.1016/j.biocon.2003.10.006 Araújo, 2007, Ensemble forecasting of species distributions, Trends Ecol. Evol., 22, 42, 10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.010 Araújo, 2005, Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 14, 529, 10.1111/j.1466-822X.2005.00182.x Araújo, 2005, Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change, Global Change Biol., 11, 1504, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01000.x Ashcroft, 2009, Climate change at the landscape scale: predicting fine-grained spatial heterogeneity in warming and potential refugia for vegetation, Global Change Biol., 15, 656, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01762.x Austin, 2006, Evaluation of statistical models used for predicting plant species distributions: role of artificial data and theory, Ecol. Model., 199, 197, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.05.023 Bashir, 2005, High breakdown mixture discriminant analysis, J. Multivariate Anal., 93, 102, 10.1016/j.jmva.2003.12.003 Beaumont, 2002, Potential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterfly species in response to climate change, Global Change Biol., 8, 954, 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00490.x Breiman, 2001, Random forests, Mach. Learn., 45, 5, 10.1023/A:1010933404324 Breiman, 1984 Coblentz, 2004, Topographic controls on the regional-scale biodiversity of the south-western USA, J. Biogeogr., 31, 1125, 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2004.00981.x Currie, 1991, Energy and large-scale patterns of animal-species and plant-species richness, Am. Nat., 137, 27, 10.1086/285144 Cutler, 2007, Random forests for classification in ecology, Ecology, 88, 2783, 10.1890/07-0539.1 Elith, 2007, Predicting species distributions from museum and herbarium records using multiresponse models fitted with multivariate adaptive regression splines, Diversity Distrib., 13, 265, 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2007.00340.x Elith, 2009, Do they? How do they? Why do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models, Ecography, 32, 66, 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05505.x Elith, 2006, Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data, Ecography, 29, 129, 10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x Elith, 2008, A working guide to boosted regression trees, J. Anim. Ecol., 77, 802, 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01390.x Fielding, 1997, A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models, Environ. Conserv., 24, 38, 10.1017/S0376892997000088 Fitzpatrick, 2009, The projection of species distribution models and the problem of non-analog climate, Biodiv. Conserv., 18, 2255, 10.1007/s10531-009-9584-8 Forsman, 2003, The role of climate in limiting European resident bird populations, J. Biogeogr., 30, 55, 10.1046/j.1365-2699.2003.00812.x Frantzen, 1991 Friedman, 1991, Multivariate adaptive regression splines, Ann. Stat., 19, 1, 10.1214/aos/1176347963 Friedman, 2001, Greedy function approximation: a gradient boosting machine, Ann. Stat., 29, 1189, 10.1214/aos/1013203451 Guisan, 2005, Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models, Ecol. Lett., 8, 993, 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x Guisan, 2002, Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene, Ecol. Model., 157, 89, 10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00204-1 Guisan, 2007, What matters for predicting the occurrences of trees: techniques, data, or species' characteristics?, Ecol. Monogr., 77, 615, 10.1890/06-1060.1 Guralnick, 2006, The legacy of past climate and landscape change on species' current experienced climate and elevation ranges across latitude: a multispecies study utilizing mammals in western North America, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 15, 505, 10.1111/j.1466-822X.2006.00231.x 1997 Hannah, 2007, Protected area needs in a changing climate, Front. Ecol. Environ., 5, 131, 10.1890/1540-9295(2007)5[131:PANIAC]2.0.CO;2 Hastie, 1990 Hastie, 1996 Heikkinen, 2006, Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 30, 751, 10.1177/0309133306071957 Heikkinen, 2007, Modelling the spatial distribution of a threatened butterfly: impacts of scale and statistical technique, Landscape Urban Plan., 79, 347, 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2006.04.002 Huntley, 2006, Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds, Ibis, 148, 8, 10.1111/j.1474-919X.2006.00523.x Huntley, 2008, Potential impacts of climate change on European breeding birds, PLoS ONE, 1 Huntley, 2007 IPCC, 2001, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis Ju, 2003, Gaussian mixture discriminant analysis and sub-pixel land cover characterization in remote sensing, Remote Sens. Environ., 84, 550, 10.1016/S0034-4257(02)00172-4 Järvinen, 1976, Species diversity of Finnish birds, II: biotopes at the transition between taiga and tundra, Acta Zool. Fenn., 145, 1 Järvinen, 1978, Ecological zoogeography of North European waders, or Why do so many waders breed in the North?, Oikos, 30, 496, 10.2307/3543345 Kühn, 2009, Aktuelle Ansätze zur Modellierung der Auswirkungen von Klimaveränderungen auf die biologische Vielfalt, Natur und Landschaft, 84, 8 Lawler, 2006, Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability, Global Change Biol., 12, 1568, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01191.x Leathwick, 2006, Comparative performance of generalized additive models and multivariate adaptive regression splines for statistical modelling of species distributions, Ecol. Model., 199, 188, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.05.022 Lek, 1999, Artificial neural networks as a tool in ecological modelling, an introduction, Ecol. Model., 120, 65, 10.1016/S0304-3800(99)00092-7 Liu, 2005, Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions, Ecography, 28, 385, 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2005.03957.x Luoto, 2008, Disregarding topographical heterogeneity biases species turnover assessments based on bioclimatic models, Global Change Biol., 14, 483, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01527.x Luoto, 2004, Loss of palsa mires in Europe and biological consequences, Environ. Conserv., 31, 30, 10.1017/S0376892904001018 Luoto, 2005, Uncertainty of bioclimate envelope models based on geographical distribution of species, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 14, 575, 10.1111/j.1466-822X.2005.00186.x Luoto, 2007, The role of land cover in bioclimatic models depends on spatial resolution, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 16, 34, 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2006.00262.x Marmion, 2009, Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modelling, Diversity Distrib, 15, 59, 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00491.x Marmion, 2009, The performance of state-of-the-art modelling techniques depends on geographical distribution of species, Ecol. Model., 220, 3512, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.10.019 McCullagh, 1989 McPherson, 2007, Effects of species' ecology on the accuracy of distribution models, Ecography, 30, 135 Meynard, 2007, Predicting species distributions: a critical comparison of the most common statistical models using artificial species, J. Biogeogr., 34, 1455, 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2007.01720.x Mitchell, T.D., Carter, T.R., Jones, P.D., Hulme, M., New, M., 2004. A Comprehensive set of High Resolution Grids of Monthly Climate for Europe and the Globe: the Observed Record (1901–2000) and 16 Scenarios (2001–2100). Tyndall Centre Working Paper 55, 30 pp. Parmesan, 2006, Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst., 37, 637, 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100 Pearson, 2003, Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 12, 361, 10.1046/j.1466-822X.2003.00042.x Pearson, 2004, Modelling species distributions in Britain: a hierarchical integration of climate and land-cover data, Ecography, 27, 285, 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2004.03740.x Pearson, 2006, Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction, J. Biogeogr., 33, 1704, 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01460.x Peters, 1985, The greenhouse effect and nature reserves, BioScience, 35, 707, 10.2307/1310052 Peterson, 2003, Projected climate change effects on Rocky Mountain and Great Plains birds: generalities of biodiversity consequences, Global Change Biol., 9, 647, 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00616.x Prasad, 2006, Newer classification and regression tree techniques: Bagging and random forests for ecological prediction, Ecosystems, 9, 181, 10.1007/s10021-005-0054-1 Prendergast, 1993, Rare Species, the Coincidence of Diversity Hotspots and Conservation Strategies, Nature, 365, 335, 10.1038/365335a0 Pöyry, 2008, Species traits are associated with the quality of bioclimatic models. Global Ecol, Biogeogr, 17, 403, 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00373.x Randin, 2009, Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence, Global Change Biol., 15, 1557, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01766.x R Development Core Team, 2004 Richerson, 1980, Patterns of plant species diversity in California: relation to weather and topography, Am. Nat., 116, 504, 10.1086/283645 Ridgeway, 1999, The state of boosting, Comp. Sci. Stat., 31, 172 Segurado, 2004, An evaluation of methods for modelling species distributions, J. Biogeogr., 31, 1555, 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2004.01076.x Sekercioglu, 2008, Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions, Conserv. Biol., 22, 140, 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00852.x Seoane, 2005, Species-specific traits associated to prediction errors in bird habitat suitability modelling, Ecol. Model., 185, 299, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.12.012 Settele, 2005, ALARM – assessing large-scale environmental risks for biodiversity with tested methods, GAIA, 14, 69, 10.14512/gaia.14.1.20 Sharma, 2008, Predicting smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) occurrence across North America under climate change: a comparison of statistical approaches, Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 65, 471, 10.1139/f07-178 Swets, 1988, Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems, Science, 240, 1285, 10.1126/science.3287615 Thomas, 2004, Extinction risk from climate change, Nature, 427, 145, 10.1038/nature02121 Thuiller, 2003, BIOMOD – optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change, Global Change Biol., 9, 1353, 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00666.x Thuiller, 2004, Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change, Global Change Biol., 10, 2020, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00859.x Thuiller, 2003, Generalized models vs. classification tree analysis: predicting spatial distributions of plant species at different scales, J. Veg. Sci., 14, 669, 10.1111/j.1654-1103.2003.tb02199.x Thuiller, 2004, Do we need land-cover data to model species distributions in Europe?, J. Biogeogr., 31, 353, 10.1046/j.0305-0270.2003.00991.x Thuiller, 2005, Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 102, 8245, 10.1073/pnas.0409902102 Thuiller, 2005, Niche properties and geographical extent as predictors of species sensitivity to climate change, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 14, 347, 10.1111/j.1466-822X.2005.00162.x Thuiller, 2006, Predicting patterns of plant species richness in megadiverse South Africa, Ecography, 29, 733, 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2006.04674.x Thuiller, 2009, BIOMOD- a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions, Ecography, 32, 369, 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05742.x Trivedi, 2008, Spatial scale affects bioclimate model projections of climate change impacts on mountain plants, Global Change Biol., 14, 1089, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01553.x Vaughan, 2003, Improving the quality of distribution models for conservation by addressing shortcomings in the field collection of training data, Conserv. Biol., 17, 1601, 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2003.00359.x Venables, 2002 Virkkala, 1991, Spatial and temporal variation in bird communities and populations in north-boreal coniferous forests: a multiscale approach, Oikos, 62, 59, 10.2307/3545446 Virkkala, 2006, Spatial variation of bird species in landscapes dominated by old-growth forests in northern boreal Finland, Biodiv. Conserv., 15, 2143, 10.1007/s10531-004-6897-5 Virkkala, 2008, Projected large-scale range reductions of northern-boreal land bird species due to climate change, Biol. Conserv., 141, 1343, 10.1016/j.biocon.2008.03.007 Väisänen, 1989, Renewal of methodology in the 2nd bird atlas of Finland, 1986–89, Ann. Zool. Fenn., 26, 167 Väisänen, R.A., Lammi, E., Koskimies, P., 1998. Distribution, Numbers and Population Changes of Finnish Breeding Birds. Otava, Helsinki, Finland (in Finnish with an English summary).