Long‐term trend analysis for precipitation in Asian Pacific FRIEND river basins

Hydrological Processes - Tập 19 Số 18 - Trang 3517-3532 - 2005
Zhiheng Xu1,2, K. Takeuchi1, Hiroshi Ishidaira1, J. Y. Li3
1Institute of Materials & Environmental Technology, Graduate School of Engineering Yamanashi University, Kofu 400-8511, Japan
2Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education, College of Water Sciences Beijing 100875, People's Republic of China
3College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, People's Republic of China

Tóm tắt

AbstractIn order to analyse the long‐term trend of precipitation in the Asian Pacific FRIEND region, records from 30 river basins to represent the large range of climatic and hydrological characteristics in the study area are selected. The long‐term trend in precipitation time series and its association with the southern oscillation index (SOI) series are investigated. Application of the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test for 30 precipitation time series has shown that only four of these 30 time series have a long‐term trend at the 5% level of significance. Nevertheless, most of the records tend to decrease over the last several decades. The dataset is further divided geographically into northern, middle, and southern zones, with 20°N and 20°S latitude as the dividing lines. The middle zone has the greatest variation and the southern zone the least variation over the past century. Also, the southern zone has greater variation during the past 30 years. The association between precipitation and SOI is investigated by dividing the precipitation records of each station into El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods. The Wilcoxon rank‐sum test showed that differences in precipitation for the three classes were most marked in the southern zone of the study area. The frequencies of below‐ and above‐average precipitation for El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods are estimated for the 30 precipitation time series as well. The results show that the frequencies of precipitation under each set of conditions, with lower precipitation generally associated with El Niño periods in the southern zone. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Hydrological Processes

Tập 19 Số 18

3517-3532

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