A quantitative method for assessing resilience of interdependent infrastructures

Kröger, 2011 Kröger, 2008, Critical infrastructure at risk: a need for a new conceptual approach and extended analytical tools, Reliab Eng Syst Saf, 93, 1781, 10.1016/j.ress.2008.03.005 Eusgeld, 2009, The role of network theory and object-oriented modeling within a framework for the vulnerability analysis of critical infrastructures, Reliab Eng Syst Saf, 94, 954, 10.1016/j.ress.2008.10.011 Rinaldi, 2001, Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies, IEEE Control Syst, 21, 11, 10.1109/37.969131 US – Canada Power System Outage Task Force. Final Report on the August 14, 2003 Blackout in the United States and Canada: Causes and Recommendations; 2004. Brummitt, 2012, Suppressing cascades of load in interdependent networks, Proc Natl Acad Sci, 109, E680, 10.1073/pnas.1110586109 Buldyrev, 2010, Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks, Nature, 464, 1025, 10.1038/nature08932 Vespignani, 2010, Complex networks: the fragility of interdependency, Nature, 464, 984, 10.1038/464984a Leavitt, 2006, Infrastructure interdependency and the creation of a normal disaster the case of hurricane Katrina and the city of New Orleans, Public Works Manag Policy, 10, 306, 10.1177/1087724X06289055 Ouyang, 2012, A three-stage resilience analysis framework for urban infrastructure systems, Struct Saf, 36–37, 23, 10.1016/j.strusafe.2011.12.004 Fisher R, Bassett G, Buehring W, Collins M, Dickinson D, Eaton L, et al. Constructing a Resilience Index for the Enhanced Critical Infrastructure Protection Program. Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Department of Energy, United States; 2010 Madni, 2009, Towards a conceptual framework for resilience engineering, IEEE Syst J, 3, 181, 10.1109/JSYST.2009.2017397 Decò, 2013, A probabilistic approach for the prediction of seismic resilience of bridges, Earthq Eng Struct Dyn, 42, 1469, 10.1002/eqe.2282 Linkov, 2014, Risking resilience: changing the paradigm, Nat Clim Change, 4, 407, 10.1038/nclimate2227 Holling, 1973, Resilience and stability of ecological systems, Annu Rev Ecol Syst, 1, 10.1146/annurev.es.04.110173.000245 Adger, 2000, Social and ecological resilience: are they related?, Prog Hum Geogr, 24, 347, 10.1191/030913200701540465 Pant R, Barker K. Building dynamic resilience estimation metrics for interdependent infrastructures. ESREL 2012. Helsinki, Finland; 2012. Hollnagel, 2006 〈http://www.resalliance.org/〉. Haimes, 2009, On the definition of resilience in systems, Risk Anal, 29, 498, 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01216.x McCarthy JA, Pommering C, Perelman LJ, Scalingi PL, Garbin DA, Shortle JF, et al. Critical thinking: Moving from infrastructure protection to infrastructure resilience. George Mason University CIP Program Discussion Paper Series; 2007; p. 97–109 McDaniels, 2008, Fostering resilience to extreme events within infrastructure systems: characterizing decision contexts for mitigation and adaptation, Glob Environ Change, 18, 310, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.03.001 Fiksel, 2003, Designing resilient, sustainable systems, Environ Sci Technol, 37, 5330, 10.1021/es0344819 Bruneau, 2003, A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities, Earthq Spectra, 19, 733, 10.1193/1.1623497 Gao, 2011, Robustness of a network of networks, Phys Rev Lett, 107, 195701, 10.1103/PhysRevLett.107.195701 Brand K-P, Lohmann V, Wimmer W. Substation automation handbook: Utility Automation Consulting Lohmann; 2003 Vugrin, 2010, A Framework for assessing the resilience of infrastructure and economic systems, 77 Bruneau, 2003, A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities, Earthq Spectra, 19, 733, 10.1193/1.1623497 Chang, 2004, Measuring Improvements in the Disaster Resilience of Communities, Earthq Spectra, 20 Directive PP. Critical infrastructure security and resilience. PPD-21; 2013 Bueno, 2012, Assessing the resilience of small socio-ecological systems based on the dominant polarity of their feedback structure, Syst Dyn Rev, 28, 351, 10.1002/sdr.1476 Filippini, 2013, A modeling framework for the resilience analysis of networked systems-of-systems based on functional dependencies, Reliab Eng Syst Saf Alessandri, 2013, Evaluation of resilience of interconnected systems based on stability analysis, 180 Henry, 2012, Generic metrics and quantitative approaches for system resilience as a function of time, Reliab Eng Syst Saf, 99, 114, 10.1016/j.ress.2011.09.002 Nan C., Sansavini G., Kroeger W., Heinimann H.R. A quantitative method for assessing the resilience of infrastructure systems. In: Proceedings of the 12th Probabilistic safety assessment & management conference (PSAM12). Honolulu, USA; 2014. Ferreira, 2013, Probabilistic ramp detection and forecasting for wind power prediction, 9 Kamath, 2010, Understanding wind ramp events through analysis of historical data, Transm Distrib Conf Expo, 1 Zheng, 2009, Prediction of wind farm power ramp rates: a data-mining approach, J Sol Energy Eng, 131, 31011, 10.1115/1.3142727 Francis, 2014, A metric and frameworks for resilience analysis of engineered and infrastructure systems, Reliab Eng Syst Saf, 121, 90, 10.1016/j.ress.2013.07.004 Griot, 2010, Modelling and simulation for critical infrastructure interdependency assessment: a meta-review for model characterisation, Int J Crit Infrastruct, 6, 363, 10.1504/IJCIS.2010.037453 Pederson P, Dudenhoeffer D, Hartly S, Permann M. Critical infrastructure interdependency modeling: A survey of US and international research. Idaho National Laboratory; 2006 Zio, 2011, Modeling Interdependent Network Systems for Identifying Cascade-Safe Operating Margins, IEEE Trans Reliab, 60, 94, 10.1109/TR.2010.2104211 Nan, 2013, Analyzing vulnerabilities between SCADA system and SUC due to interdependencies, Reliab Eng Syst Saf, 113, 76, 10.1016/j.ress.2012.12.014 Nan, 2011, standard for interdependency study, Reliab Eng Syst Saf, 96, 149, 10.1016/j.ress.2010.08.002 Zio, 2013, Vulnerability of smart grids with variable generation and consumption: a system of systems perspective., IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern: Syst, 43, 477, 10.1109/TSMCA.2012.2207106 Bilis, 2013, Performance of electric power systems under physical malicious attacks, Syst J IEEE, 7, 854, 10.1109/JSYST.2012.2223512 Chappin EJL, Dijkema GPJ. Agent-based modeling of energy infrastructure transitions. In: Proceedings of the first international conference on infrastructure systems and services: Building Networks for a Brighter Future (INFRA); 2008. p. 1–6 Tolk A, Uhrmacher AM. Agents: Agenthood, agent architectures, and agent taxonomies. Agent-Directed Simulation and Systems Engineering: Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA; 2010. p. 73–109 Sharit J. Human error and human reliability analysis. Handbook of human factors and ergonomics, fourth edition; 2012. p. 734–800 Wood, 2012 Schläpfer M, Kessler T, Kröger W. Reliability analysis of electric power systems using an object-oriented hybrid modeling approach. In: Proceedings of the 16th power systems computation conference. Glasgow; 2008. Nan C, Eusgeld I. Exploring impacts of single failure propagation between SCADA and SUC. In: Proceedings of the IEEE international conference on industrial engineering and engineering management (IEEM); 2011. p. 1564–8. Hollnagel, 1998 Nan, 2016, Developing an agent-based hierarchical modeling approach to assess human performance of infrastructure systems, Int J Ind Ergon, 53, 340, 10.1016/j.ergon.2016.04.002 Nan C, Eusgeld I. Exploring impacts of single failure propagation between SCADA and SUC. In: Proceedings of the IEEE international conference on industrial engineering and engineering management (IEEM); 2011. p. 1564–8 Bilis, 2010, Seismic response of the swiss transmission grid, Proc ESREL, 5 Raschke M, Bilis E, Kröger W. Vulnerability of the Swiss electric power transmission grid against natural hazards. Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering: CRC Press; 2011. p. 1407–14 Cepin M. Relaibillity of power systems-catastrophic sleet and ice rain in Slovenia 2014. ESRA (European Safety Reliability Association) Newsletter; March 2014 Samenow, 2014 Bründl, 2002, The storm Lothar 1999 in Switzerland–an incident analysis, Snow Land Res, 77, 2 Lachs, 1987, Transmission-line overloads: real-time control. Generation, Transmission and Distribution, IEE Proc C, 134, 342 George, 2004