The normal fire environment—Modeling environmental suitability for large forest wildfires using past, present, and future climate normals

Forest Ecology and Management - Tập 390 - Trang 173-186 - 2017
Raymond Davis1, Zhiqiang Yang2, Andrew Yost3, Cole Belongie4, Warren Cohen5
1U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
2Department of Forest Ecosystem and Society, Oregon State University, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
3Oregon Department of Forestry, 2600 State Street, Salem, OR 97321, USA
4U.S. Forest Service, National Interagency Fire Center, 3833 South Development Ave, Boise, ID 83705, USA
5U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA

Tài liệu tham khảo

Abatzoglou, 2016, Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 113, 11770, 10.1073/pnas.1607171113 Agee, 1993 Alexander, 2013, Are the applications of wildland fire behavior models getting ahead of their evaluation again?, Environ. Model. Softw., 41, 65, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.11.001 Allen, 2015, On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene, Ecosphere, 6, 129, 10.1890/ES15-00203.1 Arroyo, 2008, Fire models and methods to map fuel types: the role of remote sensing, For. Ecol. Manage., 256, 1239, 10.1016/j.foreco.2008.06.048 Barbero, 2014, Modeling very large-fire occurrence over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 124009, 10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124009 Barbero, 2015, Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 24, 892, 10.1071/WF15083 Beaty, 2001, Spatial and temporal variation of fire regimes in a mixed conifer forest landscape, southern Cascades, California, USA, J. Biogeogr., 28, 955, 10.1046/j.1365-2699.2001.00591.x Bell, 2016, On the dangers of model complexity without ecological justification in species distribution modeling, Ecol. Model., 330, 50, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.03.012 Berry, 2015, Identifying the location of fire refuges in wet forest ecosystems, Ecol. Appl., 25, 2337, 10.1890/14-1699.1 Boyce, 2002, Evaluating resource selection functions, Ecol. Model., 157, 281, 10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00200-4 Burnham, 2002 Byers, 1984, Clarification of a technique for analysis of utilization-availability data, J. Wildl. Manage., 48, 1050, 10.2307/3801467 Clark, 2016, The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States, Glob. Change Biol., 22, 2329, 10.1111/gcb.13160 Clarke, 2002, Habitat islands in fire-prone vegetation: do landscape features influence community composition?, J. Biogeogr., 29, 1, 10.1046/j.1365-2699.2002.00716.x Countryman, 1972 Daly, 2008, Physiographically-sensitive mapping of temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States, Int. J. Clim., 28, 2031, 10.1002/joc.1688 Davis, R.J., Aney, W.C., Evers, L., Dugger, K.M., 2011. Large wildfires within the owl’s range. In: Northwest Forest Plan—The First 15 Years (1994–2008): Status and Trends of Northern Spotted Owl Populations and Habitats. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-850. USDA, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, OR, 147 p. (Chapter 4). De Angelis, 2015, Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions, PLoS ONE, 10, e0116875, 10.1371/journal.pone.0116875 Dennison, 2014, Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984–2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2928, 10.1002/2014GL059576 Dissing, 2003, Spatial patterns of lightning strikes in interior Alaska and their relations to elevation and vegetation, Can. J. For. Res., 33, 770, 10.1139/x02-214 Dormann, 2013, Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance, Ecography, 36, 027, 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07348.x Elith, 2011, A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists, Divers. Distrib., 17, 43, 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00725.x Ellison, A., Mosely, C., Evers, C., Nielsen-Pincus, M., 2013. Forest Service Spending on Large Wildfires in the West. Working Paper 41. Ecosystem Workforce Program, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, 16 p. <https://www.firescience.gov/projects/09-1-10-3/project/09-1-10-3_WP_41.pdf>. Fernandes, 2013, Fire-smart management of forest landscapes in the Mediterranean basin under global change, Landsc. Urban Plan., 110, 175, 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2012.10.014 Fielding, 1997, A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models, Environ. Conserv., 24, 38, 10.1017/S0376892997000088 Flannigan, 2000, Climate change and forest fires, Sci. Total Environ., 262, 221, 10.1016/S0048-9697(00)00524-6 Fonseca, 2016, Modelling fire probability in the Brazilian Amazon using the maximum entropy method, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 25, 955, 10.1071/WF15216 Gebert, 2007, Estimating suppression expenditures for individual large wildland fires, West. J. Appl. For., 22, 188, 10.1093/wjaf/22.3.188 Gorelick, 2013, Google earth engine, EGU Gen. Assemb. Conf. Abstr., 15, 11997 Hirzel, 2006, Evaluating the ability of habitat suitability models to predict species presences, Ecol. Model., 199, 142, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.05.017 Houtman, 2013, Allowing a wildfire to burn: estimating the effect on future wildfire suppression costs, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 22, 871, 10.1071/WF12157 Hustich, 1978, A change in attitudes regarding the importance of climatic fluctuations, Fennia, 150, 59 Keane, 2013, Describing wildland surface fuel loading for fire management: a review of approaches, methods and systems, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 22, 51, 10.1071/WF11139 Krawchuk, 2009, Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire, PLoS ONE, 4, e5102, 10.1371/journal.pone.0005102 Krawchuk, 2014, Burning issues: statistical analyses of global fire data to inform assessments of environmental change, Environmetrics, 25, 472, 10.1002/env.2287 Li, 2002, Estimation of fire frequency and fire cycle: a computational perspective, Ecol. Model., 154, 103, 10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00069-8 Littell, 2009, Climate, wildfire area burned in western US ecoprovinces, 1916–2003, Ecol. Appl., 19, 1003, 10.1890/07-1183.1 Littell, 2010, Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA, Clim. Change, 102, 129, 10.1007/s10584-010-9858-x Littell, 2016, A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States, Glob. Change Biol., 10.1111/gcb.13275 Liu, Z., Wimberly, M.C., 2016. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States. Sci. Total Environ. 542(A), 65–75. Lutz, 2011, Fire frequency, area burned, and severity: a quantitative approach to defining a normal fire year, Fire Ecol., 7, 51, 10.4996/fireecology.0702051 Mackey, 2012, Ecosystem greenspots: identifying potential drought, fire and climate change micro-refuges, Ecol. Appl., 22, 1852, 10.1890/11-1479.1 Mann, 2016, Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: effects of human activity and climate change on fire activity in California, PLoS ONE, 11, 10.1371/journal.pone.0153589 McKenzie, 2004, Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation, Conserv. Biol., 18, 890, 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.00492.x Merow, 2013, A practical guide to MaxEnt for modeling species’ distributions: what it does, and why inputs and settings matter, Ecography, 36, 1058, 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.07872.x Merow, 2014, What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?, Ecography, 37, 267, 10.1111/ecog.00845 Millar, 2007, Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty, Ecol. Appl., 17, 2145, 10.1890/06-1715.1 Moreira, 2001, Temporal (1958–1995) pattern of change in a cultural landscape of northwestern Portugal: implications for fire occurrence, Landsc. Ecol., 16, 557, 10.1023/A:1013130528470 Moritz, 2012, Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity, Ecosphere, 3, 49, 10.1890/ES11-00345.1 Moritz, 2014, Learning to coexist with wildfire, Nature, 515, 58, 10.1038/nature13946 Mote, 2010, Future climate in the Pacific Northwest, Clim. Change, 102, 29, 10.1007/s10584-010-9848-z Nemani, 2011, Collaborative supercomputing for global change science, EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 92, 109, 10.1029/2011EO130001 North, 2015, Reform forest fire management; agency incentives undermine policy effectiveness, Science, 349, 1280, 10.1126/science.aab2356 Omernik, 2014, Ecoregions of the conterminous United States: evolution of a hierarchical spatial framework, Environ. Manage., 54, 1249, 10.1007/s00267-014-0364-1 Parisien, 2009, Environmental controls on the distribution of wildfire at multiple spatial scales, Ecol. Monogr., 79, 127, 10.1890/07-1289.1 Parisien, 2012, Spatial variability in wildfire probability across the western United States, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 21, 313, 10.1071/WF11044 Peterson, D.W., Kerns, B.K., Dodson, E.K., 2014. Climate Change Effects on Vegetation in the Pacific Northwest: A Review and Synthesis of the Scientific Literature and Simulation Model Projections. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-900. USDA, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, OR, 183 p. Phillips, 2006, Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions, Ecol. Model., 190, 231, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026 Phillips, 2008, Modeling of species distributions with MaxEnt: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation, Ecography, 31, 161, 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.5203.x Preisler, 2004, Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 13, 133, 10.1071/WF02061 PRISM Purves, 2008, Predictive models of forest dynamics, Science, 320, 1452, 10.1126/science.1155359 Reifsnyder, W.E., 1960. Weather and fire control practices. In: Proceedings of the Fifth World Forestry Congress, vol. 2. University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA, pp. 835–841. Riahi, 2011, RCP 8.5—a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions, Clim. Change, 109, 33, 10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y Rogers, 2011, Impacts of climate change on fire regimes and carbon stocks of the US Pacific Northwest, J. Geophys. Res., 116, 10.1029/2011JG001695 Ruefenacht, 2008, Conterminous U.S. and Alaska forest type mapping using forest inventory and analysis data, Photogr. Eng. Rem. Sens., 74, 1379, 10.14358/PERS.74.11.1379 Stavros, 2014, Climate and very large wildland fires in the contiguous Western USA, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 23, 899, 10.1071/WF13169 Swets, 1988, Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems, Science, 240, 1285, 10.1126/science.3287615 Syphard, 2013, Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss, PLoS ONE, 8, 10.1371/journal.pone.0071708 Taylor, 2012, An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485, 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1 Thompson, 2013, A risk-based approach to wildland fire budgetary planning, For. Sci., 59, 63, 10.5849/forsci.09-124 Thomson, 2011, RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100, Clim. Change, 109, 77, 10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4 Thrasher, 2013, New downscaled climate projections suitable for resource management in the U.S., EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 94, 321, 10.1002/2013EO370002 Trewin, B., 2007. The Role of Climatological Normals in a Changing Climate. WMO-TD No. 1377. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 46 p. <https://www.wmo.int/datastat/documents/WCDMPNo61_1.pdf>. USDA, 2015. The Rising Cost of Fire Operations: Effects on the Forest Service’s Non-fire Work. US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 16 p. <http://www.fs.fed.us/sites/default/files/2015-Fire-Budget-Report.pdf>. Van Vuuren, 2011, The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Clim. Change, 109, 5, 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z van Wagtendonk, 2008, Temporal and spatial distribution of lightning strikes in California in relation to large-scale weather patterns, Fire Ecol., 4, 34, 10.4996/fireecology.0401034 West, 2016, Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA, Clim. Change, 134, 565, 10.1007/s10584-015-1553-5 Westerling, 2016, Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B, 371, 20150178, 10.1098/rstb.2015.0178 Whitman, 2015, The climate space of fire regimes in north-western North America, J. Biogeogr., 42, 1736, 10.1111/jbi.12533