Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals?

World Development - Tập 127 - Trang 104749 - 2020
Jonathan D. Moyer1,2, Steve Hedden1,2
1Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, 2201 South Gaylord Street, Denver, CO 80203, USA
2Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, 2201 South Gaylord Street, Denver, CO 80203, USA

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Allen, 2016, National pathways to the sustainable development goals (SDGs): A comparative review of scenario modelling tools, Environmental Science & Policy, 66, 199, 10.1016/j.envsci.2016.09.008

Anand, 2006

Bohl, 2016

Bourguignon, F. (2004). The poverty-growth-inequality triangle. IDEAS Working Paper Series from RePEc; St. Louis. https://search.proquest.com/docview/1698589507?rfr_id=info%3Axri%2Fsid%3Aprimo.

Burt, 2014

Campagnolo, 2017

Chandy, 2013

Cole, 2017, Spatial variability in sustainable development trajectories in South Africa: Provincial level safe and just operating spaces, Sustainability Science, 12, 829, 10.1007/s11625-016-0418-9

Cumming, 2017, Achieving the national development agenda and the sustainable development goals (SDGs) through investment in ecological infrastructure: A case study of South Africa, Ecosystem Services, Investing in Ecological Infrastructure in South Africa, 27, 253

Dagnachew, 2017, The role of decentralized systems in providing universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa – A model-based approach, Energy, 139, 184, 10.1016/j.energy.2017.07.144

Dellink, 2017, Long-term economic growth projections in the shared socioeconomic pathways, Global Environmental Change, 42, 200, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004

DfID, 2017

Dickson, J. R., Hughes B., & Irfan, M. T. (2010). Advancing global education. Vol. 2. 5 vols. Patterns of Potential Human Progress. [Denver]: Boulder: New Delhi: Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver; Paradigm Publishers; Oxford University Press.

Dickson, 2016, USE 2030: Exploring impacts, costs, and financing

Edward, P.; Sumner, A. (2013). The future of global poverty in a multi-speed world: New estimates of scale and location, 2010–2030. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2364153.

2003

FAO. (2017). FAOSTAT. 2017. http://www.fao.org/faostat/.

FAO, 2017

Fullman, 2017, Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related sustainable development goals in 188 countries: An analysis from the global burden of disease study 2016, The Lancet, 390, 1423, 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X

Global Trade Analysis Project. (2018). GTAP 9 Database. 2018. https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/databases/v9/default.asp.

Golding, 2017, Mapping under-5 and neonatal mortality in Africa, 2000–15: A baseline analysis for the sustainable development goals, The Lancet, 390, 2171, 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)31758-0

González-Pier, 2016, Mexico’s path towards the sustainable development goal for health: An assessment of the feasibility of reducing premature mortality by 40% by 2030, The Lancet Global Health, 4, e714, 10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30181-4

Griggs, 2013, Policy: Sustainable development goals for people and planet, Nature, 495, 305, 10.1038/495305a

Hallegatte, 2017, Climate change through a poverty lens, Nature Climate Change, 7, 250, 10.1038/nclimate3253

Hanasaki, 2013, A global water scarcity assessment under shared socio-economic pathways – Part 1: Water use, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2375, 10.5194/hess-17-2375-2013

Hasegawa, 2015, Scenarios for the risk of hunger in the twenty-first century using shared socioeconomic pathways, Environmental Research Letters, 10, 10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014010

Hedden, 2016

Hegre, 2016, Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways, Environmental Research Letters, 11, 10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054002

Hughes, 2007

Hughes, 2015

Hughes, 2016, International futures (IFs) and integrated, long-term forecasting of global transformations, Futures, Modelling and Simulation in Futures Studies, 81, 98

Hughes, 2019

Hughes, B. B., Irfan, M. T., Khan, H., Kumar, K. B., Rothman, D. S., Solorzano, J. R. (2009). Reducing Global Poverty. Vol. 1. 5 vols. Patterns of Potential Human Progress. Denver: Boulder: New Delhi: Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver; Paradigm Publishers; Oxford University Press India.

Hughes, 2014

Hughes, B. B., Kuhn, R., Peterson, C. M., Rothman, D. S., Solórzano, J. R. (2011). Improving Global Health. Vol. 3. 5 vols. Patterns of Potential Human Progress. Denver: Boulder: New Delhi: Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver; Paradigm Publishers; Oxford University Press India.

Hughes, 2014

IEA. (2017). World Energy Outlook 2017.

IFPRI, 2016

Jiang, 2017, Global urbanization projections for the shared socioeconomic pathways, Global Environmental Change, 42, 193, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.008

Joshi, 2015, Improving governance for the post-2015 sustainable development goals: Scenario forecasting the next 50 years, World Development, 70, 286, 10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.01.013

Kc, 2010, Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005–2050, Demographic Research, 22, 383, 10.4054/DemRes.2010.22.15

KC, 2017, The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100, Global Environmental Change, 42, 181, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004

Klimont, 2017, Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17, 8681, 10.5194/acp-17-8681-2017

Kuhn, 2016, Beyond attributable burden: Estimating the avoidable burden of disease associated with household air pollution, PLoS ONE, 11, 1, 10.1371/journal.pone.0149669

Lim, 2016, Measuring the health-related sustainable development goals in 188 countries: A baseline analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015, The Lancet, 388, 1813, 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31467-2

Liu, 2016, Global, regional, and national causes of under-5 mortality in 2000–15: An updated systematic analysis with implications for the sustainable development goals, The Lancet, 388, 3027, 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31593-8

Liu, 2015, Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality in 2000–13, with projections to inform post-2015 priorities: An updated systematic analysis, The Lancet, 385, 430, 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61698-6

Lucas, 2017

Lucas, 2015, Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from integrated assessment models, Energy Policy, 86, 705, 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.08.017

Lutz, 2017

Lutz, 2013, Global human capital: integrating education and population, Science Magazine

Mason-Droz, 2016, Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia, Environmental Modelling & Software, 83, 255, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.008

Mathers, 2006, Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030, PLoS Medicine, 3, 10.1371/journal.pmed.0030442

Milante, 2016, Poverty eradication in fragile places: Prospects for harvesting the highest hanging fruit by 2030, Stability: International Journal of Security and Development, 5, 1, 10.5334/sta.435

Millennium Institute. (2017). Integrated sustainable development goals (ISDG) model – United Nations partnerships for SDGs platform. 2017. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/partnership/?p=11520.

Moyer, 2012

Moyer, 2018, Alternative pathways to human development: Assessing trade-offs and synergies in achieving the sustainable development goals, Futures

Moyer, 2012

Moyer, 2015

Murray, C. J. L., & Lopez, A. D. (1996). The global burden of disease: A comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases, injuries, and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020: Summary. http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/41864/1/0965546608_eng.pdf.

Murray, 2007, Can we achieve millennium development goal 4? New analysis of country trends and forecasts of under-5 mortality to 2015, The Lancet, 370, 10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61478-0

Nicolai, 2015

OECD, 2017

O’Neill, 2014, A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways, Climatic Change, 122, 387, 10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2

Palazzo, 2017, Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context, Global Environmental Change, 45, 227, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.002

Popp, 2017, Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways, Global Environmental Change, 42, 331, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002

Ravallion, 2013, How long will it take to lift one billion people out of poverty?, The World Bank Research Observer, 28, 139, 10.1093/wbro/lkt003

Rickels, 2016, Indicators for monitoring sustainable development goals: An application to oceanic development in the European Union, Earth’s Future, 4, 252, 10.1002/2016EF000353

Rothman, 2017

Rothman, 2013

Rothman, 2014

Sachs, 2018

Schmidt-Traub, 2017, National baselines for the sustainable development goals assessed in the SDG index and dashboards, Nature Geoscience, 10, 547, 10.1038/ngeo2985

Stohl, 2015, Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics; Katlenburg-Lindau, 15, 10529, 10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015

The World Bank, 2018

The World Bank, 2018

UNDESA. (2017). SDG Indicators Metadata Repository. July 2017. https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/.

UNDG, 2017

UNESCO Institute for Statistics. (2018). UNESCO UIS. 2018. http://uis.unesco.org/.

UNGA. (2015). A/RES/70/1: Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development. United Nations General Assembly.

van Vuuren, 2015, Pathways to achieve a set of ambitious global sustainability objectives by 2050: Explorations using the IMAGE integrated assessment model, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 98, 303, 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.03.005

van Vuuren, 2015, Pathways to achieve a set of ambitious global sustainability objectives by 2050: Explorations using the IMAGE Integrated assessment model, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 98, 303, 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.03.005

van Vuuren, 2017, The shared socio-economic pathways: Trajectories for human development and global environmental change, Global Environmental Change, 42, 148, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.009

Wainer, 2016

WHO, 2017

WHO, 2017

WHO/UNICEF. (2018). JMP. 2018. https://washdata.org/data.

World Bank, 2015, Global monitoring report 2015/2016: Development goals in an era of demographic change, The World Bank

World Bank, 2017

World Bank. (2018). World development indicators. 2018. http://databank.worldbank.org.

You, 2015, Global, regional, and national levels and trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015, with scenario-based projections to 2030: A systematic analysis by the UN inter-agency group for child mortality estimation, The Lancet, 386, 2275, 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00120-8