On the realistic contribution of European forests to reach climate objectives
Tóm tắt
A recent article by Luyssaert et al. (Nature 562:259–262, 2018) analyses the climate impact of forest management in the European Union, considering both biogeochemical (i.e., greenhouse gases, GHG) and biophysical (e.g., albedo, transpiration, etc.) effects. Based on their findings, i.e. that additional net overall climate benefits from forest management would be modest, the authors conclude that the EU “should not rely on forest management to mitigate climate change”. We first explain that most of the additional EU GHG mitigation effort by 2030 is expected to come from emission reductions and only a very small part from forestry, even when forest bioenergy is allowed for. Nevertheless, the inclusion of forest management in climate change mitigation strategies is key to identifying the country-specific optimal mix, in terms of overall GHG balance, between strategies focused on conserving and/or enhancing the sink and strategies focused on using more wood to reduce emissions in other GHG sectors. Then, while acknowledging the importance that biophysical effects have on the climate, especially at the local and seasonal scale, we argue that the net annual biophysical climate impact of forest management in Europe remains more uncertain than the net CO2 impact. This has not been adequately emphasized by Luyssaert et al. (2018), leading to conclusions on the net overall climate impact of forest management that we consider premature and applied to a partially biased perception of European policy towards forestry and climate change. To avoid further confusion in the debate on how forestry may contribute to mitigating climate change, a more constructive dialogue between the scientific community and policy makers is needed.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Luyssaert S, et al. Trade-offs in using European forests to meet climate objectives. Nature. 2018;562:259–62.
Grassi G, et al. The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation. Nat Clim Chang. 2017;7:220–6.
European Commission (EC). Impact assessment of proposal for a regulation on the inclusion of greenhouse gas emissions and removals from land use, land use change and forestry into the 2030 climate and energy Framework. 2016.
Luyssaert S, et al. Author correction: trade-offs in using European forests to meet climate objectives. Nature. 2018;567:E13.
EEA (European Environment Agency). Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2016 and inventory report 2018. Submission to the UNFCCC Secretariat. 2018.
Canadell JG, et al. Factoring out natural and indirect human effects on terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. Environ Sci Policy. 2007;10:370–84.
Grassi G, Pilli R, House J, Federici S, Kurz WA. Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests. Carbon Balance Manag. 2018;13:8.
EU (European Union). Regulation (EU) 2018/841 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 May 2018 on the inclusion of greenhouse gas emissions and removals from land use, land use change and forestry in the 2030 climate and energy framework, and amending Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 and Decision No 529/2013/EU (Text with EEA relevance). 2018.
Forsell N, et al. Guidance on developing and reporting Forest Reference Levels in accordance with regulation (EU) 2018/841. 2018. https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/5ef89b70-8fba-11e8-8bc1-01aa75ed71a1/language-en. Accessed 3 June 2019.
EC (European Commission). 2030 climate & energy framework. https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030_en. Accessed 3 June 2019.
Matthews R, et al. Carbon impacts of biomass consumed in the EU: quantitative assessment. Final report, project: DG ENER/C1/427 Part A: main report. 2015.
Nabuurs GJ, et al. By 2050 the mitigation effects of EU forests could nearly double through climate smart forestry. Forests. 2017;8:484.
Nabuurs G-J, Arets EJMM, Schelhaas M-J. Understanding the implications of the EU-LULUCF regulation for the wood supply from EU forests to the EU. Carbon Balance Manag. 2018;13:18.
Strandberg G, Kjellström E, Strandberg G, Kjellström E. Climate impacts from afforestation and deforestation in Europe. Earth Interact. 2018. https://doi.org/10.1175/EI-D-17-0033.1.
Perugini L, et al. Biophysical effects on temperature and precipitation due to land cover change. Environ Res Lett. 2017;12:053002.
Duveiller G, et al. Biophysics and vegetation cover change: a process-based evaluation framework for confronting land surface models with satellite observations. Earth Syst Sci Data. 2018;10:1265–79.
Alkama R, Cescatti A. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover. Science. 2016;351(6273):600–4. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac8083.
Lejeune Q, Davin EL, Gudmundsson L, Seneviratne SI. Historical deforestation increased the risk of heat extremes in northern mid-latitudes 2. Nat Clim Chang. 2018;8(5):1–16. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0131-z.
Duveiller G, Hooker J, Cescatti A. A dataset mapping the potential biophysical effects of vegetation cover change. Sci Data. 2018;5:180014.
Kurz W, Smyth C, Lemprière T. Climate change mitigation through forest sector activities: principles, potential and priorities 1. Unasylva. 2016;67:61–7.
EC (European Commission). A clean planet for all. A European strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52018DC0773. Accessed 3 June 2019.
Popkin G. The forest question. Nature. 2019;565:280–2.
Grassi G, et al. Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks. Nat Clim Chang. 2018;8:914–20.