Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football

International Journal of Forecasting - Tập 26 - Trang 460-470 - 2010
Lars Magnus Hvattum1, Halvard Arntzen2
1Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway
2Molde University College, Norway

Tài liệu tham khảo

Boulier, 1999, Are sports seedings good predictors? An evaluation, International Journal of Forecasting, 15, 83, 10.1016/S0169-2070(98)00067-3 Boulier, 2003, Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games, International Journal of Forecasting, 19, 257, 10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00144-3 Boulier, 2006, Testing the efficiency of the National Football League betting market, Applied Economics, 38, 279, 10.1080/00036840500368904 Brier, 1950, Verification of weather forecasts expressed in terms of probability, Monthly Weather Review, 78, 1, 10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2 Buchdahl, 2003 Cain, 2000, The favourite-longshot bias and market efficiency in UK football betting, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 47, 25, 10.1111/1467-9485.00151 Clarke, 2000, Using official ratings to simulate major tennis tournaments, International Transactions in Operational Research, 7, 585, 10.1111/j.1475-3995.2000.tb00218.x Crowder, 2002, Dynamic modelling and prediction of English football league matches for betting, The Statistician, 51, 157, 10.1111/1467-9884.00308 Dixon, 1997, Modelling association football scores and inefficiencies in the football betting market, The American Statistician, 46, 265 Elo, 1978 Forrest, 2000, Forecasting sport: The behavior and performance of football tipsters, International Journal of Forecasting, 16, 317, 10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00050-9 Forrest, 2008, Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football, Applied Economics, 40, 119, 10.1080/00036840701522895 Forrest, 2005, Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football, International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 551, 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.03.003 Galton, 1907, Vox populi, Nature, 75, 450, 10.1038/075450a0 Goddard, 2005, Regression models for forecasting goals and match results in association football, International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 331, 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2004.08.002 Goddard, 2004, Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting, Journal of Forecasting, 23, 51, 10.1002/for.877 Graham, 2008, Predicting bookmaker odds and efficiency for UK football, Applied Economics, 40, 99, 10.1080/00036840701728799 Greene, 1999 Hill, 1974, Association football and statistical inference, The American Statistician, 23, 203 Johnstone, 2007, Economic Darwinism: Who has the best probabilities?, Theory and Decision, 62, 47, 10.1007/s11238-006-9006-2 Kelly, 1956, A new interpretation of information rate, The Bell System Technical Journal, 35, 917, 10.1002/j.1538-7305.1956.tb03809.x Knorr-Held, 2000, Dynamic rating of sports teams, The Statistician, 49, 261, 10.1111/1467-9884.00236 Kuypers, 2000, Information and efficiency: An empirical study of a fixed odds betting market, Applied Economics, 32, 1353, 10.1080/00036840050151449 Levitt, 2004, Why are gambling markets organized so differently from financial markets?, The Economic Journal, 114, 223, 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2004.00207.x Maher, 1982, Modelling association football scores, Statistica Neerlandica, 36, 109, 10.1111/j.1467-9574.1982.tb00782.x Paton, 2005, Forecasting outcomes in spread betting markets: Can bettors use ‘quarbs’ to beat the book?, Journal of Forecasting, 24, 139, 10.1002/for.949 Rue, 2000, Prediction and retrospective analysis of soccer matches in a league, The Statistician, 49, 399, 10.1111/1467-9884.00243 Sauer, 1998, The economics of wagering markets, Journal of Economic Literature, 36, 2021 Shannon, 1948, A mathematical theory of communication, The Bell System Technical Journal, 27, 379, 10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x Witten, 2005 Wright, 2009, 50 years of OR in sport, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 60, S161, 10.1057/jors.2008.170