Fiscal policy in EMU: simulating the operation of the Stability Pact

Journal of Policy Modeling - Tập 25 - Trang 179-206 - 2003
Karen Dury1, Álvaro M. Pina2
1National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London, UK
2ISEG/Univ. Técnica de Lisboa, R. Miguel Lupi 20, 1249-078 Lisbon, Portugal

Tài liệu tham khảo

Allsopp, C., McKibbin, W., & Vines, D. (1999). Fiscal consolidation in Europe: Some empirical issues. In A. Hughes Hallett, M. Hutchison, & S. Hougaard Jensen (Eds.), Fiscal aspects of European monetary integration (pp. 288–319). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Artis, 2000, Close to balance or in surplus: A policy maker’s guide to the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact, Journal of Common Market Studies, 38, 563, 10.1111/1468-5965.00254 Artis, 1998, The Stability Pact: Safeguarding the credibility of the European Central Bank, National Institute Economic Review, 163, 87, 10.1177/002795019816300110 Artis, M., & Winkler, B. (1999). The Stability Pact: Trading off flexibility for credibility? In A. Hughes Hallett, M. Hutchison, & S. Hougaard Jensen (Eds.), Fiscal aspects of European monetary integration (pp. 157–188). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Barrell, R., Dury, K., & Hurst, I. (1999). An encompassing framework for evaluating simple monetary policy rules. NIESR Discussion Paper No. 156. Barrell, R., Dury, K., & Hurst, I. (2000). International monetary policy coordination: An evaluation of cooperative strategies using a large econometric model. NIESR Discussion Paper No. 160. Barrell, R., & Pina, A. (2003). How important are automatic stabilisers in Europe? A stochastic simulation assessment. NIESR Discussion Paper No. 196. Forthcoming in Economic Modelling. Barrell, 1997, Fiscal policy and the Maastricht solvency criteria, The Manchester School, 65, 259, 10.1111/1467-9957.00056 Barrell, R., Sefton, J., & in’t Veld, J. (1994). Fiscal solvency and fiscal policy. NIESR Discussion Paper No. 67. Bayoumi, 1995, Do credit markets discipline sovereign borrowers? Evidence from US states, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 27, 1046, 10.2307/2077788 Beetsma, R., & Jensen, H. (1999). Risk sharing and moral hazard with a Stability Pact. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2167. Buti, 1997, Budgetary policies during recessions: Retrospective application of the Stability and Growth Pact to the post-war period, Recherches Economiques de Louvain, 63, 321, 10.1017/S077045180001085X Buti, 1998, Fiscal discipline and flexibility in EMU: The implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 14, 81, 10.1093/oxrep/14.3.81 Buti, 2001, Stabilizing output and inflation: Policy conflicts and co-operation under a Stability Pact, Journal of Common Market Studies, 39, 801, 10.1111/1468-5965.00332 Casella, 1999, Tradable deficit permits: Efficient implementation of the Stability Pact in the European Monetary Union, Economic Policy, 29, 321, 10.1111/1468-0327.00052 Currie, D., & Levine, P. (1993). Rules, reputation and macroeconomic policy coordination. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Dury, K., & Pina, A. (2000). Fiscal policy in EMU: Simulating the operation of the Stability Pact. EUI Working Paper ECO No. 2000/3. Eichengreen, 1998, The Stability Pact: More than a minor nuisance?, Economic Policy, 26, 65, 10.1111/1468-0327.00029 European Central Bank. (1999). The stability-oriented monetary policy strategy of the Eurosystem (pp. 39–50). Monthly Bulletin, January. Fair, R. (1993). Estimating event probabilities from macroeconometric models using stochastic simulation. In J. Stock & M. Watson (Eds.), Business cycles, indicators, and forecasting. NBER studies in business cycles 28 (pp. 157–178). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Fair, 1983, Solution and maximum likelihood estimation of dynamic non-linear rational expectations models, Econometrica, 51, 1169, 10.2307/1912057 Fair, 1990, Full information estimation and stochastic simulation of models with rational expectations, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 5, 381, 10.1002/jae.3950050406 Fatás, A., & Mihov, I. (2001). Fiscal policy and EMU. Mimeo. Hughes Hallett, A., & McAdam, P. (1999). Implications of the Stability and Growth Pact: Why the “Growth” element is important. In A. Hughes Hallett, M. Hutchison, & S. Hougaard Jensen (Eds.), Fiscal aspects of European monetary integration (pp. 216–253). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Mitchell, 2000, Fiscal policy rules in macroeconomic models: Principles and practice, Economic Modelling, 17, 171, 10.1016/S0264-9993(99)00026-7 NIESR. (1999a). The World Economy. National Institute Economic Review, 168, 32–69. NIESR. (1999b). The World Model manual. Mimeo, April. Poterba, J., & Rueben, K. (1997). State fiscal institutions and the US municipal bond market. NBER Working Paper No. 6237. Svensson, 1997, Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets, European Economic Review, 41, 1111, 10.1016/S0014-2921(96)00055-4 Url, T. (1997). How serious is the Pact on stability and growth? WIFO Working Papers No. 92. von Hagen, J., Hughes Hallett, A., & Strauch, R. (2001). Budgetary consolidation in EMU. ECFIN Economic Papers No. 148.