Environmental factors shaping habitat suitability of Gyps vultures: climate change impact modelling for conservation in India

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 31 - Trang 119-140 - 2023
Radhika Jha1, Kaushalendra Kumar Jha2
1Zoology Department, University of Lucknow, Lucknow, India
2Indian Institute of Forest Management, Bhopal, India

Tóm tắt

Out of eight Gyps species in the world, three residents (G. bengalensis, G. indicus, G. tenuirostris) and two migratory (G. fulvus, G. himalayensis) inhabit Indian forests and other landscapes. While Himalayan and Eurasian Gyps are near threatened and least concerned species, respectively, the resident Gyps are critically endangered. They are facing modification in habitats caused by anthropogenic factors and are enduring climate change. The impact of climate change has been insufficiently studied. The aim of this study is to predict current and future habitat suitability for these vultures shaped by bioenvironmental factors using maximum-entropy species distribution modelling. Seventy-one robust predictions and models, species and scenario wise (AUC 0.780 to 0.981, TSS 0.478 to 0.852 and CBI 0.978 to 0.997) were generated. Whole Indian landscape (3,287,263 km2) was categorised into unsuitable, moderately suitable and highly suitable habitats and analysed floristic region-wise. There was a reasonable change in habitat suitability which showed a trend of decrease in the suitable area in the future (3287 to 65,745 km2). The key environmental variables shaping current and future habitat included land use/land cover, annual mean temperature (bio1), precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19), precipitation seasonality (bio15) and precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18). Our results on the potential habitat in different floristic regions and projected change in future habitat will aid national and regional managers to design proactive approaches towards conservation of endangered Gyps vultures. Management interventions like in situ conservation, habitat maintenance, advance planning of habitat improvement, expansion of favourable area and protection of suitable area have been proposed.

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