An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 1980–2020

Copernicus GmbH - Tập 7 Số 16 - Trang 4419-4444
Toshimasa Ohara1,2, Hajime Akimoto1, Junichi Kurokawa2, Nobuhiro Horii3, Kazuyo Yamaji1, Xiaoyuan Yan4, Tadahiro Hayasaka5
1Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
2National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba Ibaraki, Japan
3Faculty of Economics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
4State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China
5Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto, Japan

Tóm tắt

Abstract. We developed a new emission inventory for Asia (Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS) Version 1.1) for the period 1980–2020. REAS is the first inventory to integrate historical, present, and future emissions in Asia on the basis of a consistent methodology. We present here emissions in 2000, historical emissions for 1980–2003, and projected emissions for 2010 and 2020 of SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) from fuel combustion and industrial sources. Total energy consumption in Asia more than doubled between 1980 and 2003, causing a rapid growth in Asian emissions, by 28% for BC, 30% for OC, 64% for CO, 108% for NMVOC, 119% for SO2, and 176% for NOx. In particular, Chinese NOx emissions showed a marked increase of 280% over 1980 levels, and growth in emissions since 2000 has been extremely high. These increases in China were mainly caused by increases in coal combustion in the power plants and industrial sectors. NMVOC emissions also rapidly increased because of growth in the use of automobiles, solvents, and paints. By contrast, BC, OC, and CO emissions in China showed decreasing trends from 1996 to 2000 because of a reduction in the use of biofuels and coal in the domestic and industry sectors. However, since 2000, Chinese emissions of these species have begun to increase. Thus, the emissions of air pollutants in Asian countries (especially China) showed large temporal variations from 1980–2003. Future emissions in 2010 and 2020 in Asian countries were projected by emission scenarios and from emissions in 2000. For China, we developed three emission scenarios: PSC (policy success case), REF (reference case), and PFC (policy failure case). In the 2020 REF scenario, Asian total emissions of SO2, NOx, and NMVOC were projected to increase substantially by 22%, 44%, and 99%, respectively, over 2000 levels. The 2020 REF scenario showed a modest increase in CO (12%), a lesser increase in BC (1%), and a slight decrease in OC (−5%) compared with 2000 levels. However, it should be noted that Asian total emissions are strongly influenced by the emission scenarios for China.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Akimoto, H. and Narita, H.: Distribution of SO2, NOx, and CO2 emissions from fuel combustion and industrial activities in Asia with 1°×1° resolution, Atmos. Environ., 28, 213–225, 1994.

Akimoto, H.: Global air quality and pollution, Science, 302, 1716–1719, 2003.

Akimoto, H. and Ohara, T.: Asian Inventories, in: Emissions of Atmospheric Trace Compounds, edited by: Granier, C., Artaxo, P., Reeves, C. E., Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht/Boston/London, 47–53, 2004.

Akimoto, H., Ohara, T., Kurokawa, J., and Horii, N.: Verification of energy consumption in China during 1996–2003 by satellite observation, Atmos. Environ., 40, 7663–7667, 2006.

Allen, D., Pickering, K., and Fox-Rabinovitz, M.: Evaluation of pollutant outflow and CO sources during TRACE-P using model-calculated, aircraft-based, and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT)-derived CO concentrations, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D15S03, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004250, 2004.

Amann, M., Bertok, I., Cofala, J., Gyarfas, F., Heyes, C., Klimont, Z., Makowski, M., Schoopp, W., and Syri, S.: Cost-effective control of acidification and ground-level ozone, Seventh Interim Report, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1999.

Bond, T. C., Streets, D. G., Yarber, K. F., Nelson, S. M., Woo, J.-H., and Klimont, Z.: A technology-based global inventory of black and organic carbon emissions from combustion, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D14203, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003697, 2004.

Cao, G., Zhang, X., and Zheng, F.: Inventory of black carbon and organic carbon emissions from China, Atmos. Environ., 40, 6516–6527, 2006.

Cass, G. R., Boone, P. M., and Macias, E. S.: Emissions and air quality relationships for atmospheric carbon particles in Los Angeles, in: Particulate carbon – atmospheric life cycle, edited by: Wolff, G. T. and Klimisch, R. L., Plenum, New York, 207–240, 1982.

Cofala, J., Amann, M., and Mechler, R.: Scenarios of world anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and methane up to 2030, Interim Report IR-06-023, available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/global_emiss/global_emiss.html, 2006.

Dickerson, R. R., Andreae, M. O., Campos, T., Mayol-Bracero, O. L., Neusuess, C., and Streets, D. G.: Analysis of black carbon and carbon monoxide observed over the Indian Ocean: implications for emissions and photochemistry, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 8017, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000501, 2002.

Downing, R. J., Ramankutty, R., and Shah, J. J.: Rains-Asia: An assessment model for acid deposition in Asia, The World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1997.

EEA (European Environment Agency): EMEP/CORINAIR Emission Inventory Guidebook, Copenhagen, available at: http://reports.eea.europa.eu/EMEPCORINAIR3/en/page002.html/, 2000.

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization): FAO Statistical Database, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, available at: http://www.fao.org, 2000.

Garg, A., Shukla, P. R., Bhattacharya, S., and Dadhwal, V. K.: Sub-region (district) and sector level SO2 and NOx emissions for India: assessment of inventories and mitigation flexibility, Atmos. Environ., 35, 703–713, 2001.

Hao, J., Tian, H., and Lu, Y.: Emission inventories of NOx from commercial energy consumption in China, 1995–1998, Environ. Sci. Technol., 36, 552–560, 2002.

IEA (International Energy Agency): World energy outlook, IEA, Paris, 2002.

IEA (International Energy Agency): Energy statistics of OECD countries and energy statistics of non-OECD countries, IEA, Paris, 2004.

IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis): RAINS-ASIA CD-ROM Version 7.52, Laxenburg, Austria, 2001.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): Revised 1996 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories, edited by: Houghton, J. T., Meira Filho, L. G., Lim, B., Treanton, K., et al., IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit, Bracknell, UK, 1997.

Irie, H., Sudo, K., Akimoto, H., Richter, A., Burrows, J. P., Wagner, T., Wenig, M., Beirle, S., Kondo, Y., Sinyakov, V. P., and Goutail, F.: Evaluation of long-term tropospheric NO2 data obtained by GOME over East Asia in 1996–2002, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L11810, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022770, 2005.

Minato, K.: Improving urban air quality in Asia, JARI (Japan Automobile Research Institute) Research Journal, 24, 477–481 [in Japanese], 2002.

Kannari, K., Tonooka, Y., Baba, T., and Murano, K.: Development of multiple-species 1 km$\\times $1 km resolution hourly basis emissions inventory for Japan, Atmos. Environ., 41, 3428–3439, 2007.

Kato, N., Ogawa, Y., Koike, T., Sakamoto, T., and Sakamoto, S.: Analysis of the structure of energy consumption and the dynamics of emissions of atmospheric species related to the global environmental change (\\chemSO_x, NO & CO) in Asia, NISTEP Report No 21, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, Japan, 1991.

Kato, N. and Akimoto, H.: Anthropogenic emissions of SO2 and NOx in Asia: emissions inventories, Atmos. Environ., 26, 2997–3017, 1992.

Klein Goldewijk, C. G. M. and Battjes, J. J.: A hundred year (1890–1990) database for integrated environmental assessments (HYDE, version 1.1), Report no 422514002, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands, 1997.

Klimont, Z., Cofala, J., Schopp, W., Amann, M., Streets, D. G., Ichikawa, Y., and Fujita, S.: Projection of SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOC emissions in East Asia up to 2030, Water Air Soil Poll., 130, 193–198, 2001.

Klimont, Z., Streets, D. G., Gupta, S., Cofala, J., Fu, L., and Ichikawa, Y.: Anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds in China, Atmos. Environ., 36, 1309–1322, 2002.

Nakicenovic, N. J. and Swart, R. (Eds.): IPCC special report on emissions scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, 2000.

National Bureau of Statistics: China energy statistical yearbook (1991–1996, 1997–1999, 2000–2002, 2004 editions), China Statistics Press, Beijing, 1997–2004.

National Bureau of Statistics: China statistical yearbook 2006, China Statistics Press, Beijing, 2006.

Nissan Automobile Corporation: Handbook of exhaust and fuel efficiency 2005, Atsugi, Japan [in Japanese], 2005.

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL): LandScan Global population 1998 Database, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., 1999.

Palmer, P. I., Jacob, D. J., Jones, D. B. A., Heald, C. L., Yantosca, R. M., Logan, J. A., Sachse, G. W., and Streets, D. G.: Inverting for emissions of carbon monoxide from Asia using aircraft observations over the western Pacific, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8828, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003397, 2003.

Parashar, D. C., Gadi, R., Mandal, T. K., and Mitra, A. P.: Carbonaceous aerosol emissions from India, Atmos. Environ., 39, 7861–7871, 2005.

Reddy, M. S. and Venkataraman, C.: Inventory of aerosol and sulphur dioxide emissions from India: Part I – Fossil fuel combustion, Atmos. Environ., 36, 677–697, 2002a.

Reddy, M. S. and Venkataraman, C.: Inventory of aerosol and sulphur dioxide emissions from India. Part II – Biomass combustion, Atmos. Environ., 36, 699–712, 2002b.

Richter, A., Burrows, P., Nues, H., Granier, C., and Niemeijer, U.: Increase in tropospheric nitrogen dioxide over China observed from space, Nature, 437, 129–130, 2005.

State Administration for Coal Safety: China Coal Industry Yearbook 2002, Coal Industry Publishing House, 2003.

SEPA (State Environmental Protection Administration): Report on the state of the environment in China, State Environmental Protection Administration of China, Beijing, 2003.

Streets, D. G. and Waldhoff, S. T.: Biofuel use in Asia and acidifying emissions, Energy, 23, 1029–1042, 1998.

Streets, D. G. and Waldhoff, S. T.: Present and future emissions of air pollutants in China: SO2, NOx and CO, Atmos. Environ., 34, 363–374, 2000.

Streets, D. G., Tsai, N. Y., Akimoto, H., and Oka, K.: Sulfur dioxide emissions in Asia in the period 1985–1997, Atmos. Environ., 34, 4413–4424, 2000.

Streets, D. G., Tsai, N. Y., Akimoto, H., and Oka, K.: Trends in emissions of acidifying species in Asia, 1985–1997, Water Air Soil Poll., 130, 187–192, 2001a.

Streets, D. G., Gupta, S., Waldhoff, S. T., Wang, M. Q., Bond, T. C., and Bo, Y.: Black carbon emissions in China, Atmos. Environ., 35, 4281–4296, 2001b.

Streets, D. G., Bond, T. C., Carmichael, G. R., Fernandes, S. D., Fu, Q., He, D., Klimont, Z., Nelson, S. M., Tsai, N. Y., Wang, M. Q., Woo, J.-H., and Yarber, K. F.: An inventory of gaseous and primary aerosol emissions in Asia in the year 2000, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8809, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD003093, 2003.

Streets, D. G., Bond, T. C., Lee, T., and Jang, C.: On the future of carbonaceous aerosol emissions, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D24212, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004902, 2004.

Streets, D. G., Zhang, Q., Wang, L., He, K., Hao, J., Wu, Y., Tang, Y., and Carmichael, G. R.: Revisiting China's CO emissions after the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) mission: synthesis of inventories, atmospheric modeling, and observations, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D14306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007118, 2006.

UN (United Nations): Statistical yearbook (twenty-seventh to forty-eighth issues), United Nations, New York, NY, 1983–2004.

Uno, I., He, Y., Ohara, T., Yamaji, K., Kurokawa, J., Katayama, M., Wang, Z., Noguchi, K., Hayashida, S., Richter, A., and Burrows, J. P.: Systematic analysis of interannual and seasonal variations of model-simulated tropospheric NO2 in Asia and comparison with GOME-satellite data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1671–1681, 2007.

US EPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency): Compilation of air pollutant emission factors (AP-42) Volume 1: point and area sources, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, 1999.

USGS (United States Geological Survey): USGS mineral yearbook volume III. – area reports: international, available at: http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/myb.html, 2006.

Van Aardenne, J. A., Carmichael, G. R., Levy, H., Streets, D., and Hordijk, L.: Anthropogenic NOx emissions in Asia in the period 1990–2020, Atmos. Environ., 33, 633–646, 1999.

Van Aardenne, J. A., Dentener, F. J., Olivier, J. G. J., Klein Goldewijk, C. G. M., and Lelieveld, J.: A 1°×1° resolution data set of historical anthropogenic trace gas emissions for the period 1890–1990, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 909–928, 2001.

Veldt, C. and Berdowski, J. J. M.: GEIA-note on the combustion of biomass fuels (emission factors for CO, CH4 and NMVOC), TNO-report, TNO-MW-R 94/218, 1995.

Wang, J., Yang, J., Ma, Z., and Benkovic, S.: SO2 Emission Trading Program-US Experience and China's Perspective, China Environmental Science Publishing Company, Beijing, 2000.

Wang, J., Yang, J., Benkovic, S., Schreifels, J., and Ma, Z.: SO2 Emission Trading Program-A feasibility study for China, China Environmental Science Publishing Company, Beijing, 2002.

World Bank: World Development Indicators 2006, The world bank, Washington, D.C., 2006.

Xue, Z., Yang, Z., Zhao, X., Chai, F., and Wang, W.: Distribution of SO2 and NOx emissions in China, 1995, Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Atmospheric Sciences and Applications to Air Quality, Beijing, China, 3–5 November, 1998.

Yamaji, K., Ohara, T., and Akimoto, H.: A country-specific, high-resolution emission inventory for methane from livestock in Asia in 2000, Atmos. Environ., 37, 4393–4406, 2003.

Yamaji, K., Ohara, T., and Akimoto, H.: Regional-specific emission inventory for NH3, N2O, and CH4 via animal farming in South, Southeast, and East Asia, Atmos. Environ., 38, 7111–7121, 2004.

Yan, X., Cai, Z. C., Ohara, T., and Akimoto, H.: Methane emission from rice fields in mainland China: amount and seasonal and spatial distribution, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4505, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD003182, 2003a.

Yan, X., Akimoto, H., and Ohara, T.: Estimation of nitrous oxide, nitric oxide, and ammonia emissions from croplands in East, Southeast, and South Asia, Global Change Biol., 9, 1080–1096, 2003b.

Yan, X., Ohara, T., and Akimoto, H.: Development of region-specific emission factors and estimation of methane emission from rice field in East, Southeast and south Asian countries, Global Change Biol., 9, 237–254, 2003c.

Yan, X., Ohara, T., and Akimoto, H.: Bottom-up estimate of biomass burning in mainland China, Atmos. Environ., 40, 5262–5273, 2006.

Yumimoto, K. and Uno, I.: Adjoint inverse modeling of CO emissions over Eastern Asia using four-dimensional variational data assimilation, Atmos. Environ., 40, 6836–6845, 2006.

Zhang, J., Smith, K. R., Uma, R., Ma, Y., Ye, S., Kishore, V. V. N., Lata, K., Khalil, M. A. K., Rasmussen, R. A., and Thorneloe, S. T.: Carbon monoxide from cookstoves in developing countries: 1. Emission factors, Chemosphere, 1, 353–366, 1999.

Zhang, J., Smith, K. R., Ma, Y., Ye, S., Jiang, F., Qi, W., Liu, P., Khalil, M. A. K., Rasmussen, R. A., and Thorneloe, S. A.: Greenhouse gases and other airborne pollutants from household stoves in China: a database for emission factors, Atmos. Environ., 34, 4537–4549, 2000.

Zhou, D., Dai, Y., Yi, C., Guo, Y., and Zhu, Y.: China's sustainable energy scenarios in 2020, China Environmental Science Press, Beijing [in Chinese], 2003.

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Copernicus GmbH

Tập 7 Số 16

4419-4444

Thông tin tác giả