Memory is key in capturing COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics

Epidemics - Tập 35 - Trang 100459 - 2021
Mircea T. Sofonea1, Bastien Reyné1, Baptiste Elie1, Ramsès Djidjou-Demasse1, Christian Selinger1, Yannis Michalakis1, Samuel Alizon1
1MIVEGEC, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, France

Tài liệu tham khảo

Boennec, 2021 Bolker, 2008 Bolker, 2020 Bouadma, 2020, Severe SARS-CoV-2 infections: practical considerations and management strategy for intensivists, Intensive Care Med., 46, 579, 10.1007/s00134-020-05967-x 2020, The species Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus : classifying 2019-nCoV and naming it SARS-CoV-2, Nat. Microbiol., 1 Danesh, 2020 Di Domenico, 2020, Expected impact of lockdown in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies, Inf. Dis. (except HIV/AIDS) Djidjou-Demasse, 2020, Optimal COVID-19 epidemic control until vaccine deployment, Inf. Dis. (except HIV/AIDS) 2020 Ferguson, 2020 Ferretti, 2020, Quantifying dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests that epidemic control and avoidance is feasible through instantaneous digital contact tracing, medRxiv Flaxman, 2020, Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe, Nature., 10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7 Forien, 2020, Estimating the state of the Covid-19 epidemic in France using a non-Markovian model, medRxiv. Fraser, 2004, Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 101, 6146, 10.1073/pnas.0307506101 Halpern, 2011, ICU capacity strain and the quality and allocation of critical care, Curr. Opin. Crit. Care, 17, 648, 10.1097/MCC.0b013e32834c7a53 He, 2020, Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19, Nat. Med. Hoertel, 2020, Lockdown exit strategies and risk of a second epidemic peak: a stochastic agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France, medRxiv. 2020 Keeling, 1999, The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B, 266, 859, 10.1098/rspb.1999.0716 Keeling, 2008 Kermack, 1927, A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics, Proc. R Soc. Lond. A., 115, 700, 10.1098/rspa.1927.0118 Li, 2020, Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus - infected pneumonia, N. Engl. J. Med., 382, 1199, 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 Li, 2020, Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), Science, 368, 489, 10.1126/science.abb3221 Linton, 2020, Novel coronavirus infections with right truncation: A statistical analysis of publicly available case data, J. Clin. Med., 9, 538, 10.3390/jcm9020538 Muller, 2017 Nishiura, 2020, Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections, Int. J. Infect. Dis., 93, 284, 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.060 2020 Reyné, 2020 Salje, 2020, Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France, Science., 10.1126/science.abc3517 2020 2020 Trapman, 2016, Inferring R 0 in emerging epidemics—the effect of common population structure is small, J. R. Soc. Interface, 13, 10.1098/rsif.2016.0288 Verity, 2020, Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis, Lancet Infect. Dis., 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7 Weissman, 2020, Locally informed simulation to predict hospital capacity needs during the COVID-19 pandemic, Ann. Int. Med., 10.7326/L20-1062 Wilks, 1938, The large-sample distribution of the likelihood ratio for testing composite hypotheses, Ann. Math. Stat., 9, 60, 10.1214/aoms/1177732360