Encounter risk prediction of rich-poor precipitation using a combined copula
Tóm tắt
Encounter risk precipitation of rich-poor precipitation is beneficial for the utilization of flood resources and rational allocation of water resources which often involves a challenging task—estimating the joint probability distribution function (PDF) of multiple hydrologic variables using copulas. This paper introduced a linear combination of three copulas (combined copula) to study probabilistic characteristics of precipitation in two watersheds. To validate the performance of the combined copula, four experiments were employed to identify the joint distribution for the summer monthly precipitation and annual precipitation at two pairs of neighboring stations in Jinghe River, China, which were then compared with three individual copulas, namely, Gumbel copula, Clayton copula, and Frank copula. All the experiments showed that the combined copula performed much better than any of the three individual copulas. The combined copula was further applied to predict the synchronous-asynchronous probabilities of the summer monthly precipitation and annual precipitation at those four stations in Jinghe River. The rich-normal-poor synchronous encounter probabilities of the summer monthly precipitation reach up to 0.7 and 0.63 for Guyuan-Pingliang stations and Huanxian-Xifeng stations, respectively. The rich-normal-poor synchronous encounter probabilities of the annual precipitation reach up to 0.6 and 0.59 for the Guyuan-Pingliang stations and the Huanxian-Xifeng stations, respectively. Moreover, the encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation between receiving areas of Haihe River and upper reaches of Han River was calculated by the combined copula, and the probability that is suitable to transfer water is about 0.35.
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