The potential of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for semi-quantitative scenario development, with an example from Brazil
Tài liệu tham khảo
Alcamo, J., 2001. Scenarios as tools for international environmental assessments. Environmental issue report 24. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen.
Axelrod, 1976
Bennett, 2005, A systems model approach to determining resilience surrogates for case studies, Ecosystems, 8, 945, 10.1007/s10021-005-0141-3
Câmara, 2005, Amazonian deforestation models, Science, 307, 1043, 10.1126/science.307.5712.1043c
2005
Carpenter, 2006, Scenarios for ecosystem services: an overview, Ecology and Society, 11, 29, 10.5751/ES-01610-110129
Carvalho, 2004, Qualitative modelling of an economic system using rule-based Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Fuzzy Systems, 25–29, 659
Cattaneo, A., 2002. Balancing agricultural development and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Report 129. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC.
Çoban, 2005, Prediction of socio-economical consequences of privatization at the firm level with fuzzy cognitive mapping, Information Sciences, 169, 131, 10.1016/j.ins.2004.02.009
Cole, 2000, Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping: applications in education, International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 15, 1, 10.1002/(SICI)1098-111X(200001)15:1<1::AID-INT1>3.0.CO;2-V
Cumming, 2005, Ecology in global scenarios, 45
Cumming, 2005, Are existing global scenarios consistent with ecological feedbacks?, Ecosystems, 8, 143, 10.1007/s10021-004-0075-1
EEA, 2007. Land-use scenarios for Europe: qualitative and quantitative analysis on a European scale. EEA Technical Report No. 9. EEA, Copenhagen.
Eisenack, 2007, Qualitative modeling techniques to assess patterns of global change, 83
Fearnside, 2001, Soybean cultivation as a threat to the environment in Brazil, Environmental Conservation, 28, 23, 10.1017/S0376892901000030
Fearnside, 2003, Conservation policy in Brazilian Amazonia: understanding the dilemmas, World Development, 31, 757, 10.1016/S0305-750X(03)00011-1
Folke, 2006, Resilience: the emergence of a perspective for social–ecological systems analyses, Global Environmental Change, 16, 253, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.04.002
Gallopín, G., Hammond, A., Raskin, P., Swart, R., 1997. Branch Points: global scenarios and human choice. A Resource Paper of the Global Scenario Group. PoleStar Series Report No. 7. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm.
Giles, 2007, Integrating conventional science and aboriginal perspectives on diabetes using fuzzy cognitive maps, Social Science & Medicine, 64, 562, 10.1016/j.socscimed.2006.09.007
2002
Holling, 1973, Resilience and stability of ecological systems, Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 4, 1, 10.1146/annurev.es.04.110173.000245
Kaimowitz, 1998
Kaimowitz, 2004
Kämäri, J., Alcamo, J., Bärlund, I., Duel, H., Farquharson, F., Flörke, M., Fry, M., Houghton-Carr, H., Kabat, P., Kaljonen, M., Kok, K., Meijer, K.S., Rekolainen, S., Sendzimir, S., Varjopuro, R., Villars, N., 2008. Envisioning the future of water in Europe – the SCENES project. E-Water online publication. Access:<http://www.ewaonline.de/portale/ewa/ewa.nsf/home?readform&objectid=37F6CB0C75D068CFC125748E004F6FDB>.
Khan, 2004, Group decision support using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for causal reasoning, Group Decision and Negotiation, 13, 463, 10.1023/B:GRUP.0000045748.89201.f3
Kok, 2006, Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective. Part II. Participatory local scenario development, Futures, 38, 285, 10.1016/j.futures.2005.07.006
Kok, 2007, Integrated assessment of the land system: the future of land use. Guest editorial Special Issue, Land Use Policy, 24, 517, 10.1016/j.landusepol.2006.04.007
Kok, 2009, Combining two approaches of integrated scenario development to combat desertification in the Guadalentín watershed, Spain, Environment and Planning B, 36, 49, 10.1068/b32137
Kosko, 1986, Fuzzy cognitive maps, International Journal of Man-Machine Studies, 24, 65, 10.1016/S0020-7373(86)80040-2
Koulouriotis, 2003, Efficiently modeling and controlling complex dynamic systems using evolutionary fuzzy cognitive maps, International Journal of Computation Cognition, 1, 41
Laurance, 2001, The future of the Brazilian Amazon, Science, 291, 438, 10.1126/science.291.5503.438
Lundquist, 2007, The relative influence of diseases and other small-scale disturbances on fuel loading in the Black Hills, Plant Disease, 91, 147, 10.1094/PDIS-91-2-0147
Özesmi, 2003, A participatory approach to ecosystem conservation: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and stakeholder group analysis in Uluabat Lake, Turkey, Environmental Management, 31, 518, 10.1007/s00267-002-2841-1
Özesmi, 2004, Ecological models based on people's knowledge: a multi-step Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping approach, Ecological Modelling, 176, 43, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2003.10.027
Pacheco, P., 2005. Populist and capitalist frontiers in the Amazon: diverging dynamics of agrarian and land-use change. Unpublished Ph.D. Thesis. Clark University, Worcester.
Pearl, 2000
Peterson, 2003, Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain world, Conservation Biology, 17, 358, 10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01491.x
Raskin, P., Gallopín, G., Gutman, P., Hammond, A., Swart, R., 1998. Bending the curve: toward global sustainability. PoleStar Series Report No. 8. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm.
Raskin, P., Tariq, B., Gallopín, G., Gutman, P., Hammond, A., Kates, R., Swart, R., 2002. Great transition: the promise and lure of the times ahead. A report of the Global Scenario Group. SEI PoleStar Series Report No. 10. Stockholm Environment Institute, Boston.
Runyon, 1991
Scouvart, 2007, Causes of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: a qualitative comparative analysis, Journal of Land Use Science, 2, 257, 10.1080/17474230701785929
Soares-Filho, 2006, Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin, Nature, 440, 520, 10.1038/nature04389
Stach, 2005, Genetic learning of fuzzy cognitive maps, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 153, 371, 10.1016/j.fss.2005.01.009
Sterman, 2000
UNEP, 2007
Veldkamp, A., Van Altvorst, A.C., Eweg, R., Jacobsen, E., Van Kleef, A., Van Latesteijn, H., Mager, S., Mommaas, H., Smeets, P.J.A.M., Spaans, L., Van Trijp, J.C.M., in press. Triggering transitions towards sustainable development of the Dutch agricultural sector: TransForum's approach. Agronomy for Sustainable Development 28. doi:10.1051/agro:2008022.
Walker, 2004, Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social–ecological systems, Ecology and Society, 9, 5, 10.5751/ES-00650-090205