An agent-based model to study market penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

Energy Policy - Tập 39 - Trang 3789-3802 - 2011
Margaret J. Eppstein1, David K. Grover2, Jeffrey S. Marshall2, Donna M. Rizzo2
1Department of Computer Science, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA
2School of Engineering, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA

Tài liệu tham khảo

Albert, 2002, Statistical mechanics of complex networks, Reviews of Modern Physics, 74, 47, 10.1103/RevModPhys.74.47 Anderson, 2009, Integrating private transport into renewable energy policy: the strategy of creating intelligent recharging grids for electric vehicles, Energy Policy, 37, 2481, 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.03.032 Andersson, 2010, Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as regulating power providers: case studies of Sweden and Germany, Energy Policy, 38, 2751, 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.01.006 Axelrod, 1997, The dissemination of culture: a model of with local convergence and global polarization, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 40, 203, 10.1177/0022002797041002001 Axsen, J., Kurani, K.S., 2008. The early U.S. market for PHEVs: anticipating consumer awareness, recharge potential, design priorities and energy impacts. Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-08-22, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California Davis. Bednar, 2007, Can game(s) theory explain culture? The emergence of cultural behavior within multiple games, Rationality and Society, 19, 65, 10.1177/1043463107075108 Bolduc, 2008, Hybrid choice modeling of new technologies for car choice in Canada, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2082, 63, 10.3141/2082-08 Borrmann, R., 2010. Air district approves $5 million for electric vehicle recharging stations. Bay Area Air Quality Management District New Release, August 4, 2010 〈http://www.baaqmd.gov/∼/media/Files/Communications%20and%20Outreach/Publications/News%20Releases/2010/charge_100804.ashx〉. Bose, J., Giesbrecht, L., Sharp, J., et al., 2003. NHTS 2001 Highlights Report. U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Report BTS03-05, Washington, DC. British Columbia Automobile Association, 2010. BCAA 2010 Annual Hybrid Cost Analysis 〈http://www.bcaa.com/downloads/BCAA_Hybrid_Cost_Analysis_2010.pdf〉. Curtin, 2009 Dethman & Associates, 2004. ENERGY STAR® Home Products Program: Market Progress Evaluation Report, No. 2. Report #E04-131 〈http://neea.org/research/reports/131.pdf〉. Dia, 2002, An agent-based approach to modelling drive route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information, Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 10, 331, 10.1016/S0968-090X(02)00025-6 Diamond, 2009, The impact of government incentives for hybrid-electric vehicles: evidence from US states, Energy Policy, 37, 972, 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.094 de Haan, 2009, How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars—part II. Forecasting effects of feebates based on energy-efficiency, Energy Policy, 37, 1083, 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.11.003 Duvall, M., Knipping, E., Alexander, M., Tonachel, L., Clark, C., 2007. Environmental assessment of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, vol. 1. Nationwide greenhouse gas emissions. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA, Report 1015325. Emery, 2008, A turning bands program for conditional co-simulation of cross-correlated Gaussian random fields, Computers Geosciences, 34, 1850, 10.1016/j.cageo.2007.10.007 Eppstein, 1999, Biomedical optical tomography using dynamic parameterization and Bayesian conditioning on photon migration measurements, Applied Optics, 38, 2138, 10.1364/AO.38.002138 Granovetter, 1978, Threshold models of collective behavior, American Journal of Sociology, 83, 1420, 10.1086/226707 Griskevicius, 2010, Going green to be seen: status, reputation, and conspicuous conservation, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology., 98, 392, 10.1037/a0017346 Heffner, 2007, Symbolism in California's early market for hybrid electric vehicles, Transportation Research Part D, 12, 396, 10.1016/j.trd.2007.04.003 Henesey, 2005, An analysis of agent-based approaches to transport logistics, Transportation Research Part C, 13, 255, 10.1016/j.trc.2005.07.002 Jaramillo, 2009, Greenhouse gas implications of using coal for transportation: life cycle assessment of coal-to-liquids, plug-in hybrids, and hydrogen pathways, Energy Policy, 37, 2689, 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.03.001 Kahneman, 2003, Maps of bounded rationality: psychology for behavioral economics, The American Economic Review, 93, 1449, 10.1257/000282803322655392 Mau, 2008, The ‘neighbor effect’: simulating dynamics in consumer preferences for new vehicle technologies, Ecological Economics, 68, 504, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.05.007 McPherson, 2001, Birds of a feather: homophily in Social Networks, Annual Review of Sociology, 27, 415, 10.1146/annurev.soc.27.1.415 Morrow, 2010, Analysis of policies to reduce oil consumption and greenhouse-gas emissions from the US transportation sector, Energy Policy, 38, 1305, 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.006 Mueller, 2009, How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars—part I. Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation, Energy Policy, 37, 1072, 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.11.002 Newig, 2004, Modelling the dynamics of public attention towards environmental issues Offer, 2010, Comparative analysis of battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system, Energy Policy, 38, 24, 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.08.040 Pellon, 2010, An agent-based model for estimating consumer adoption of PHEV technology, Transportation Research Board (TRB), 10 Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2009 Skerlos, 2010, Targeting plug-in hybrid electric vehicle policies to increase social benefits, Energy Policy, 38, 705, 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.014 Smith, 2010, Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles—a low-carbon solution for Ireland?, Energy Policy, 38, 1485, 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.031 Sovacool, 2009, Beyond batteries: an examination of the benefits and barriers to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and a vehicle-to-grid (V2G) transition, Energy Policy, 37, 1095, 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.005 Sullivan, J.L., Salmeen, I.T., Simon, C.P., 2009. PHEV marketplace penetration: an agent based simulation. University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute Report UMTRI-2009-32 〈http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/63507〉. Turrentine, 2007, Car buyers and fuel economy?, Energy Policy, 35, 1213, 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.03.005 Watts, 2002, A simple model of global cascades on random networks, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99, 5766, 10.1073/pnas.082090499 Yin, 1999, Elite opinion and media diffusion: exploring environmental attitudes, Harvard International Journal of Press Politics, 4.3, 62, 10.1177/1081180X99004003006 Zypryme Research and Consulting, 2010. The Electric Vehicle Study 〈http://www.zpryme.com/SmartGridInsights/The_Electric_Vehicle_Study_Zpryme_Smart_Grid_Insights_Airbiquity_Sponsor_December_2010.pdf〉.