Estimation of long-term extreme response of operational and parked wind turbines: Validation and some new insights

Carta, 2009, A review of wind speed probability distributions used in wind energy analysis case studies in the Canary Islands, Renew Sust Energy Rev, 13, 933, 10.1016/j.rser.2008.05.005 Castillo, 2005 Chavez-Demoulin, 2012, Modelling time series extremes, REVSTAT – Stat J, 10, 109 Chen, 2005, Proper orthogonal decomposition-based modeling, analysis and simulation of wind loads and their effects, J Struct Eng, 131, 325 Chen, 2010, Estimation of probabilistic extreme wind load effects: combination of aerodynamic and wind climate data, J Eng Mech, 136, 747, 10.1061/(ASCE)EM.1943-7889.0000118 Coles, 1994, Statistical methods for multivariate extremes: an application to structural design (with discussion), J Roy Stat Soc C, 43, 1 Cook, 1982, Towards better estimation of extreme winds, J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn, 9, 295, 10.1016/0167-6105(82)90021-6 de Zea Bermudez, 2010, Parameter estimation of the generalized Pareto distribution – Part I, J Stat Plan Inf, 140, 1353, 10.1016/j.jspi.2008.11.019 Ding, 2013, Assessing small failure probability by importance splitting method and its application to wind turbine extreme response prediction, Eng Struct, 54, 180, 10.1016/j.engstruct.2013.03.051 Ding, 2013, Comparison of statistical extrapolation methods for the evaluation of long-term extreme response of wind turbine, Eng Struct, 57, 100, 10.1016/j.engstruct.2013.09.017 Field, 2012, A method for the efficient construction and sampling of vector-valued translation random fields, Prob Eng Mech, 29, 79, 10.1016/j.probengmech.2011.09.003 Freudenreich, 2008, Wind turbine load level based on extrapolation and simplified methods, Wind Energy, 11, 589, 10.1002/we.279 Gioffre, 2000, Simulation of non-Gaussian field applied to wind pressure fluctuations, Probab Eng Mech, 15, 339, 10.1016/S0266-8920(99)00035-1 Grigoriu, 1995 Gurley, 1997, Analysis and simulation tools for wind engineering, Prob Eng Mech, 12, 9, 10.1016/S0266-8920(96)00010-0 Harris, 1982, An improved method for the prediction of extreme values of wind effects on simple buildings and structures, J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn, 9, 343, 10.1016/0167-6105(82)90023-X Harris, 2005, A new direct version of the Cook–Mayne method for wind pressure probabilities in temperate storms, J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn, 93, 581, 10.1016/j.jweia.2005.05.004 International Electrotechnical Commission. Wind turbines-Part 1: Design requirement. IEC 61400-1 Edition 3. Geneva, Switzerland: HIS; 2005. Jonkman JM, Buhl Jr ML. FAST user’s guide. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL/EL-500-38230, Golden, Colorado; 2005. Jonkman JM, Butterfield S, Musial W, Scott G. Definition of a 5-MW reference wind turbine for offshore system development. NREL/TP-500-38060, Golden, Colorado; 2009. Karpa, 2013, Extreme value statistics of wind speed data by the ACER method, J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn, 112, 1, 10.1016/j.jweia.2012.10.001 Moriarty, 2002, Effect of turbulence variation on extreme loads prediction for wind turbines, J Solar Energy Eng, 124, 387, 10.1115/1.1510137 Natarajan, 2008, Statistical extreme load extrapolation with quadratic distortions for wind turbines, J Solar Energy Eng, 130, 10.1115/1.2931513 Pandey, 2003, Bootstrap simulations for evaluating the uncertainty associated with peaks-over-threshold estimates of extreme wind velocity, Environmetrics, 14, 27, 10.1002/env.555 Ragan, 2008, Statistical extrapolation methods for estimating wind turbine extreme loads, J Solar Energy Eng, 130, 10.1115/1.2931501 Schroeder, 2005, The West Texas Mesonet: a technical overview, J Atmos Ocean Technol, 22, 211, 10.1175/JTECH-1690.1 Shields, 2011, A simple and efficient methodology to approximate a general non-Gaussian stationary stochastic process by a translation process, Prob Eng Mech, 26, 511, 10.1016/j.probengmech.2011.04.003 Shinozuka, 1996, Simulation of multidimensional Gaussian stochastic fields by spectral representation, Appl Mech Rev, 49, 29, 10.1115/1.3101883 Simiu, 1996 Simiu, 1996, Extreme wind distribution tails: a peaks over threshold approach, J Struct Eng, 122, 539, 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(1996)122:5(539) Smith, 1994, Estimating the extremal index, J Roy Stat Soc B, 56, 515 Toft, 2011, Response load extrapolation for wind turbines during operation based on average conditional exceedance rates, Wind Energy, 14, 749, 10.1002/we.455 Van der Hoven, 1957, Power spectrum of horizontal wind speed in the frequency range from 0.0007 to 900 cycles per hour, J Meteorol, 14, 160, 10.1175/1520-0469(1957)014<0160:PSOHWS>2.0.CO;2 Winterstein, 1988, Nonlinear vibration models for extremes and fatigue, J Eng Mech, 114, 1772, 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9399(1988)114:10(1772) Xu Z, BeKele S, Mikitiuk M, Isyumov N, Ho E. Bi-modal Weibull distribution fit for climatic wind speed histogram. In: Proc 13th Australasian wind engineering society workshop, Hobart, Australia, 2008.