On the Future of Technological Forecasting

Elsevier BV - Tập 67 - Trang 1-17 - 2001
Vary Coates, Mahmud Farooque, Richard Klavans, Koty Lapid, Harold A. Linstone, Carl Pistorius, Alan L. Porter

Tài liệu tham khảo

1937 Schnaars, 1993, Five modern lessons from a 55-year-old technological forecast, Journal of Product Innovation Management, 10, 66, 10.1016/0737-6782(93)90054-T Bush, V.: Science—The Endless Frontier. National Science Foundation (NSF 90-8). Washington, DC, 1990 (orig. ed. 1945). Roussel, 1991 Esch, 1972, Honeywell's PATTERN Gordon, 1964 Martino, 1972 Jantsch, 1967 Lenz, 1969 1975 1968 Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Elsevier Science Inc., New York, 1969 to present. Futures. Pergamon, Elsevier Science Ltd., Oxford, UK: 1970 to present. Smith, 1991 Coates, 1994, Technological forecasting, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 47, 23, 10.1016/0040-1625(94)90037-X Coates, 1976, Technology assessment, Chemtech, 6, 372 Porter, 1991 Bimber, B.: The Politics of Expertise in Congress: The Rise and Fall of the Office of Technology Assessment. The State University of New York Press, Albany, NY, 1996. Coates, V.: Technology forecasting and assessment in the United States: Status and prospects, Futures Research Quarterly, 15(3) (1999). Grupp, 1999, National foresight projects, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 60, 1 Porter, 1990 Braun, 1998 Martino, 1993 Ashton, W. B., and Klavens, R. A., eds.: Keeping Abreast of Science and Technology. Battelle Press, 1997. Du Preez, 1999, Technological threat and opportunity assessment, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 61, 215, 10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00037-2 Tushman, 1997 Utterback, 1994 Van Wyk, 1996, The corporate board and the need for technology analysis Lane, P., and Makri, M.: Responding to diminishing technological opportunities: A socio-cognitive model of science and innovation, Arizona State University College of Business, working paper, 2000. Kostoff, R. N., and Schaller, R. R.: Science and Technology Roadmaps. George Mason University School of Public Policy Working Paper No. 99:3 (1999). Linstone, 1968, On Mirages Linstone, 1962, An approach to long-range planning A. D. Little, Inc.: Basic Research in the Navy: A Report to the Naval Research Advisory Committee, June 1, 1959; U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Washington, DC, (2 volumes). Martin, 1989 Kuwahara, 1999, Technology forecasting activities in Japan. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 60, 5, 10.1016/S0040-1625(98)00048-1 Blind, 1999, Technology forecasting activities in Central Europe, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 60, 15, 10.1016/S0040-1625(98)00021-3 Schon, 1967, Forecasting and technological forecasting, Daedalus, 96, 759 Coates, 1997 Gausemeier, 1998, Scenario management, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 59, 111, 10.1016/S0040-1625(97)00166-2 Clarke, 2000, Strategically evolving the future, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 64, 133, 10.1016/S0040-1625(00)00082-2 Allison, 1971 Churchman, 1971 Linstone, 1999 Rycroft, 1999 Garfield, E.: Mapping the structure of science in Citation Indexing: Its Theory and Application in Science, Technology and Humanities. Wiley, New York, 1979. pp. 98–147 Norling, P. M., et al.: Putting competitive technology intelligence to work, Research and Technology Management Sept/Oct, 25–26 (2000). Kostoff, R. N.: Multiple reports on text mining: http://www.scicentral.com/G-scipol.html#reports; http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/kostoff/index.html. Watts, 1997, Innovation forecasting, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 56, 25, 10.1016/S0040-1625(97)00050-4 Swanson, 1997, An interactive system for finding complementary literatures, Artificial Intelligence, 91, 183, 10.1016/S0004-3702(97)00008-8 Epstein, J. M., and Axtell, R.: Growing Artificial Societies. Brookings Institution, Washington, DC; and The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1996. Pistorius, 1995, The death knells of mature technologies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 50, 133, 10.1016/0040-1625(95)00077-N Boorstin, 1994 Brooks, H.: Herbert Spencer Series on Technology and Society lecture, University of Pennsylvania, April 14, 1976. Dror, 1999, Beyond Uncertainty, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 62, 151, 10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00017-7 Wenk, 1977, Interinstitutional networks in technological delivery systems, 153